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Solar stock #2: Evergreen Solar (ESLR)

solar stocksAfter the closing bell on July 30, Massachusetts-based Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) reported second-quarter revenues of $63.8 million, compared to $55.8 million for the first quarter of 2009. The company's gross margin for the second quarter of 2009 was 1.9%, compared to 1.2% for the first quarter of 2009.

Unfortunately, these gross margins are way off the 34.7% we saw in the second quarter of 2008.

Continue reading Solar stock #2: Evergreen Solar (ESLR)

Evergreen Solar scores an upgrade, despite Lehman-related losses

Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) plunged to an all-time low of $3.30 on Tuesday, thanks to the widespread ripple effect caused by Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy filing. As Evergreen confessed to a potentially substantial Lehman-related loss, analysts rushed yesterday to hand out price-target cuts. Today, Citigroup bucked the trend by upgrading ESLR from "sell" to "hold."

The bullish note seems primarily based on increased transparency regarding the Lehman situation, as well as a sharp decline in the stock's valuation. In a note to clients, Citigroup clarified, "With ESLR more clearly defining its exposure to a Lehman Bros. bankruptcy, the worst-case scenario is now well-defined . . . these issues appear much better discounted at current levels."

In response to the upgrade, ESLR has added more than 13% today. The shares are trading around the $5 mark, though, which puts them in territory not previously explored since May 2005. The stock's year-to-date loss now totals 75% -- a stomach-churning plunge, for sure, but the stubbornly bullish sentiment among investors suggests that more downside may be in store for Evergreen Solar.

Continue reading Evergreen Solar scores an upgrade, despite Lehman-related losses

Analyst calls: GS, ITG, HOKU, CME, QSII, TUP, ABFS, PSE, RAX

Analyst upgrades:

  • Wachovia upgraded shares of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) to Outperform from Market Perform on expectations for greater pricing power given Goldman's position as the largest remaining independent securities firm.
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded Investment Technology Group Inc (NYSE: ITG) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company will take market share with the reshaping of the large wire-house brokerage community. The company's target was raised to $37 from $33.
  • Broadpoint raised Hoku Scientific Inc (NASDAQ: HOKU) to Buy from Neutral as they believe the contract with Tianwei New Energy reduces financing risk.
  • ACE Ltd (NYSE: ACE) and The Travelers Companies Inc (NYSE: TRV) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Axcelis Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: ACLS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold and Evergreen Solar Inc (NASDAQ: ESLR) was lifted to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.

Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: GS, ITG, HOKU, CME, QSII, TUP, ABFS, PSE, RAX

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) signs $1.2 billion contract

ESLR logoEvergreen Solar (NYSE: ESLR) shares are trading higher today after the company announced today it has signed a sales contract with Germany's IBC Solar AG valued at $1.2 billion. Under the deal, the company will make the solar panels at a recently opened plant in Devens and at another factory expected to open in 2010. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ESLR.

After hitting a one-year high of $18.85 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $7.52 in March. ESLR opened this morning at $10.16. So far today the stock has hit a low of $9.58 and a high of $10.22. As of 12:40, ESLR is trading at $10.11, up $0.95 (10.4%). The chart for ESLR looks bullish but deteriorating while S&P gives ESLR a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $7.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 19.0% return in just two months as long as ESLR is above $7.50 at September expiration. Evergreen would have to fall by more than 25.7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Evergreen Solar (ESLR) signs $1.2 billion contract

BusinessWeek looks at solar stocks

With the high fuel prices over the past year, solar stocks have been making some nice gains. But there are some signs that they may not be as safe as they appear. Investors' interest in solar companies increased due to soaring crude futures, but there are some factors to take into account before investing money into solar.

The current BusinessWeek looks at stocks such as First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), SolarWorld and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), which have been facing increased volatility based on contract deal news or the lack thereof.

A major impact came in May, with speculation that Germany would lower subsidies given to companies and individuals who install alternative energy equipment. But the cut was not as deep as expected and stocks rebounded nicely.

Continue reading BusinessWeek looks at solar stocks

Tech Vibes

Editor's Note: This post comes courtesy of Sean Udall, a wise player in the tech field. For more, visit www.minyanville.com.

Interesting article on Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone "potential" teardown. Implications are that the 3G iPhone will carry higher margins than previous model. We will see shortly and I still expect Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) to benefit from the actual teardown.

Speaking of Broadcom, the company got the all clear on a patent infringement deal with SiRF Technology Holdings (NASDAQ: SIRF) and I like the emerging technical setup on BRCM.

Elsewhere, Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) reports today and has been a solid tech name this year, really many years for that matter. I don't expect any big surprises.

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) is at the William Blair growth conference. Gaming sales were reported strong again last week. This is probably a cheap solid grower but I prefer the growing online gaming model, I've discussed on the Buzz in the past.

SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) was upgraded this morning and presenting at an Alternative Energy conference on Wednesday. I was going to trade this again but the analyst action is spiking the stock today.

Evergreen Solar's (NASDAQ: ESLR) shareholder and analyst meetings is scheduled this week and I'm thinking this could fuel bullish action.

Regarding Comverge (NASDAQ: COMV) and EnerNOC (NASDAQ: ENOC), I overheard some bullish comments on these stocks on CNBC this morning. I've discussed COMV on the buzz previously and ENOC is their sister company. Both companies offer technology solutions for managing the power grid more efficiently and I think both stocks are cheap emerging growth stocks.

