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Betting Against Retail with an XRT Put Spread

A parade of retailers reported their January same-store sales figures on Thursday morning, and the results were actually much better than expected. The aggregate 4.2% rise in monthly sales easily surpassed analysts' expectations, leading to a solidly bullish session for the SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) exchange-traded fund (ETF).

However, not everyone was won over by January's stronger-than-forecast sales data. Around midday on Thursday, one skeptical options trader initiated a long put spread on the XRT, in an attempt to capitalize on expected weakness in the retail-based fund.

Continue reading Betting Against Retail with an XRT Put Spread

Call selling hits U.S. Natural Gas Fund as new share creation resumes

The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (NYSE: UNG) resumed issuing new shares Monday, ending a long drought for the exchange-traded fund (ETF). UNG, which tracks price changes in natural gas, hasn't issued new creation baskets (blocks of 10,000 units) since June, thanks in part to newly enacted position limits on the federal and exchange level.

While it's back to business as usual, traders should still proceed with caution when it comes to this commodity-based fund. UNG warned late Friday that its units are still trading at a premium to its net asset value (NAV), which could spell trouble for investors.

Continue reading Call selling hits U.S. Natural Gas Fund as new share creation resumes

McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Our pick to profit from a McCain-Palin victory in November is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an exchange-traded fund that is designed to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion," explains Nate Pile, editor of Nate's Notes.

"We would buy gold in order to hedge ourselves against what we expect would be a heightened sense of uncertainty that foreign investors would express (at least initially) if the hard-to-predict 'mavericks' take the helm.

"I also continue to believe that we are still in the early stages of what will prove to be a multi-year boom for commodities, and much of the selling we have seen in gold appears to be for primarily emotional reasons.

"The recent strength of the dollar may partially explain the drop in gold, but for the most part, I think we have simply been witnessing some good old-fashioned panic selling.

"Unlike some other ETFs that invest in precious metals via the buying and selling of futures contracts on the underlying commodities, SPDR Gold Trust (formerly known as the streetTracks Gold Trust) actually buys and sells gold bullion, and each share of the Trust represents approximately 1/10th of an ounce of gold.

"However, while there are certain benefits to actually owning gold itself (as opposed to a derivative contract associated with the commodity), investors need to be aware that gold is considered a 'collectible' by the IRS, and thus investing in this ETF can result in a higher tax rate being applied to any gains that are achieved.

Continue reading McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

High-yielding ETF: a short-term buying opportunity?

The iShares DJ Select Dividend Index Fund (AMEX: DVY) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) comprised of relatively high-yielding U.S. stocks. Despite that, the ETF has lagged the S&P 500 index by more than 2.8 percentage points over the past two months.

The culprit: weakness in financials and utilities, which account for 39% and 22%, respectively, of the fund's top 20 holdings.

Still, regardless of my view that both sectors will likely see more downside in the long run, the odds are that with Monday being the start of a new quarter, we may see buying of those depressed sectors by bargain-hunters looking to benefit from a contrarian bounce, which will support the price of the ETF.

Currently unsettled market conditions may also give the ETF a lift, as worried investors who nevertheless prefer to remain invested in equities seek a higher-than-average-yielding safe haven from a potential market storm.

Finally, the iShares DJ Select Dividend Index fund is now back to the same levels it was relative to the S&P 500 index in early 2004 and the spring of 2006. On both occasions, the ETF rebounded sharply on a comparative basis.

Given all that, this ETF might be worth a look in the near term.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

Time for a British win over Germany?

Recent reports highlight U.S. investors' strong and continuing interest in foreign markets. In many cases, cash is being invested indirectly, often through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that mirror the currency-adjusted performance of publicly-traded shares in countries around the world.

While there are any number of fundamental reasons for choosing one nation's equity market over another, sometimes interesting opportunities crop up that seem, at first glance anyway, mainly technical in nature.

A comparison of the relative performance of the country funds for the United Kingdom and Germany, both based in Europe and subject to a number of the same macroeconomic influences, would seem to suggest such an opportunity.

Continue reading Time for a British win over Germany?

Top Picks 2007: Goodall goes global with an ETF

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

MSCI EAFE Value (NYSE: EFV), an exchange-traded fund, is the top speculative selection for 2007 from Leonard Goodall, editor of No-Load Portfolios.

"More aggressive investors should give international exposure to their portfolios, and this exchange-traded fund tracks the value sector of Morgan Stanley's Europe, Australia, and Far East benchmark. Every investor today, from very conservative to very aggressive, should have an international component in their portfolio.

"This fund will enable the investor to profit from worldwide growth patterns, but the fact that it emphasizes the value stocks in the index means that it should also provide some protection against market downturns.

"Because the fund is new, it has no long-term record, but it has a one-year return of 29.9%. Investors should not buy this fund to "chase performance," nor should they expect that return in the future. Rather they would do well to add ETFs to their holdings if they want to build a balanced, well-diversified portfolio."

To see Leonard's favorite conservative ETF for 2007, click here.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 05:58 PM

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