This holiday season retailers are gearing up for one of the worst years yet. They've read the news and know that unemployment is up, people are putting off large purchases, and we're in the midst of a financial crisis. These unfortunate facts are not only reflected in most retail store's bottom lines, but also in stock prices. The Retail HOLDRs (AMEX: RTH) exchange traded fund (ETF) is showing a bit of an unexpected trend as it recently outperformed the market from its highs in September 2008.

It must be noted that the success of RTH is its share of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), which is a full 26% of the holdings. RTH has done very well in the current economic environment as people are looking for the best deals across the boards. Year to date, RTH is down about 25%, compared to the S&P which is down about 40%. In fact, not only is Wal-Mart not following economic predictions for the retail market, but other retail stores may also see less decline or even growth in the coming weeks. This is not the first time predictions have been dire, and yet the retail industry ended up smelling like a rose.

If you feel the outlook is more doomsday than it needs be, or if you see that the situation is actually ripe for a retail rally, consider buying RTH, which not only holds significant stock in Wal-Mart but also includes well known and big retailers such as Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), Lowes Companies (NYSE: LOW), Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) among many other household names.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with John Rutledge, chairman of Greenwich, Conneticuit-based Rutledge Capital, who casts a wide net, shedding light on the global recession as well as upcoming opportunities around the world.

Q. John, are we at the bottom yet (in equity markets) and what do you see for world markets in the next 12 months?

A. The US economy has substantially worsened in recent months; and the US and global economies are now in the early stages of a significant recession.

In early 2007, the problem was confined to the leveraged loan market as banks revealed their $300 billion in toxic loan commitments to US private equity deals. This was an isolated capital market problem, which had not materially impacted GDP. But in September 2008, the safety of money market funds came into question, seriously frightening individuals into taking cash from their bank accounts, putting all spending on hold and hoarding cash. Since then, GDP has been in serious decline.

Ironically, beginning in March 2008, the Federal Reserve's series of liquidity measures, designed to provide cash to troubled Wall Street institutions, made this situation worse. They sold Treasury bills simultaneously, withdrawing reserves from the banking system, resulting in less than a 1% annual rate of growth in bank reserves and the monetary base in the 12 months leading up to September 2008. Since the September crisis, both reserves and the monetary base have more than doubled, which will eventually solve the problem. But the Fed was very late to the party.

Whether it's a recession or an economic boom, one thing doesn't change, the need for energy. And until technology leaps ahead, coal is the largest producer of fuel for the generation of electricity in the world. It's also the most abundant fossil fuel in the United States. Coal is obviously not recession immune as people tighten the reigns on their lives and cut back on electricity consumption, but the shear necessity of electricity makes the coal industry fairly resistant. An investment in an exchange traded fund (ETF) that is centered on the coal industry is a great way to hedge your bets by investing in a pool of successful companies in the coal field.

Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) seeks to replicate the price and yield performance of the Stowe Coal index, which provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide that derive greater than 50% of their revenues from the coal industry. With KOL you'll own shares of some of the most noted coal companies in the world, including Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI), which specializes in steam and metallurgical coal; CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX), a large provider of fuel for electricity in the United States; Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR), another leader in steam and metallurgical coal; and Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU), an exploration miner and coal producer worldwide, as well as several other highly rated coal companies across the globe.

Market Vector charges only a 0.65% fee, a fraction what a professional money manager would charge you to analyze research and pick coal mining stocks with this level of global reach. Recently KOL has gone through a typical correction for this commodity sector, but then suffered a greater hit as Asia saw a 20% decline in spot prices for thermal coal. The result? A better deal for those currently willing to dive into coal as an investment. KOL is up 14%, so maybe there's some light at the end of the mine.

It seems that everywhere you turn you hear something about the price of gold, from analysts to commercials encouraging you to sell your old jewelry for big bucks. If you're tempted, how about a bit safer investment in the commodity? Let your money work for you -- invest in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that hold shares in several different gold producers, and you can ride the wave of the industry.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) is a perfect opportunity to ride this wave with as the fund's goal is to mimic the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index, before fees and expenses. This is a nondiversified fund that is comprised of several well known companies whose main operations involve gold and silver mining.

There are two reasons to buy GDX instead of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) or the iShares Comex Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU) both of which are pure gold ETFs (you own a share of gold sitting in a safe). First, the ratio between gold and the value of the gold held by miners has been relatively stable for 30 years. But today, the gold miners are selling at 33% of that historical ratio, so bulls say it's better to buy the miners, not the metal. Second, the biggest expense of a mining company is energy. Oil today hit $54 per barrel, down 63% from a peak of $147. This adds to the profits of the Gold Miners.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says futures and ETFs are calling the shots, so nothing can be trusted.

OK, so let's see. Europe was up about half of what we were, which isn't bad given that we were up a little more than the day before, which puts us so we should probably be down about 1% ... but there are animal spirits that looked great yesterday, so we won't be down that much, so bid a half percent down from the close and then walk it up as we get closer (unless there is news).

