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Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Christoph Scherbaum, editor of the German edition of Personal Finance, who says German investors are cautious, but optimistic about their market.

Q. Christoph, some experts predict the beginning of a prolonged slowdown that will push consumer price inflation in Germany to as low as 2% next June. What do you think?

A. Consumer prices are not really a problem. August inflation was less than 4% and is estimated at 3% until year-end. The delayed effects of rising commodity prices will have a steeper decline. In addition, second-round effects through higher wage developments are now more visible. Therefore, the European Central Bank-despite poor economic data-will wait for a reassessment of its inflation target for 2010 until the second half of 2009

Q. To what extent do you think the US's financial worries are extending to German financial institutions?

A. It's a difficult question, but we have no big problem with our banks. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck recently stated: "Although this financial crisis undoubtedly is the biggest economic risk for the German economy, I think the potential impact on us-after inquiries and interviews with the Bundesbank president-to be limited". He also reaffirmed the intent of a balanced federal budget in 2011.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany

Follow the medals: An Olympic portfolio

"While watching the Olympics, I couldn't thinking about the investment opportunities of the various countries participating in the games," says exchange-traded fund expert Carl Delfeld.

Recognizing that this is not a "scientific" approach nor a primary basis for seriously determining one's asset allocation the editor of Around the World with ETFs speculates, "While it is admittedly a stretch, let's consider what an ETF porfolio of the top ten countries in the Beijing Olympics medal count would look like."

"I hope that while watching the Olympic games many investors were also reminded at how the world is changing and why they need a global portfolio to capture value and growth around the world.

"The U.S. did remarkably well across the board underscoring its role as the world's leading investment destination. China surged to win the most gold and reach the symbolic level of 100 medals.

"Quite an achievement that punctuates China's growing heft. With the Shanghai Composite down 55% this year, it has come down to earth and is interesting from a valuation perspective.

"Next comes Russia with a performance fueled by a strong Olympian tradition and petro dollars but perhaps a bit overshadowed by the Georgian fiasco. I will take a pass on this one even though it is off 36% since just May.

Continue reading Follow the medals: An Olympic portfolio

Time for a British win over Germany?

Recent reports highlight U.S. investors' strong and continuing interest in foreign markets. In many cases, cash is being invested indirectly, often through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that mirror the currency-adjusted performance of publicly-traded shares in countries around the world.

While there are any number of fundamental reasons for choosing one nation's equity market over another, sometimes interesting opportunities crop up that seem, at first glance anyway, mainly technical in nature.

A comparison of the relative performance of the country funds for the United Kingdom and Germany, both based in Europe and subject to a number of the same macroeconomic influences, would seem to suggest such an opportunity.

Continue reading Time for a British win over Germany?

Global gains: Böhmer's bets on Germany

I've just returned from the World Money Show, where some 10,000+ investors gathered to learn about global investing. I had a chance to meet with many of the advisors who were featured at the show, and I have been highlighting some of their favorite investment ideas. To view all of the stocks featured in this special global report, click here.

"Germany is the third largest economy in the world, and it's leading index -- the DAX 30 -- has been in a bull market for four years," notes Heiko Böhmer.

The editor of Privat-Finanzletter offers a trio of German stocks -- on sports cars, solar cells, and Internet broadband growth -- as well as an ETF play for U.S. investors seeking an easy way to participate in the German market.

He explains, "Changes are occurring, as Angela Merkel has become the first female chancellor in Germany and the first chancellor from the former GDR. Meanwhile, we are seeing an ongoing consumer record, health care reform, corporate tax reform, and a recovering construction sector.

"Earnings growth for 2006 was estimated at 21%. I would caution, however, that earnings could slow this year and, after a four-year bull market, there is a chance for an overall market correction -- perhaps as much as 15%.

"Meanwhile, Germany is the biggest export nation in the world and is known for brands that are recognized worldwide. For example, Porsche (Other OTC:PSEPF) is the most profitable car producer. Earnings grew 78% from 2005 to 2006. The U.S. is a very important market.

"Meanwhile, its stake in Volkswagen could grow later this year. Currently, VW's earnings are the biggest driver for Porsche shares right now. Longer term, Porsche will be selling more higher margin cars such as the 911 Turbo. And, its Panamera will be launched in 2009-2010.

Continue reading Global gains: Böhmer's bets on Germany

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 05:23 AM

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