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Disney should never buy EA

Here's an idea for you: Disney (NYSE: DIS) should consider buying Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS). No, I didn't come up with the concept. It came from Martin Peers over at The Wall Street Journal (subscription required). Although this is an interesting idea, I can tell you that as a Disney shareholder, I absolutely disagree with it. In fact, I have to wonder if any Disney shareholder in their right mind could possibly be supportive of such an idea.

Buy EA? The author must have been kidding, right? Honestly, that would be one of the worst things that CEO Bob Iger could do. I really don't think it would happen, but then again, I never thought we'd see a hellish financial implosion based on a crisis of confidence precipitated by the popping of a housing bubble to end all housing bubbles.

Yep, strange days beget strange things, and the notion that the Mouse should invest in EA is perhaps one of the stranger beasts to walk Wall Street. Although the author does make a case that EA is cheap, I shudder to think about how Iger would possibly integrate the publisher into his conglomerate. Disney already has made significant investments in the video-game industry, and many of the games that the company releases are based on intellectual properties that have already been incubated in other parts of the business. Imagine if Disney had to deal with a larger, more complex pipeline, one that would obviously contain a lot of properties that could not be used in, say, the theme parks or by the movie studio. Personally, I think it would be a distraction to Disney.

Continue reading Disney should never buy EA

Icahn doubles up on Lions Gate Entertainment

When most investors are down on a stock they own, they get depressed and sell.

Not so for Carl Icahn. Since he first bought shares of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) back in mid-2006, the stock has fallen from around $10 per share to the current price of just over $7. Now Icahn has doubled his stake in the film house to 9.2%. Lions Gate is best-known for hit movies including "Crash" and "Saw", along with TV shows such as "Weeds" and "Mad Men." Icahn may see tremendous value in the company's library of films.

Vice Chairman Michael Burns told (subscription required) The Wall Street Journal that "Mr. Icahn and Lions Gate seem to share a similar vision of the growing value of content as platforms increase delivery around the world."

It'll be interesting to see if Icahn gets active in this company. He has said that he views the company as underleveraged, but current market conditions may make it tough for the company to pursue some of Icahn's favorite value-creation strategies: borrowing money to buy back stock and/or pursuing a sale or merger.

Serious Money: Stable stocks beating S&P 500 - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA, XEL

It was July 1, 2008 when I first posted Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The title speaks for itself. This update, after nine weeks and horrible market conditions, is through Friday October 3, 2008.

The index for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed Friday at 1,099.23 , down 14.12%.

Each of my five picks is beating the market and three of the five are actually up despite crushing news in the financial sector, unemployment and housing. Congress did pass a Wall Street backstop/bailout bill that President Bush has signed, but only after adding another 450 pages and $130 billion to the amount. Although the five stocks have averaged a 0.75% loss, as intended, they easily beat the S&P by 13.37%.

Here are the five stocks that I still think are worth considering. For my original rationale see the linked story above.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It closed Friday at $66.16 -- up 2.75%. JNJ was featured in Barron's this month as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It closed October 3 at $46.08 -- up 0.06% 0.62% Teva (of Isreal) is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger through the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals last month.

Continue reading Serious Money: Stable stocks beating S&P 500 - CB, DIS, JNJ, TEVA, XEL

Will the Jonas Brothers be the next big thing for Disney?

Anyone looking for a reason to buy Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) shares now has three: The Jonas Brothers.

Kevin, Joe and Nick Jonas are in the words of Portfolio.com "poised to become a nine figure franchise" for the media company.

The biggest band few over the age of 15 care about recently released "A Little Bit Longer", their second for Disney's Hollywood Records. It immediately went platinum and then quickly became the most-downloaded album on iTunes, according to the magazine. Then there is the sold out tour, the book commemorating the sold-out tour and the 3D movie of said tour.

If that's not milking the franchise, I don't know what is.

The Jonas boys, who took in $12 million last year, also are wholesome enough to allay the concerns of parents worried about the recent R-rated behavior of Disney teen queen Miley Cyrus. She apparently is dating one of the Jonas boys, each of whom wears purity rings symbolizing their commitment to sexual abstinence. I know the Portfolio article specifies the identity of the brother but I have decided I have more important things to do than remember it.

Anyone like me who scoffs at the Jonas' bland of sweet inoffensive pop should remember that they are not the target audience. My niece Danielle, 12, is that audience. She thinks the Jonas' are the best thing since sliced bread -- make that bread itself. She has pictures of the Jonas' in her room including one she drew herself. Danielle is even trying to learn the guitar.

The Jonas Brothers. who play their own instruments, show no signs of slowing. For some handy Jonas figures check this out. Disney will continue to profit from their success as it tries to duplicate it many times over.

Company nicknames: Disney, the Mouse House, still relevant after all these years

This post is one in a series on prominent company nicknames. See all 25, and share your thoughts and memories about the Mouse House below in the comments.

