Diversified industrial manufacturer Eaton Corporation (NYSE: ETN) posted some great numbers for 2Q 2008. Investors responded by pushing the stock down 8% as a result. Go figure. With the exception of its automotive segment, which saw a modest 2% decline in sales, all other divisions posted double digit sales increases with demand remaining strong going forward. 2Q sales increased 32%, net income increased 35%, while net income on a per share basis increased 24% The company posted these results despite the fact that oil prices increased 40% during the quarter.
The FAA recently awarded a $40 million contract for power quality equipment. The company's Hydraulic Launch Assist technology performed very well in tests on trash trucks. It reduced fuel costs by 25% and significantly reduced brake service costs. With diesel prices showing no signs of decline, demand for this technology will be very strong when it becomes commercially available in late 2008. CEO Alexander Cutter forecasts FY sales growth to be 3% in the U.S. and 5% internationally. FY operating EPS are forecast to grow 12-16%, resulting in EPS of $7.70-$8.00. At this rate of return, the stock is currently bargain-priced around $73.00
I know it doesn't matter at all. Right now we are so stuck on the banking problems and on the companies bleeding from higher energy prices that nobody cares about all of this cash, which will be used to shrink equity. They won't care because the banks, brokers and homebuilders, and the hobbled companies that use oil, have to issue so much equity that you can't see the effect of the equity shrinkage. But it will eventually matter. It has to matter that Deere has taken out 10% of its stock in the last four years. It does matter that Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) (Cramer's Take) has eliminated almost 20% of its equity. Emerson's taken out 5%, same with Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take). There's just a huge amount of equity being shrunk.
As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) kicking things off last week, here's a look at what Wall Street is expecting from many of the companies scheduled to report this coming week.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE): $1.80 EPS (36.6%) on sales of $6.4 billion (+53.0%)
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG): $4.74 EPS (24.9%) on sales of $3.9 billion (+41.6%)
Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK): 56 cents EPS (23.2%) on sales of $19.9 billion (+17.8%)
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX): 90 cents EPS (21.1%) on sales of $2.9 billion (+12.8%)
Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR): 27 cents EPS (18.5%) on sales of $346.7 million (+8.4%)
IBM (NYSE: IBM): $1.82 EPS (+17.6%) on sales of $25.9 billion (+9.0%)
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY): 41 cents EPS (17.1%) on sales of $2.2 billion (+18.0%)
After hitting a one-year high of $104.12 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $66.27 in January. This morning, ETN opened at $87.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $84.78 and a high of $87.94. As of 11:40, ETN is trading at $84.88, down $3.67 (-4.2%). The chart for ETN looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $100 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in seven weeks as long as ETN is below $100 at August expiration. Eaton would have to rise by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Webster Financial, Eaton and Macrovision were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as they feel the company is adequately capitalized and in a position to withstand the weakening credit markets.
JP Morgan upgraded Eaton (NYSE: ETN) to Overweight from Neutral citing bullish management comments at its conference last week.
Piper upgraded Macrovision (NASDAQ: MVSN) to Buy from Neutral citing the closure of the Gemstar deal.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Lehman upgraded U.S. stocks to Overweight from Underweight.
Goldman added Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) to its Conviction Buy List.
Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) was raised at HSBC to Neutral from Underweight.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's some reason for caution, but no reason to get out of the market here.
There all right there. Don't you feel it? Hundreds of stocks at resistance. Hundreds have formed a nice base. The Transports and the Dow are moving in synch. The earnings period surprisingly great, with so many companies not stung by the raw costs. Three straight up weeks, with all the commodity stocks showing signs of rolling over; most at crucial "must hold" levels except for gold, which has already crashed, making the inflation case much dimmer in the eyes of the traders.
Yet, you simply can't read the papers. They are too awful. The cost to the consumers for everything from food to gasoline is humongous and going higher, according to all the food execs I had on last week. We are getting nowhere near a bottom in housing. The layoffs, while not significant in the Labor Report on Friday, sure seem endless. The two major presidential candidates from the Democratic side want to tax the oil companies into oblivion, the leaders of the last year. Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) blew the quarter. So did GE (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take).
Too far, too fast, based on those grim items.
To me, this is the first week since the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) bottom that I think seems aimless.
But perhaps there's a "split the difference" way to approach this week: options expiration.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they can't be profitable with this huge cost – it's time to move on.
