Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is recently down $2.32 to $35 in pre-open trading. RIMM lowered Q3 earnings guidance. Deutsche Bank has a Sell rating on RIMM. RIMM December option implied volatility of 140 is above its 26-week average of 72 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Motorola (NYSE: MOT) closed at $4.27. MOT overall option implied volatility of 95 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) closed at $13.64. NOK will host Capital Markets day in New York on December 4. Smith Barney says: "Margin targets to be lowered but how bad will 09 get?" NOK December option implied volatility of 84 is above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) is recently up 10 cents to $7 in pre-open trading. Cowen says: "Reducing global handset industry, Sony Ericsson, on further weakness." ERIC overall option implied volatility of 78 is above is 26-week average of 62 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is recently down $2.27 to $89.70 in pre-open trading. Kaufman Bros says "Maintain Buy. We continue to believe AAPL is one of the better names to own in this tough economy given its strong fundamentals." AAPL overall option implied volatility of 74 is above its 26-week average of 56 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Jefferies upgraded Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) to Buy from Hold on valuation with the stock down 65% in two months as they believe the company has a "best-in-class fundamental story." The firm lowered its target to $25 from $30.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) to Overweight from Equal Weight on valuation and believes near-term cost reductions could provide a positive catalyst.
Citigroup upgraded New York Times (NYSE: NYT) to Hold from Sell and lowered its target to $5.50 from $7 on valuation and believes the dividend cut will boost the company's liquidity.
Pantry (NASDAQL PTRY) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings.
LECG Corp (NASDAQ: XPRT) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
Thomson Reuters (NYSE: TRI) was upgraded at RBC Capital to Outperform from Sector Perform.
Analyst downgrades:
Jefferies downgraded Suntech (NYSE: STP) to Hold from Buy and lowered its target to $6 from $25 as they believe concerns about a convert refinancing in February 2010 will continue to weigh on the stock.
Credit Suisse cut Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Underperform from Outperform due to expectations for a decline in wireless infrastructure spending.
ING downgraded shares of Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Hold from Buy as they believe it will be challenging for the company to execute asset sales planned at reducing debt in the current environment.
Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Colonial Bancgroup (NYSE: CNB) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent weakness and believes the company will be eligible to receive TARP funds. Morgan Stanley believes the company's valuation adequately reflects risk to the loan portfolio; the firm raised shares to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Merrill upgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) and ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Buy from Underperform and believes their valuation reflects the worst-case for bad news.
Oppenheimer upgraded Trimble Navigation to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the company's long-term growth story is intact.
Celestica (NYSE: CLS) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
UBS cut Barclays (NYSE: BCS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe capital raises could negatively impact earnings and that the dividend is likely to be cut.
JP Morgan downgraded Discovery Holdings (NASDAQ: DISCA) to Underweight from Neutral based on valuation and the deteriorating economic outlook.
Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) to Underperform from Market Perform and lowered its target to $7 from $23 as they see further risk to the downside following the company's weaker-than-expected results.
LKQ Corp (NASDAQ: LKQX) was cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital.
Affymetrix (NASDAQ: AFFX) was lowered to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
RightNow Tech (NASDAQ: RNOW) was downgraded at Baird to Neutral from Outperform.
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ADR) (NASDAQ: ERIC), a telecom-related business whose colleagues include Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), reported earnings for the third quarter. And, unless I miss my guess, the market liked what it saw. As I write this, shares are up over 15%, and the trading volume is high. So, what's going on here?
Well, according to this source, revenue and profit for the quarter went beyond the expectations of analysts. The top line soared 13%. Nothing wrong with that. The bottom line, however, went down 28%, even though it exceeded what was expected. And then there was the gross margin improvement. A lot of times that can work wonders for a company's shares. Gross margin went from 35.6% to 37%. Wall Street was impressed.
Now, this is all well and good, but am I a buyer of Ericsson after the report? No. There are a few things to consider here. First, the global economy is a mess. Second, statements made by management in terms of the near future indicate a cautious stance. Third, there's no way I'm buying a stock that just rallied by a double-digit percentage in this market. Especially not a tech stock. There are harder ways to lose money. The 52-week low on the ADR's is about $6 per share, and I can easily see this one revisiting that level as we continue to get news on the economy throughout the quarter. Obviously, many investors out there disagree with me. But this is not the time to play momentum trader, in my opinion. I'm happy to sit on the sidelines in this case, even if I turn out to be wrong.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.
Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.
Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:
Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): $1.25 per share (+44.0%) on revenues of $134.7 million (+103.2%)
Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM): $0.44 per share (+38.6%) on revenues of $1.3 billion (+33.8%)
QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): $0.31 per share (+29.0%) on revenues of $170.0 million (+21.2%)
FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR): $0.32 per share (+28.1%) on revenues of $275.2 million (+44.0%)
Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR): $0.30 per share (+26.7%) on revenues of $927.4 million (+26.2%)
Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT): $0.75 per share (+17.3%) on revenues of $391.6 million (+11.1%)
Sweden's Ericsson LM TEL Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) said this morning that it saw a 70% nosedive in profits for its second quarter due to R&D costs as well as activity related to recent acquisitions. Ericsson also commented that its primary business -- mobile equipment and infrastructure -- will likely experience a "flattish" market in 2008.
That didn't sit well with investors, who sank the stock over 5% in Stockholm where the company's shares are traded. The company's ADS price as of this afternoon was hovering right over $11.06 per share, even though the company did see a smallish sales gain of 2% year-over-year. The problem is that its profit was down to $320 million for the quarter compared to over $1 billion during the year-ago quarter.
One of the more interesting twists came from Ericsson's joint partnership in Sony Ericsson, the mobile phone handset company that had a great comeback in the 2005 to 2007 time frame but has seen sales drop sharply in 2008. In fact, Sony Ericsson saw a 97% drop in its recent Q2 earnings due to the company's inability to ship lower-end handsets to the hot mobile phone markets. As a result, Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), was in all the right places to take the market share Sony Ericsson missed by being absent in that space.
"Wall Street has recently been very negative about Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)," notes wireless sector expert Nikhil Hutheesing. In his Forbes Wireless Stock Watch, the advisor explains, "But things may not be as dire as they sounded last month and I think that with expectations down, the company will end up exceeding expectations in the second half of this year."
"One reason Wall Street has been negiative is that TXN's biggest wireless customer, Nokia, announced a fundamental shift, stating it would no longer depend mostly on Texas Instruments for its chips. Ericsson also said it had shifted to a multi-supplier strategy.
"Besides that, in April, at TXN's earnings conference, CEO Rich Templeton talked of a cloudy economy and said that his company had become become more conservative with its outlook for the second quarter.
"Meanwhile, I've spoken with a number of experts in the wireless area who tell me that orders for TI's chips are significantly higher for the second half of this year than they have been in previous years. These orders are even coming from Nokia. (So far, Nokia's muti-supplier strategy has not had an impact on Texas Instruments.)
MOST NOTEWORTHY: PFF Bancorp, Ericsson and TAL International Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
B. Riley upgraded shares of PFF Bancorp (NYSE: PFB) to Neutral from Sell on valuation with the stock trading at 11% of the last reported tangible book value of $14.37 at December 31, 2007.
RBC Capital believes Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) will benefit from network builds in North America and Asia. Shares were raised to Outperform from Sector Perform.
Baird upgraded TAL International Group (NYSE: TAL) to Outperform from Neutral based on solid container leasing demand, rising container costs, and more constrained capital conditions.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Deutsche Bank upgraded Telecom Italia (NYSE: TI) to Buy from Hold.
JP Morgan upgraded Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) to Neutral from Underweight.
Goldman raised Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) to Neutral from Sell.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Credit Suisse, Masimo and Marvell Tech were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bear upgraded Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) to Peer Perform from Underperform as they believe the company's balance sheet will stabilize and the company's Private Banking business is holding up well in difficult conditions. Goldman, which raised shares to Neutral from Sell, believes the worst is over regarding the market downturn.
Citigroup upgraded Masimo Corporation (NASDAQ: MASI) to Buy from Hold citing expectations of a strong Q1 report, expected FDA approval for hemoglobin monitoring in 2H08, and valuation.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd (NASDAQ: MRVL) was raised at Friedman Billings to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and improved business conditions.
After hitting a one-year high of $43.41 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.04 in March. ERIC opened this morning at $20.82. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.39 and a high of $20.83. As of 1:00, ERIC is trading at $20.59, up $0.20 (1.0%). The chart for ERIC looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just three and a half months as long as ERIC is above $15 at July expiration. Ericsson would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: RAM Holdings, State Street and Ericsson were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Banc of America downgraded shares of RAM Holdings (NASDAQ: RAMR) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the company could have increasing loss provisions related to RMBS and CDO exposure over the next several quarters.
State Street (NYSE: STT) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette on valuation and difficult comparisons in the second half of 2008.
HSBC downgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Neutral from Overweight and prefers Nokia (NYSE: NOK) at current levels.
Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is recently down $2.32 to $35 in pre-open trading. RIMM lowered Q3 earnings guidance. Deutsche Bank has a Sell rating on RIMM. RIMM December option implied volatility of 140 is above its 26-week average of 72 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement..gif){kind=logo}
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