Anyone who has ever wondered about the term "Mouse House" need only consult the slanguage dictionary of the show business bible Variety, which defines it this way: "the Walt Disney Co. or any division thereof, a reference to the company's most famous animated character, Mickey Mouse." Variety also refers to Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) simply as the "Mouse."

I've recently rediscovered Mickey because of my nearly two-year-old son Jacob, and I'll say that the old rodent looks pretty good. I mean he's not in his Fantasia form, but he can still deliver the goods for the toddler crowd. Jacob probably is confused by many of the same things about Mickey and his gang as I was, such as why Donald Duck wears no pants and what sort of animal is Goofy. Those mysteries will endure until we fulfill our promise to take our son to visit Mickey's house in Florida.

Disney deserves credit for keeping Mickey Mouse relevant for today's kids because it realizes that the character remains vital to the brand of the world's second-largest media company. The company remains the best-run company in the sector and the only stock worth owning.

Will Time Warner get $15 billion for a split-up AOL?

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that BloggingStocks' parent -- Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) -- is almost done with the work of separating AOL's 8.7 million subscriber dial-up business from its advertising one. And Earthlink (NASDAQ: ELNK), with 3.3 million subscribers, appears to be the logical partner -- particularly if it's willing to pay more than the $2 billion to $3 billion the Journal estimates its worth.

When AOL announced two years ago that it was going to get out of the Internet access business and focus on advertising, I wondered how it would come up with the roughly $2 billion it would lose from the plan to give away all of AOL's content and services to subscribers who don't use AOL for dial-up access. The plan was to replace that cash flow with advertising sales. But the most recently available comparison shows that AOL's revenue has declined 43% from $1.981 billion in Q1 2006 to $1.128 billion in Q1 2008. A 64% drop in subscription revenues to $559 million was not offset by the 41% increase in advertising revenues to $552 million.

Still, I think the idea of combining AOL's shrinking dial-up business unit with Earthlink could benefit Time Warner and yield some cost savings that would boost Earthlink's cash flow.

Continue reading Will Time Warner get $15 billion for a split-up AOL?

Disney defies skeptics

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) continues to defy skeptics, posting second-quarter profit that beat Wall Street expectations thanks to fee increases at ESPN and a robust business at the theme parks.

Net income at the second-largest media company rose 9% to $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share, from $1.18 billion, or 57 cents, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, profit was 62 cents, two cents better than Wall Street forecasts, according to Bloomberg News. Sales rose 2.1% to $9.24 billion. The stock, though, is down in after-hours trading for reasons that are not clear.

Among the highlights:

  • Media Networks revenue for the quarter increased 8% to $4.1 billion and segment operating income increased 9% to $1.5 billion helped by growth at ESPN and the Disney Chanel.
  • Parks and Resorts revenue increased 5% to $3.0 billion and segment operating income increased 3% to $641 million amid higher ticket prices and guest spending at Walt Disney World.
  • Studio entertainment and consumer products showed declines amid lower box office receipts and the disappointing performance of "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian."

Disney has so many ways of making money that if one business falters, the others take up the slack. That's why it remains the best managed of any media company and the one stock in the sector that remains a buy.

Sirius acquisiton of XM to finally get FCC approval

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.'s (NASDAQ: SIRI) $3.5 billion acquisition of rival XM Satellite Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) might at long last be approved by the Federal Communications Commission, according to the Wall Street Journal.

"Republican commissioner Deborah Taylor Tate is the only FCC member left to vote on the deal and she is expected to do so shortly, two FCC officials close to the negotiations said," the paper said. "She is expected to sign off on the deal in exchange for a consent decree that resolves several enforcement issues involving the satellite radio companies and a combined fine of about $20 million, an FCC source close to the deal."

Even with the regulatory hurdles just about cleared, the future of satellite radio is far from clear. As my colleague Douglas McIntyre noted earlier today, losses at both companies are narrowing but their subscription growth rates are slowing. Both firms also are more than $1 billion in debt.

Though I am a big fan of the medium, I wonder sometimes whether its moment in the sun has past. Remember BetaMax and 8-track players were considered cutting edge at one time.

My plan to save 'American Idol'

About every 10 seconds or so this season, "American Idol" host Ryan Seacrest or one of the judges brags about how this group of contestants is the most talented in the show's history. They speak about the huge number of votes being cast and the huge number of song downloads sold on iTunes. Well, as the Associated Press points out, the American people would beg to differ.

"The 21.8 million people who watched last Tuesday's competition was the show's smallest Tuesday audience in more than five years," the AP said. "The show did better the next night, with 22.9 million, but that was the smallest Wednesday audience in three years, according to Nielsen Media Research."

But Idol fans and shareholders of News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) should not get too down since the show can be saved if producers follow my advice:

Continue reading My plan to save 'American Idol'

As gasoline price rises, so does clamor for gasoline tax credit

For Mac Murphy of New Rochelle, NY, a husband and father of two teen-age daughters in college, the rise in the price of gasoline is not an incidental expense.

"It's like an extra car payment, for crying out loud," Murphy said as he pumped $3.39 per gallon unleaded regular gasoline into his wife's car Tuesday.

