The US dollar is down 20% since 2002 on a trade weighted basis. Other world economies like China are dynamic, with growth rates of 8 and 9%. With that kind of clout, countries like China, India and Brazil, can choose where to place their reserves.

Slowly, developing countries are shifting their reserves away from the dollar into the euro and yen. Neil Mellor, strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE: BK), which has some $20 trillion dollars in assets under custody said: "I don't think there will be an imminent move, but it is quite clear there's a plan to shift reserves to a more balanced portfolio."

Barclays Capital Research reported that central banks placed 63% of new cash in non US currencies between April and July.

Investors have probably heard Obama administration officials, like previous Bush administration officials –- and just about every other administration since 1981 -- rattle off the mantra, 'The United States is committed to a strong dollar' even as the dollar continues to weaken. What's going on here?

Well, first: the currency market, long-term, emphasizes actions, not words, and current U.S. public policies do not support the dollar. To strengthen it, the U.S. must cut its trade deficit, eliminate the budget deficit, and get the U.S. economy growing at an adequate rate again.

The U.S. dollar continued to decline today, and has helped push gold prices up sharply in today's action.

The dollar has been very weak lately, and as more concern mounts of the dollar's strength more investors are rushing into the precious metal, which traded up as high as $1,069.70 today, and is currently up $1.70 an ounce to $1,059.20.

The US dollar is cascading downward. This move is causing banks, especially central banks, to shift reserves out of the dollar into the euro and yen.

A Bloomberg survey reports that policy makers boosted currency holdings by $41.3 billion dollars in the last quarter. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63% of this new cash into euros, and yen. The dollar's share fell to 37% from 63% in 1998.

How is this affecting the dollar on the commodity futures markets? The dollar fell to 75.77 last week on the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE). This is the lowest level since March 4th, when it was at 89.62 (The dollar is traded against a basket of currencies.)

Is a 'super-currency' – one that could for all intents and purpose replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency – possible?

Well, it is possible, but in this case the aforementioned switch would certainly be super, as it would represent a gargantuan task and adjustment period for members of the global financial system.

What's one way to lower U.S. gasoline prices? Cut the U.S. budget deficit.

The two seemingly disparate conditions are, in fact, linked. A large deficit, such as the one the United States has been running for basically the past decade (and especially since the start of the financial crisis), weakens the dollar.

What's next for the dollar? Good question. It depends on which set of economic data points you emphasize, or which mindset/narrative you believe is dominant in the currency markets.

After a nearly two-week decline against the world's other, major currencies, the dollar see-sawed with the euro for the upper hand Friday, as dollar bulls and dollar bears each tried to make their case that their view was more supported by current conditions. The dollar strengthened one-half cent versus the euro to $1.4696 and about 1.8 cents versus the British pound to $1.6260 on Friday at mid-day.

Oil traders have been flocking into the precious crude today as the U.S. dollar fell to a new yearly low against the euro.

Oil prices have passed through the psychological $70 barrier, and continued to move higher, currently trading up $3.12 on the day to $71.14. Oil is not the only commodity that has been moving higher, as gold prices moved through the $1,000 mark for the first time since this past February.

The gold market has been on fire for the past two days. Wednesday, the October gold contract rose $24.00 per ounce (each $1.00 equals $100.00). Thursday, the October gold contract is up another $5.60 to $982.70 per ounce (as of 9:19 EDT).

Spot (physical) gold in London is $982.60 per ounce. The London gold fix is widely followed as the benchmark for trading futures.

Where's the dollar headed from here? Well, if you're in the camp that argues both monetary and fiscal stimulus guarantee rising inflation, the dollar will trend lower in the immediate quarters ahead, and probably for longer.

If you're in the camp that argues that given asset destruction, and massive job lay-offs, pricing power is non-existent, the dollar will hold its own against the world's other major currencies.

Those who follow the U.S. economy and the financial markets are accustomed to hearing investors and holders of U.S. assets complain about the weak dollar.

'The federal budget deficit is going to lead to a weak dollar and rampant inflation.' 'The Fed is going to inflate the economy to help the U.S. pay its debt, undermining the value of my portfolio.' 'The weak dollar is causing inflation, forcing up the price of oil and other commodities.'

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis

The consensus seems to be blowing off the G20 as a nonevent for the dollar, but then again the consensus didn't anticipate the Fed announcing that it would begin to monetize Treasury debt a couple weeks ago either. And it was that Fed decision that brought us to where we are today.

iShares Barclays Capital Long Term Tr ETF (NYSE: TIP) closed at $102.35. TIP April call option implied volatility is at 10, puts are at 8; below its 6-month average of 13, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Down (NYSE: UDN) is a rules-based index composed solely of short USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being short the U.S. Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. UDN closed at $25.52. UDN May option implied volatility of 20 is below its 26-week average of 25, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Up (NYSE: UUP) is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the U.S. Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. UUP closed at $25.31. UUP May call option implied volatility is at 17, puts are at 21; below its 26-week average of 22, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

The FOMC will issue its statement tomorrow at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. With interest rates already at virtually zero, there's obviously not going to be any change in that department. However, I do believe there is a high probability that the Fed will follow the Bank of England's example and begin buying government bonds (i.e. – quantitative easing or "printing money") on top of the agency debt and MBS that it is already monetizing.

U.S. stock markets appear to be in free-fall (at least short-term), the federal budget deficit will exceed $1 trillion for at least the next two years, and Congress will likely have to raise the national debt ceiling above $13 trillion -- all negative developments for the dollar.

So what does the greenback do Monday? Of course, it continues to rise -- strengthening about one-half cent versus the euro and more than 2 cents versus the British pound, to $1.2581 and $1.4034, respectively.