"The Warren Buffet related Muni-Bond insurance plan was a positive catalyst," notes options and market timing expert Larry McMillan in The Daily Strategist. Here, he looks at the overall market and some select buy signals in individual stocks.
"The multiple re-tests of the support area around 1310-1320 has inspired confidence as buyers have emerged. And the S&P 500 Index has been able to stage a strong rally above the 1350 level in the interim. This is a first positive step.
"Sector support behind the rally remains primarily in the Energy sector: however, the Financial sector has joined in somewhat. A continuation of these sectors rallying in concert would bode well for a continuation of he current rally.
Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil and natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, barring the discovery of a cheap, widely available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Ultra Petroleum is worth an evaluation.
Ultra Petroleum (AMEX: UPL) is in independent oil/natural gas company with core properties in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming
Analysts like UPL's proven reserves of 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, modest cost structure, adequate-to-good pricing power and likely production increases. The latter stems from the start of operations at the Rocky Express Pipeline in 2008, among other efforts. Further, look for UPL to attract increased attention from investors as the value and benefits of natural gas rise amid continued high oil prices. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for UPL are $1.29/$2.37.
What are the best energy investments for long-term investors? To answer this question, I surveyed 20 of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors to find their current favorite ideas in the energy sector.
Interestingly, the advisors see the best opportunities in areas well beyond traditional oil firms; indeed, no one included in this report chose a major integrated oil company. Rather, the advisors have shown a preference for various oil services sectors, non-oil energy sources, and developing alternative technologies.
Others chose companies that make specific products needed by the oil & gas industries such as NATCO Group Inc. (NYSE: NTG), which makes a wide range of oil & gas processing systems; Dresser-Rand Group Inc. (NYSE: DRC), a maker of control systems; Gardner Denver Inc. (NYSE: GDI), which makes compressor and fluid transfer systems; Tenaris (NYSE: TS), a maker of pipes and tublar products and Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), the largest and most diversified of the oil services companies.
Sonic recently announced 21 consecutive years of positive same-store sales performance, and reaffirmed its 33 cents earnings per share earnings expectations for the fourth quarter. For fiscal 2008, Sonic expects earnings growth of 15% to 17%. The consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is that Sonic is a buy. The share price was $23.40 at the close on Friday, up from a 52-week low of $20.02 in late July, not yet quite back to its 52-week high of $25.09 in May, but still up from its stumble at the end of August after an analyst's downgrade based on labor and dairy costs. That was before the announcement and reaffirmed expectations mentioned above. Also, Sonic made the Forbes list of 100 best mid cap stocks in America.
Oklahoma celebrates its centennial in November -- Happy Birthday, Oklahoma!
Today, Oklahoma is known as one of the most business-friendly states, due in part to low tax rates. Oklahoma's economy is based largely on the energy, aviation, and food processing sectors. From 2000 to 2006, Oklahoma's gross domestic product increased 50 percent. The GDP per capita grew almost 10 percent between 2005 and 2006, one of the highest rates in the nation.
Since then, the group (which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (AMEX: XLU)) has fallen by 7.66%, while the S&P 500 index has gained 1.09%. Quarter-to-date, utilities are down 2.79% and the S&P 500 is up 5.97% (all data through last Friday).
Now, with the latest 3-month reporting period coming to an end this week, it might be worth thinking about going the other way. Not on an outright basis, however, but by switching out of another sector, energy (AMEX: XLE), that has gotten very over-extended.
This seems especially apparent when one graphs the ratio of one sector to the other. As the accompanying chart illustrates, relative to S&P utilities, the energy group has gone up in a straight line, and is near the key overhead resistance levels seen in April 2006.
Gasoline inventories dropped below their five-year average and are now 6% below last year's average, according to Joseph Dancy, an adjunct professor at Southern Methodist University, in an essay published in Barron's this weekend.
This means the outlook for investing in energy remains good, Dancy believes, as demand for gasoline will grow 2% with little supply relief in sight. Particularly the lack of new refinery capacity means positive growth prospects for a company like Matrix Service Company (NASDAQ: MTRX) that specializes in repair and maintenance services to the refining, distribution and pipelines sectors.
Dancy wrote the supply and demand balance for energy could mean a sharp escalation of energy prices. Mexico's Cantarell field's output, the second largest in the world as measured by output, declined 17% in March from year-earlier levels, while offset by new production increases at a nearby field, total crude production from Mexico is down 5%. In addition, Venezuela production should get hit at some point as Chavez has taken control of exploring for and producing energy away from the foreign experts. And Nigeria, who sends 1 million barrels per day to the US, is also in a politically tenuous situation.
Add to this, the huge swing producer, Saudi Arabia, announced that is will no longer increase production after 2009, which might indicate the nature of its oil reserves.
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) is on my watch list. It closed today at $42.47 down 48 cents. It popped up on my screen when it hit my target of $42.00 per share and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 5; that's very low for this caliber of company.
So I took a closer look at some other factors. I already liked the fact that they are deeply involved in energy -- a currently undervalued segment of the economy. Half its oil and natural gas reserves are in North America and management has been making good decisions for a decade, so the track record is there. One decision I like was increasing its reserves and selling some Gulf Coast assets.
Anadarko has a 52-week high of $56.97 and is near it's low of $39.51. At 36% off it's high it is looking very tempting. Oil and natural gas prices are down significantly and APC's price reflects that; however, I'm thinking, do they go up from here, or down -- which is more likely? I say up eventually, and sooner rather than later. What do I get if I buy and hold? Maybe 'dead money' for six to nine months plus a small dividend yield of .83% or maybe prices rise and the stock just makes a small move up.