Gas pump shock

Murphy pays for his daughters' gas bills while the two are studying at college. Each has a car. Up until about a year ago, the bills were about $20-$25 per month each. These days, they're sending back monthly bills that are routinely over $50 each, and those gasoline expenses combined with his and his wife Laura's gas purchases, means ..."about $300 dollars a month in gasoline expenses."

The family has done its best to limit gasoline expenses by carpooling and eliminating unnecessary trips, and next year the family will trade in one car for a substantially more-fuel-efficient vehicle. Still, given that he and his wife each commute by car to different locations, there's only so much they can do to reduce their gasoline costs. Further, Murphy says the expense "is only likely to increase this summer, when gas hits $4 per gallon."

When told by an inquirer that gasoline may actually approach $5 per gallon this summer in high-cost cites such as his metro New York region, Murphy was apoplectic.


Continue reading As gasoline price rises, so does clamor for gasoline tax credit

Disney's world is starting to look wonderful again

In less-than-certain economic times, it's prudent to add one or two large-cap demonstrated business model performers to your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind, Disney is worth a review.

Disney (NYSE: DIS) is the world's second largest media conglomerate.

In general, analysts see adequate revenue gains on media network performance (including solid TV advertising sales), and relatively heavy traffic at worldwide theme parks.

Meanwhile, merchandise licensing revenue should be adequate, as should film revenue, with difficult year-to-year film revenue comparisons expected to lighten somewhat in F2009. Further, Disney's balance sheet is among the strongest in the sector. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for DIS are $2.23/$2.39.

Continue reading Disney's world is starting to look wonderful again

Was the writer's strike worth it?

The New York Times reports that the writer's who have been on strike since November look like they're going back to work. But the strike probably cost the writers more in lost wages than they'll make from the new contract they signed. So, I don't understand the economic point of the strike.

How much did the strike cost? Los Angeles's chief economist estimated that the strike cost the area $3.2 billion; writers and production workers lost $772 million in wages; and businesses that serve the strike lost $981 million in revenue. And this doesn't count the cost to the economy from New York writers who were also on strike.

Continue reading Was the writer's strike worth it?

Disney beats Wall Street estimates easily

The house that Mouse built roared like the MGM lion.

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) today reported better-than-expected fiscal first quarter results, helped by gains from its cable TV networks and theme parks. Shares, down almost 15% over the past year, rose in after-hours trading.

Net income was $1.25 billion, or 63 cents a share, compared with $1.7 billion, or 79 cents, a year earlier, beating the 52-cent consensus forecast of Wall Street analysts. Sales rose 9.1% to $10.45 billion, surpassing Wall Street forecasts of $10.1 billion.

Particularly noteworthy was the performance of the company's Parks and Resorts business. Revenue surged 11% to $2.8 billion while operating income jumped 25% to $505 million. Walt Disney World in Florida reported increased guest spending, attendance and hotel occupancy. Overseas visitors lured by the cheap dollar probably accounted for at least some of this performance.

Rising affiliate fees and advertising sales pushed up sales at Disney's Media Networks business by 10% to $4.17 billion and operating income by 28% to $908 million. Consumer products, the smallest business, saw revenue rise 29% to $870 million and operating income by 38% to $322 million. The only laggard was Studio Entertainment which had flat revenue and saw operating income drop by 15% to $514 million because of a decline in DVD sales. These sorts of declines in the entertainment business are not unusual because of the literal hit or miss nature of the business.

Though Disney is far from recession-proof, it probably will weather any economic downturn better than its peers.

Shorts bet against Sirius

The short interest in Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) spiked up between November 15 and November 30 by 14.4 million to 113.4 million.

Sirius shares have been down over the last few days, and perhaps the market thinks they will go lower.

Many analysts expected that the Sirius merger with XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) would be approved by now. No such luck. The longer the approval drags on, the better the chance that it will get derailed by ranting congressmen of the Justice Department.

Then, there is the issue of the Sirius balance sheet. The company has long-term debt of about $1.3 billion and no way to repay it. With bad credit markets, it may not even be able to be refinanced. The company had an operating loss of $106 million last quarter on $242 million in revenue. And subscriber counts are not doubling year-over-year like they used to.

Sirius is in trouble. The market knows it. And it needs that merger and the savings it should bring to stay afloat.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Everything's coming up roses for Broadway

"You'll be swell, you'll be great.
Gonna have the whole world on a plate.
Startin' here, startin now',
Honey, everything's coming up roses."

-Ethel Merman, "Everything's Coming Up Roses"

The late Ethel Merman, the First Lady of Broadway, would be proud.

Broadway theater owner/producers and the stagehands' union have reached a tentative agreement, ending a costly, 19-day strike which had kept more than two dozen shows dark in the most-represented, live, dramatic performance district in the world. Details of the tentative contract were not disclosed, The Associated Press reported.

Continue reading Everything's coming up roses for Broadway

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Last updated: December 04, 2008: 11:26 PM

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