Position in BRCM, ESLR, COMV.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR): Shares cycling in bullish 'flag'

Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) develops, manufactures and markets solar power products. Its proprietary String Ribbon technology process is used to make photovoltaic cells that convert sunlight into electricity. These are the primary components of solar panels used to power such systems as highway call boxes, microwave stations, billboard lighting mechanisms and rural electric power sources. Most of the firm's sales involve customers in the United States.

Evergreen had good news for investors late last week. German-based Ralos Vertriebs GmbH signed a $750 million contract for solar panel deliveries, beginning in 2008 and extending through 2013. That boosted the company's sales total over the past two weeks to about $1 billion. Lazard subsequently issued positive comments on the stock, noting enhanced visibility.

Continue reading Evergreen Solar (ESLR): Shares cycling in bullish 'flag'

Analyst upgrades: Staples, Evergreen Solar, Genzyme

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Staples, Evergreen Solar and Genzyme were today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) to Buy from Hold following the company's raised bid for Corporate Express based on the increased chance the deal gets deal done and SPLS achieves meaningful EPS accretion.
  • Jefferies also raised Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe concerns regarding capital needs are now priced into the stock and that the company continues to take risk out of its growth story through execution.
  • Bernstein upgraded Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ) to Outperform from Market Perform citing increased confidence in GENZ's product portfolio, geographic and therapeutic diversification, improved outlook, and valuation.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • BearingPoint (NYSE: BE) was upgraded at Goldman to Neutral from Sell.
  • Lehman upgraded Nexen (NYSE: NXY) to Overweight from Equal Weight.

Analyst initiations: SPWR, ESLR and ABT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: SunPower, Evergreen Solar and Abbott Lab were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Citigroup believes SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) is faced with high cell production costs, its silicon cost and installation cost advantages are increasingly commoditized and finds the risk/reward even at current levels. Shares were initiated with a Hold rating and $105 target.
  • Citigroup believes Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) faces significant financing requirements over the next few years, making it difficult to see a sustained period of EPS growth beyond the $1 range. The firm sees downside to $5/share. Shares were assumed with a Sell rating and $8 target.
  • UBS started Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) with a Buy rating and $61 target. The firm is positive on Humira potential growth and expects Xience to drive vascular operating margins to positive.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) lifted by cpacity expansion plans

ESLR logoEvergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) shares are trading higher after the company announced it has started an expansion project to double the capacity of its Devens, Mass., plant to 160 megawatts by the end of next year. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ESLR.

After hitting a one-year high of $18.85 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $7.52 in March. ESLR opened this morning at $11.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $11.10 and a high of $11.97. As of 12:30, ESLR is trading at $11.27, up $0.57 (5.3%). The chart for ESLR is bearish but improving, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $7.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 16.3% return in just five and a half months as long as ESLR is above $7.50 at September expiration. Evergreen would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money.

ESLR hasn't been below $7.50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $9 recently. This trade could be risky if the prices for oil and other energies fall off some in the coming months, but even if that happens, that position could be protected by support the stock might find just above $7.50, where it bottomed out in the past month.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ESLR.

Newspaper wrap-up: TPG, others, to invest $5B Washington Mutual

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Evergreen Solar Inc (NASDAQ: ESLR) is expected to announce today that it will double the size of its manufacturing facility in Massachusetts and add about 350 new jobs as part of its ongoing expansion, according to the Boston Globe.
WEB SITES:
  • Bloomberg reported that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) has been the only major investment bank that has refused to reduce its leverage. In fact, Goldman's adjusted leverage ratio of assets rose to 18.6 at the end of February, from 17.5 at the end of November.

Analyst initiations: JAVA, FTI, TPTX and EXEL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sun Microsystems (JAVA), FMC Technologies (FTI), TorreyPines (TPTX), and Exelixis (EXEL) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: JAVA) was initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital, which views the shares' risk/reward as favorable around $5.
  • FMC Technologies Inc (NYSE: FTI) was initiated with a Buy by Jefferies, which believes strong subsea fundamentals will drive strong earnings by the company.
  • TorreyPines Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: TPTX) was initiated with a Strong Buy at JMP Securities, which said PhIIb data in Q4 on the company's tezampanel drug could increase investor conviction on the first in-class drug.
  • Exelixis Inc (NASDAQ: EXEL) was initiated with a Buy by Lazard, which believes Exelixis has a promising pipeline.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst initiations 11-22-06: Nine firms initiate SAIC with Hold/Neutral

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Marvel Entertainment (MVL) and SAIC (SAI) topped today's extensive list of initiations.

  • RBC Capital Markets initiated Marvel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:MVL) with a Sector Perform rating and $30 target; the firm said Marvel may have already exploited what it can out of previous titles and that future film slates of licensed characters are not guaranteed to have the same appeal as "Spider Man" or "X-Men."
  • SAIC, Inc. (NYSE:SAI) was initiated at a multitude of firms today: Stifel Nicolaus, Jefferies, Citigroup and KeyBanc McDonald started SAIC with a Hold rating; Morgan Stanley and Stephens started the defense company with an Equal Weight rating; Bank of America and Cowen initiated SAIC with a Neutral rating; Bear Stearns initiated them with a Peer Perform rating. Mostly all cited valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

  • Needham started Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:ESLR) with a Buy rating and $12 target, citing expectations of the solar power manufacturer to grow at 2x the overall PV industry, resulting in market share gains.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+32.1210,465.83
NASDAQ+7.802,176.98
S&P 500+4.701,110.35

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:36 PM

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