"Valuations for even the best-placed, most well-established companies in the energy space are sitting at levels unseen since the late 1990s when oil prices collapsed to around $10 per barrel," says energy sector specialist Elliott Gue.
Here, the editor of The Energy Strategist looks at Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), noting, "The firm active in just about every imaginable market and I regard the company as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business."
"It's clear that there's been some slowing in demand, and the credit crunch has had an impact on the fundamental business. But the reaction in the stock market over the past three months goes well beyond even a worst-case scenario.
"Bottom line: Many energy-related stocks are pricing in a severe recession and recent action in the broader markets is reminiscent of sentiment characteristically seen near market lows. The short-term outlook for the energy patch is much better now than it was during the bear market in 1998 and 2002.
"I regard Schlumberger as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business and, more broadly, international oil and gas drilling activity. I always pay close attention to what Schlumberger has to say in its conference calls and, as usual, this quarter's call was instructive.
"If there's one sector that stands to benefit handsomely from a further slide in oil or, at least, a moderation in crude's rally: the airlines," explains energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
In The Energy Strategist, he says, "Airlines may make a terrible long-term investment but can be an outstanding short-term trade." Here he looks at Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and, for the even more speculatively-inclined, US Airways (NYSE: LCC).
"Some investors will rightfully cringe from any mention of this sector; after all, the airlines have consistently lost money throughout their post-deregulation history.
"Most of the majors have declared bankruptcy on multiple occasions since that time. However, we've traded the airlines on a few occasions; we took some triple-digit percentage gains in the airlines back in 2005.
"The airlines' leverage to oil prices is well known. Expectations are so low, in fact, that several major air carriers actually managed to beat consensus expectations in the second quarter.
"And although sentiment is already at rock-bottom, there's a real basis for cautious optimism. First, if I'm right about oil, fuel costs won't rise appreciably in the third quarter. This huge headwind is dissipating.
Although he has been maintaining a cautious stance on the refining group, energy sector expert Elliott Gue is now boosting the rating on Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO).
In his The Energy Strategist, the advisor explains, "Valero is now attractive for three reasons: superior geographic exposure, refinery complexity and a new focus on profitability."
"Our caution on the refining group was due to expectations that crack spreads would be weak through the spring, a period during which spreads tend to widen. Overall, this call was correct: Refiners have underperformed the energy patch since mid-March.
"And longer term, I have some concerns about new refining capacity expansions due to come online over the next few years. As this supply comes online, it could put downside pressure on margins.
"But over the next six to nine months, the refiners look like a compelling play. Gasoline inventories are now back in line with seasonal norms; it's likely gasoline prices will now rally further relative to crude oil. In fact, we're already seeing an obvious spike in crack spreads.
"One of my favorite indicators for the energy markets is the quarterly conference calls and earnings releases from Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist, he explains, "In this quarter's call, Schlumberger's management team was notably upbeat, the most positive on industry growth expectations in more than a year. This is a key shift in sentiment that has broader implications for the energy patch at large."
"Schlumberger's reports and conference calls have proved extraordinarily useful in the past for determining the most profitable trends and investment themes. The reason for that is simple: Schlumberger is the largest oilfield services company and has its hand in just about every imaginable market all over the world.
"In addition, the company has traditionally offered long, detailed conference calls; CEO Andrew Gould often relates far more than the outlook for Schlumberger and offers considerable color and detail concerning trends for the industry in general.
"This quarter's conference call was no exception. Schlumberger's outlook this quarter was far more upbeat than in its third and fourth quarter 2007 earnings calls.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Kinder has four basic business lines: oil pipelines and terminals, carbon dioxide (CO2) pipelines, natural gas pipelines and refined products pipes.
"Refined products pipelines are among the most stable assets a firm can own. Typically, they're dedicated to servicing a particular group of refineries, and volumes tend to grow at a slow but predictable rate over time. In Kinder's case, this is a simple, fee-based business. The company owns the valuable Plantation Pipeline that carries refined products from Gulf Coast refineries to the Mid-Atlantic.
"And the company's Pacific Pipeline carries refined products west to California. The West Coast is one area of the US that's chronically short of refining capacity. Pipelines carrying refined products from the Gulf are the only way California keeps moving.
"BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) should be part of any investor's portfolio," says leading energy and resources expert Elliott Gue. The editor of The Energy Strategist explains, "China is both the world's largest coal producer and its preeminent consumer. Demand for coal in Asia is growing rapidly, and China is moving from being an important net exporter to a net importer."
In light of the tight supply demand balance in Asia, he states that the obvious question is where all those coal imports will come from. One country he says that will dominate the export trade for the foreseeable future is Australia.
Gue says, "Australia has large reserves and production capabilities. And it is located relatively close to their key export markets. Meanwhile, Australia is a politically stable country with a solid legal system and a large, liquid stock market. In short: Australia is a great and politically safe place to invest."
Australian-based BHP Billiton is the world's largest producer of exported thermal and coking coal, generating around 37 million tons of met coal and 88 million tons of thermal coal annually, according to the advisor.
The company operates primarily in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Gue points out that in the shallow Gulf waters, the most common type of drilling rig is what's known as a jackup. These, he notes, consist of a platform attached to four or more legs that rest on the sea floor and are used to drill in water up to a few hundred feet deep.
Gue says, "Most oil and gas producers don't own their own rigs. Rather, these rigs are leased from contract drillers like Hercules for a fee known as a day-rate. Hercules currently owns nine jackup rigs and a fleet of boats used to maintain wells and platforms."
The company, he notes, is in the process of acquiring Todco, a firm with a fleet of 24 jackup rigs and 27 inland barge rigs used for even shallower water drilling. In the wake of this acquisition, Gue notes, Hercules will be a dominant contract driller in the shallow-water Gulf.
Each year, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Stocks Report.
Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD), a master limited partnership (MLP), is the top conservative pick for 2007 from energy expert Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist.
"MLPs trade on the major exchanges just like any stock. But there are some big tax benefits to owning MLPs, offering a combination of high current income and the potential for that income to grow rapidly over time.
"Enterprise Products is the largest MLP in the U.S. Unlike most other big MLPs, Enterprise hasn't slowed its distribution growth substantially in recent years. In fact, the MLP has maintained an impressive 9%+ annualized growth rate in distributions during the past five years. .
Each year, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Stocks Report.
Energy Metals (NYSE: EMU) is the favorite speculative pick for 2007 from Elliott Gue. The editor of The Energy Strategist explains, "The supply/demand balance for uranium is tighter than for just about any other major commodity; supply of natural uranium from mines just isn't enough to cover even current demand. And with a global building boom for nuclear power plants underway, demand for uranium is only going to rise.
"In late October, uranium mining giant Cameco announced that it was experiencing uncontrollable water inflow into one of its key new mine projects, delaying the project from in early 2008 to, perhaps, mid-2009 for this mine.
"By around 2008, some utilities will be running low on uranium inventories to fuel their existing reactors. And there aren't many other sources of uranium out there to fill the void. For an aggressive play on this trend, consider Energy Metals. The stock, previously only listed in Toronto, recently listed its shares on the NYSE.
"While Energy Metals is headquartered in Canada, most of its projects are located in the U.S. Its Hobson facility in Texas is a licensed processing plant that is currently capable of processing 500,000 pounds of uranium oxide (yellowcake) annually from ISL liquids. This plant could produce as much as 1 million pounds of yellowcake annually once EMU completes upgrades to the facility.