Here's a revelation. The airline industry is disappearing right before our eyes. And it doesn't even matter. They can merge all they want, they can try to cut costs through synergy, but the business can't survive $120 oil. The variable cost is 35% of their expense. That's not tenable and it is going higher. Fares have to double to make it up. That's just not tenable. The Dreamliner's a nice savings, but this American industry won't get there in time to be saved by it.
Last week we saw the big give-up, the departure of even the longest-term investors. The stocks are signaling that most of them will have to restructure through bankruptcy. They have done it before, but this time it doesn't matter. The fare increases have to occur, and they are such that the airline structures can't be profitable. It is one of those industries that can't stay afloat without massive federal subsidies, and that can't happen.
I have hated the airline stocks ever since 1985 when I recommended Delta (NYSE: DAL) (Cramer's Take) and my clients promptly dropped 50%. I reiterate that after the tremendous declines these stocks have, they are still worth avoiding. Don't be tempted to pick up these stocks if oil "swoons" down to $115. The airlines will rally, but they will need to do every bit of financing possible if a rally occurs.
Eaton, a maker of industrial parts and systems, said that first-quarter earnings rose 5% as demand from international markets pushed sales higher. Net income rose to $247 million, or $1.64 per share, beating Wall Street expectations. Sales rose 12% to $3.5 billion. Eaton shares rose $1.09 in trading Monday to $80.39, but slipped 13 cents in after-hours trading.
J.B. Hunt, which provides truckload and intermodal shipping services, said its first-quarter profit fell 18% because of weak demand and a rising fuel prices. The company earned $36.4 million, or 28 cents per share, missing Wall Street estimates. Total operating revenue rose 10% to $878.4 million. Shares fell 31 cents to $29.15 Monday, and continued to fall in aftermarket trading.
Stanley Furniture, which makes wood furniture for the residential market, said its first-quarter profit tumbled 37%, but beat Wall Street's expectations. The company reported income of $1 million, or 10 cents per share. Sales fell 17% to $62.5 million. Shares fell 15 cents Monday, then plunged another $1, or 9.4%, in after-hours trading to $9.59.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Limelight Networks, Diebold and Charles & Colvard were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded shares of Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) to Hold from Underperform on valuation and believes it impossible to know what will happen to the company from here. On the downside, Jefferies notes a permanent injunction means the business is nearly worthless, but on the upside, is the possibility of sale to Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) or a large telecomm service provider.
Baird raised Diebold (NYSE: DBD) to Outperform from Neutral citing expectations of a higher bid from United Technologies (NYSE: UTX).
Merriman upgraded shares of Charles & Colvard (NASDAQ: CTHR) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the current share price does not account for the potential wholesale value of the company's manufactured inventory and method patent. They believe Charles & Colvard is a potential acquisition target.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman raised Eaton (NYSE: ETN) to Conviction Buy from Neutral and added Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) to its Conviction Buy List.
All of them, what do they have in common? They have left the U.S. behind. We are an afterthought. If you can prove on a conference call that Ben Bernanke has nothing to do with your book of business, you are going higher.
Notice Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take) and Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take). They can't quit. When the coal operators come to their sense and realize that they can make fortunes digging for more, then Joy Global will take out the high. I am using any weakness to buy Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) (Cramer's Take), the tug of the non-U.S. cyclicals is that strong.
When the entire mutual fund industry is up in arms about a new form of ETF, should investors take note? You bet they should.
There's an interesting article over on SeekingAlpha by HardAssetsInvestor. The article focuses on the Exchange Traded Note product, something I've written about previously. The ETN is similar to an ETF in that it's a fund that trades like a stock. Unlike ETFs though, the ETN is not backed by the underlying assets. Rather, it's a zero-coupon note (essentially, a bond) that's backed by its underwriters. So, it throws an added layer of default risk into the whole investment game.
Where things get even more interesting is the tax treatment of the ETN product. Says HardAssetInvestor's Brad Zigler, "No tax consequence befalls the noteholder until the security is liquidated or matures. Taxes during the holding period? Zip. Nada. Bupkis. That beats the heck out of the tax treatment of mutual funds, too, which distribute income and capital gains." Unlike ETFs investing in commodities which are treated with a complicated tax structure on the futures the funds invest in, ETNs don't pass these taxes through to investors.
As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from 
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