The nearly always-on-the-mark Bloomberg News columnist Caroline Baum reminds investors/traders -- and potential home buyers -- that one should not jump into summer by jumping into a home purchase (if you can avoid it).

Baum notes that one has to view April's 6.3% increase in existing home sales in the proper context: housing has been down so much and for so long that every incremental pop up looks like a housing sector recovery. It isn't.

New and existing home sales peaked in July 2005 and September 2005, respectively, but housing starts didn't until January 2006. The result? A massive inventory build.

A record housing recession

Single-family starts are down 63% from their January 2006 peak, easily 'topping' peak-to-trough declines of 38% in 1973-75, and 57% in 1984-1991, and approaching the 65% slide in the housing recession of 1977-1981, Baum says.

Sales of existing homes in fell 1.0% in March 2008, the National Association of Realtors announced Wednesday, as the prospect of continued home price declines discouraged potential buyers.

The NAR's existing home sales index declined to 83.0 in March 2008. The index totaled a revised 83.8 in February 2008, and stood at 103.9 in March 2007.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the March 2008 existing home sales index to drop to 83.8%.

Regional conditions vary

Conditions varied by region. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4% in March 2008 to 74.1; in the West, the index fell 1.4% to 91.2, and in the South, it fell 0.1% to 84.9. In the Northeast, the index rose 12.5% to 80.8%.

Sales of existing homes fell slightly in March 2008, the National Association of Realtors announced Tuesday, as resales continued to lag amid the nation's worst housing slump in more than 15 years. It was the fourth existing home sales decline in the last five months.

Sales advanced at a 4.93-million-unit annualized pace in March 2008, the NAR said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 existing home sales to register a 4.95-million-unit annualized rate. The February 2008 existing homes sales statistic was revised to a 5.03-million-unit annualized pace.

Regionally, March 2008 existing home sales fell 6.5% in the Midwest, 3.5% in the South, and 2.2% in the West. Sales roses 2.2% in the Northeast.

Meanwhile, the U.S. median home price plummeted 7.7% to $200,700 on a year-over-year basis. The median price was $217,400 a year ago.

Sales of existing homes declined 1.9% in February 2008, the National Association of Realtors announced Tuesday. It was the third existing home sales decline in the last four months.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected February 2008 existing home sales to decline 1.0%. The January 2008 existing homes sales statistic was revised higher to an increase of 0.3%.

Regionally, February 2008 existing home sales fell 9.8% in the West, 5.5% in the South, and 3.7% in the Midwest. Sales rose 3.2% in the Northeast.

Meanwhile, the aggregate U.S. existing-home price will probably decline by 1.4% to a median of $215,800 for all of 2008 before rising 3.7% to $223,800 next year, the NAR said.

The existing home sales statistic is considered a lead economic indicator because the metric tracks actual signings for the month reported, in this case, February 2008.

Economic Analysis: A sub-par February 2008 existing home sales statistic, but one not entirely inconsistent with the consensus estimate. Existing home sales remain generally weak, which is typical for an economy in recession and a housing market where potential buyers expect future price declines, and hence postpone home purchase decisions.

Existing home sales rose 2.9% in February 2008 to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors announced Monday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected February 2008 existing home sales to total a 4.85 million unit annualized rate.

Sales are down 23.8% compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, inventories fell 3% to 4.03 million units, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace.

The median sales price also plummeted by 8.2% compared to a year ago, to $195,900. February 2008 sales by region were as follows: Northeast, up 11.3%; Midwest, up 2.5%, South, up 2.1%, and the South, down 1.1%.

February 2008 sales of single-family homes rose 2.8%, while condo sales rose 3.7%.

Housing Sector Analysis: For a change, a good monthly existing home sales report. Sales did not rise dramatically, but the important point is that unit sales did not decline substantially in February 2008 either, and it's likely lower home sale prices are beginning to stimulate modest demand. Still, a word of caution to potential home buyers in the United States: median home sales prices are likely to continue to decline through at least Q3 2008. One month's rise in existing home sales is not nearly enough to suggest a trend, and inventories are likely to continue to rise given current foreclosure trends, and due to the approaching spring/summer period when many families planning to move list homes for sale.

Sales of existing homes and condominiums in January 2008 totaled a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units, the National Association of Realtors announced Monday. The January statistic was roughly in-line with the 4.84 million consensus estimate.

The January 2008 stat was also 0.4% lower than the revised 4.91-million-unit December 2006 annualized rate, and was also the lowest sales pace since the NAR started tracking combined sales in 1999.

Further, on a year-over-year basis, resales plunged 23.4% compared to January 2007.

Housing's doldrums continue

Economist Steve Affinito said the song remains the same regarding the U.S. housing sector.

Several major pieces of economic news were released this morning, and all were good. Personal Spending rose more than expected, the fastest growth in two years. The Chicago PMI report rose more than expected as well. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment report seemed to hold its own. In addition, the core inflation number came in within the Fed's target range.

This is a major contrast to the numbers earlier in the week. Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence reports were terrible, and both Existing and New Home Sales indicated that there appears to be no end in sight for the housing slump. The only good number was Second-Quarter GDP. However, this was prior to the turmoil created in the markets by the credit crisis.

Then, why did the stock market rally on the bad news and is going down today on these positive economic reports? It's the liquidity. The stock market is driven by money and credit. As there is greater availability and lower cost, the market performs better. Who is the ultimate gatekeeper for this? You guessed it: the Federal Reserve.

Existing home sales took a dip again last month, the fifth straight month in a row, and are now running at a five-year low. It wasn't as big of a drop as many analysts had been expecting, but we did see a 0.2 percent decline, taking the annual rate of 5.75 million units.

Along with a drop in existing home sales came another drop in home prices. With the decline in prices last month, we have now seen existing home prices fall for twelve straight months in a row. The average last month dropped down to $230,200, an 0.6% drop from the same month last year.

Not all areas of the country went through further deterioration though. When the nation first started to undergo a housing slump, the effects were initially noticed in the East, now this area has been steadily improving. Last month the region saw not only rising existing home sales, but also an increase in home prices.

We see some more weakness in the housing market again today, indicating that the rough times are still not close to coming to an end anytime soon. The National Association of Realtors announced today that existing home sales fell by more than expected during the month of April.

According to today's report, existing home sales fell by 2.6%, which puts us at the lowest annual sales rate in the last four years at 5.99 million units. In reaction to the fall in home sales, we are also given data that the average price for home sales dropped in the month. This represents the ninth straight month that home prices have dropped.

Earlier this month I wrote about a release from the NAR that predicted that 2007 had the possibility of being the first year in history to show a drop in home prices. I would have to agree that we are well on our way for the first annual drop in prices. The current nine month streak of falling prices is the longest streak in history and right now no one is expecting to see this trend reverse in the near future.

April's median home price fell to $220,900 which is down 0.8% from the same month last year. According to the report earlier this month from the NAR, they are expecting that the average price for homes sold to fall down to $219,800 by the close of this year.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor'sObserver.