There, that's the nonsense game I used to play in my head about what the buyers and sellers of futures were going to do.

It's pretty right.

It's pretty stupid.

It's pretty right and stupid because it is what we trade off of, but what we should be trading off of is whether we are going to save the automakers or whether there will be another run against Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) or whether Citigroup's (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) insider buying is a joke or not. We should be betting on preannouncements and weakness and no ECB cuts, not on some ratio of Europe to us.

One of Obama's top priorities is making our nation energy independent with alternative energy. A barrel of oil trades in the $60s and has been coming down for awhile. But over time, energy will probably rise. If our country can build energy independence, it creates jobs, helps our national security and stops the dramatic wealth transfer to potential enemies of our country.

If Obama does what he promises, there will be more investments in the alternative energy field. Instead of trying to pick the best stocks and learn all about these companies, you can own one stock, an ETF (exchange traded fund) that is a basket of the top companies in this sector.

The Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE: GEX) is a low cost way to play alternative energy. GEX is built around an index developed by Ardour Global which includes companies that generate power through eco friendly and non-traditional sources. It started the year at $60.45 and has corrected down to $23.27 today.

Here's is my quick form strategy for investing during an Obama presidency:

Health care stocks should perform well under an Obama administration. It has been made clear that within the next four years our healthcare system shall be taking on a radical new form. There is certain to be a massive infusion of new money into the sector. I would hasten to clarify that pharmaceutical stocks might not be the angle that you want to play here. I would lean more towards hospitals and long-term care providers. Check out this analysis from Kiplinger, to get yourself started.

Next, I'd be looking at infrastructure plays. I'd focus on materials, procurement, and construction, as they relate to roads, tunnels and bridges. This play will be more dangerous in the near term, as these types of expenditures will be more dependent on governmental budgetary processes, rather than executive edict. Jim Cramer recently offered some input about infrastructure. You might want to check out his suggestions. Then, you can find information about building an infrastructure position at TheStreet.com. Additionally, here's a great list of infrastructure companies which has been provided by Seeking Alpha.

To me, perhaps the most important investment angle to play through the next administration will be alternative energy stocks. I expect that there will be a great deal of money moving in there. Ethanol is said to be a sure thing. I myself am not so positive about that. Oh, we can be sure that there will be plenty of ethanol to go around. However, I don't see much financial return in it at the investor's level. I lean towards solar plays, and to a lesser degree, I like wind power. You can get a good feel for alternative energy direction by reviewing The Pickens Plan. There is no shortage of companies to invest in if you're looking for alternative energy plays. You can easily start your stock picking hunt by checking out the companies which are included in the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index.

As always, stock portfolio success begins with good research. Hopefully, I've given you some quality leads to get started with. When all is said and done, history clearly shows that the markets flourish under administrations controlled by the democrats. Let's hope to God that this time around won't be the exception.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Adam Warner:

Smarter minds than yours truly have noted that the oil ETF United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) is not the best bullish play on crude here. My understanding of the product is that USO owns futures, and must roll each cycle. And right now oil is in deep contango, which always sounds pornographic but actually just refers to the fact that there's a particularly steep and upward sloped curve in the futures as you go out in time.

I'll take their word for the contango part, but I'm not entirely sure why that necessarily will knock down USO. They'll roll when they roll, and even if the spread is wide, won't it then just depend on what happens in the next month AFTER the roll? I'm thinking out loud here, so if anyone has something enlightening to add on this topic, I am all ears.

I sold and am selling more Nov. puts anyway, so it should not matter a great deal from my standpoint. And I'm not sure I really have a great alternative if I want to do something bullish in oil options.

I don't trade futures or futures options, and as far as pure oil there's Super Double Ultra Octane Special (AMEX: DBO), which does not have liquid options.

There's also Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DIG) and UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DUG), but those track energy stocks.

If you are upset about what's happened to your portfolio, that's in the past and we must now look forward. Here are a few lessons to help you consider what to do next.

1. Get Your "Sleep-At-Night" Allocations Right. The most important investment decision we make is what percentage of our nest egg to put into cash and bonds.

Everyone today wishes they'd put 100% of their money in cash or bonds. But bond investors shouldn't sleep as well as they think -- the protection comes at a very high price. Bonds provide the lowest rate of return and over the years. Inflation eats away a lot of the value of the monthly income. From 1925 through 2003, U.S. bonds only appreciated 5.4% per year, or 61 times, while stocks appreciated nearly 10.4% per year, or 8,000 times.

Stocks are volatile, but over long periods you get paid for the sleepless nights. You just need the time to wait out these markets. Money you need for the next five years should be in bonds or cash. The panicked sellers didn't get these allocations right. If you're 50 years old and lamenting over the equity values in your 401K, remember, you're not allowed to touch it for 10 years anyway. That's a long time!

