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It's rarely easy to offer a contrarian point of view, particularly when a vital commodity is in such high demand as oil is today, but author John Cassidy attempts to do so in the January 2008 issue of Portfolio magazine, "The Coming Oil Crash."

In it Cassidy walks us through classic cyclical theory, i.e. what happens to a commodity when markets work as they should. Namely, that the recent tripling of oil prices is unleashing forces - - as it did the mid/late 1990s - - that will bring oil's price tumbling down in the next few years to $50 per barrel, perhaps even as low as $30 per barrel. (Oil closed Friday up 32 cents to $96.74 per barrel.)

What are the factors that will prompt the dramatic slide? First, new technology which allows for more oil extraction per zone. Second, a global slowdown that could certainly cause oil prices to drop, and put the brakes on demand. Third, systematic shifts away from oil, due to price: oil's lofty price is encouraging countries to shift some energy requirements permanently to alternative energy sources and to use less oil. Fourth, new oil discoveries, combined with technology, will add large amounts of new oil supplies from such previously unfeasible zones in the Arctic Ocean, Brazil, and the Gulf of Mexico. Fifth, ethanol production in the U.S., although energy intensive, could curb demand for oil. Finally, quick ramp-up alternatives natural gas, nuclear power, and synthetic oil will displace an increasing amount of crude oil, putting further downward pressure on prices.

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With oil, it's cyclical theory vs. emerging market demand originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Dec 2007 18:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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