The Nasdaq Stock Market announced Thursday that trading volume on ETFs reached a new record in September with an average daily trading volume of 785 million shares. That was part of a new record trading volume of 3.3 billion shares.

IndexUniverse says that ETFs now make up more than one-third of the U.S. market trading volume. They cite data from the National Stock Exchange , which says ETFs represented "a record 35% of all U.S. equity trading volume." That's up from 31% in August. Think about that: more than one-third of stock trades in America are for exchange traded funds.

Trim Tabs just came out with a report showing investors have been pulling money out of stock funds -- but throwing them into ETFs. Trim Tabs estimates investors took well over $40 billion out of all mutual funds in September, but meanwhile put about the same amount into ETFs. For the last 12 months, we've pulled $117 billion out of mutual funds and put $127 billion into ETFs.

For individual investors, the move makes sense. When the market is moving around like it has been, it's scary to be in a vehicle where you can only trade at the end of the day? But I can't imagine that all of that ETF volume isn't helping whip around the prices of the underlying shares.

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Our pick to profit from a McCain-Palin victory in November is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an exchange-traded fund that is designed to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion," explains Nate Pile, editor of Nate's Notes.

"We would buy gold in order to hedge ourselves against what we expect would be a heightened sense of uncertainty that foreign investors would express (at least initially) if the hard-to-predict 'mavericks' take the helm.

"I also continue to believe that we are still in the early stages of what will prove to be a multi-year boom for commodities, and much of the selling we have seen in gold appears to be for primarily emotional reasons.

"The recent strength of the dollar may partially explain the drop in gold, but for the most part, I think we have simply been witnessing some good old-fashioned panic selling.

"Unlike some other ETFs that invest in precious metals via the buying and selling of futures contracts on the underlying commodities, SPDR Gold Trust (formerly known as the streetTracks Gold Trust) actually buys and sells gold bullion, and each share of the Trust represents approximately 1/10th of an ounce of gold.

"However, while there are certain benefits to actually owning gold itself (as opposed to a derivative contract associated with the commodity), investors need to be aware that gold is considered a 'collectible' by the IRS, and thus investing in this ETF can result in a higher tax rate being applied to any gains that are achieved.

Carlton Delfeld reveals his latest global ETF picks and warns of leveraged funds.

Q. Carlton, in your last newsletter, you commented on the low valuations of several global markets, including Ireland, Singapore, UK, and Sweden, among others. Have you since added any ETFs from these regions to your portfolios?

A. Yes, I have added iShares MSCI South Africa Index (NYSEArca: EZA), iShares MSCI Singapore Index (NYSEArca: EWS), and the iShares MSCI United Kingdom (NYSEArca: EWU). South Africa is in part a currency and commodity play. The United Kingdom is very much predicated on global financial recovery, and Singapore will likely be a core holding.

Q. Each of these regions seems to have its own stress points right now. Do you think that South Africa is particularly vulnerable to a global slowdown? Hasn't Singapore been hit hard by the bear market in China? And isn't the UK just moving into a housing decline that may rival that of the US?

A. South Africa, China and the UK are all trading at attractive valuations. They all have challenges. The South Africa Rand has been a strong currency and will come back with higher gold prices, the UK is already moving through the housing issue and its financial-oriented market has already been hammered. Lastly, Singapore is a very high-quality China play.

"The acronym 'BRIC-standing for Brazil, Russia, India, and China-is in vogue as shorthand for the emergence of the developing world.

"But we're herewith proposing an emended version: 'BRAC'-standing for Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada.

"That's because these four countries are the ones most brimming over with essential natural resource, with each one a net exporter of fuels and other natural products. In a world where resource shortages will only get worse, these countries will stand out from the pack.

"Don't get us wrong. China and India remain the largest and fastest growing emerging economies and still face exceptional futures.

"But their major resources are cheap labor, which will become less cheap as their economies keep growing. Indeed, labor costs in these countries already have begun to rise relative to the rest of the world.

"Meanwhile, continued gains in commodities mean that Australia and Canada are gaining relative to the rest of the world. It's hard to overstate just how important relative resource independence is in a world where resources are becoming ever more scarce and expensive.

"Renewable fuels and clean energy, a sector beaten down hard since last fall, are now primed for a major comeback," says Eric Roseman, editor of The Commodity Trend Alert. Here's his ETF play on the sector.

"With every passing day the price of crude oil rises, the secular trend to alternative energy becomes even more powerful. Consumers, companies and governments are now sick and tired of soaring energy prices.

"The long-term solution is to obviously reduce our dependence on oil and increase our consumption of renewable fuels like wind, solar, and nuclear energy.

"The bull market in alternative energy began in 2005 when a host of companies in this thriving sector went public, supported by government subsidies, especially in Germany and Spain. Interestingly, Germany and Spain have just reduced solar energy subsidies this spring.

"In my view, those subsidy cuts don't matter at this stage. When companies in the solar sector are making money, why should governments continue subsidizing them?