If Barack Obama is receiving advice from "my pal Warren" then he must not be listening. There is no way that Warren Buffett, the national debt hawk, would support Obama's stupid idea of giving another $1,000 back to every family in America. It is reported that he would pay for this by creating a windfall profit tax on oil companies.

This give-away program is an attempt to buy votes plain and simple. It would add to the national debt, discourage oil companies from investing and worse it would handicap American companies more than others and mortgage more of our children's futures.

The last thing the people of the United States need is more deficit spending. If we did tax oil companies, which I am against, I would only support using the funds for expanding education, research and development in science and engineering with the goal of maintaining our waning leadership in technology.

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) shares are falling today, pulled down by declining oil futures following a report the US supplies rose unexpectedly. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on XOM.

After hitting a one-year high of $96.12 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $77.55 in January. This morning, XOM opened at $81.99. So far today the stock has hit a low of $79.41 and a high of $81.99. As of 2:10, XOM is trading at $80.07, down $2.12 (-2.6%). The chart for XOM looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $90 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in one month as long as XOM is below $90 at August expiration. ExxonMobil would have to rise by more than 12% before we would start to lose money.

XOM hasn't been above $90 since late May and has shown resistance around $89 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil is driven back up soon, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance XOM might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $89 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in XOM.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that probes by the U.S. Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission center on whether American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG), as well as its financial products division, which has been the source of controversy and profits, intentionally inflated the value of contracts linked to subprime mortgages.
• According to a person familiar with the matter, the Financial Times reported that South Korea's LG Electronics may consider a bid for General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) appliance business.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) will sell the remaining gas stations it owns to gasoline distributors, according to the Associated Press. However, the distributors will continue to pay to use the Exxon and Mobil brand names.
• Xinhua reported that MetLife Inc (NYSE: MET) is seeking permission from Chinese regulators to combine its two ventures in China. The insurer said it believes the move will allow it to compete more effectively in the Chinese market.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) shares are falling as crude oil futures are retreating following yesterday's rally as the dollar is regaining some value. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on XOM.

After hitting a one-year low of $77.55 in January, the stock hit a one-year high of $96.12 in May. This morning, XOM opened at $87.91. So far today the stock has hit a low of $87.14 and a high of $88.43. As of 12:40, XOM is trading at $87.73, down 0.88 (-1.0%). The chart for XOM looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $95 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 12.4% return in five weeks as long as XOM is below $95 at July expiration. Exxon would have to rise by more than 8% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

XOM hasn't been above $95 for more than a few days in the past year and has shown resistance around $89 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil shoot higher, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance XOM might find near $95, where the stock has topped out four times in the past eight months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in XOM.

With the oil prices moving a lot from one day to the next, many of us are left wondering what could be the best solution when investing into an oil stock: buying it or selling it. As Eric Bolling underlines in TheStreet.com, last week was the first time during the past months when selling was seen as the best option.

The reverse side came on Thursday when the European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet warned about possible losses. After announcing that nothing changed for the ECB interest rate policy, Trichet said that the ECB might raise their interest rates which are already hitting high levels.

Last week's oil move proved that even oil prices can be manipulated in their rally. It looks like a few comments added at the right time can dramatically change the course of events. Congressman Bart Stupak's comments that he found nothing illegal going on in the oil price rise were enough to make new longs raise the price $5.49 per barrel for the first time ever.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the companies could deliver money to shareholders without sacrificing growth.

What happens if the oil companies start actually recognizing their good fortune -- their sustainable good fortune -- and start boosting dividends the way that Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) (Cramer's Take) did last week with its 67% hike.

Throughout this great run with oil and gas, it seems that the companies themselves haven't caught up with the good fortune. They haven't spent that much on drilling relative to profits, and they have chosen to buy a lot of stock back, never bad. But what if they start returning the profits to shareholders in the form of dividends?

I think that what could happen is that you wouldn't think that Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer's Take) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) (Cramer's Take) and Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) are such nose-bleeders.

If you'd said a hundred years ago that the offspring of John D. Rockefeller would lead the charge for improved corporate governance, social responsibility, and an end to energy dependence and global warming, a lot of people would have laughed. But Neva Rockefeller Goodwin and Peter O'Neill, descendants of John D. Rockefeller, are pushing for change at Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Three resolutions supported by the family have no chance of passing, according to the New York Times. One asks Exxon Mobil to study the impact of global warming on poor countries and another asks it to reduce its emissions. A third would encourage it to spend more money on research into renewable energy sources.

The resolution most likely to pass seeks to separate the role of chairman and CEO, stripping imperial executive Rex Tillerson of a chunk of his power. (To get an idea of how he runs the company from a corporate governance perspective, check out Robert Monks' book Corpocracy. )The Economist describes Exxon's annual meeting as "a vigorous exercise in doing the minimum required by the law." The Rockefeller's and others are looking to change that.

Operationally, the change would probably have no impact on the company's strategy or value. But in the long run, good corporate governance and stewardship of shareholder assets can be key contributors to total return.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) shares are falling today, as oil futures are finally relaxing after a week straight of advances as investors finally think that high prices may be cutting into demand. Exxon has been relatively flat all year, topping out at each peak on its chart around $95, including once less than two weeks ago. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on XOM.

After hitting a one-year low of $77.55 in January, the stock hit a one-year high of $96.12 last week. This morning, XOM opened at $90.04. So far today the stock has hit a low of $89.03 and a high of $90.05. As of 12:40, XOM is trading at $89.99, down $0.71 (-0.8%). The chart for XOM looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $100 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 10.6% return in eight weeks as long as XOM is below $100 at July expiration. Exxon would have to rise by more than 11% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Reuters reports that ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson went on The Today Show this morning to discuss the price of gasoline. Why? I think it's because he wants to diffuse political pressure to raise taxes on oil companies. Tillerson said that the price of gas is so high that people are using less of it.

But the subtext, in my opinion, was to put a face on the industry in the mind of the public so that it would be harder for politicians to harness public anger into higher taxes. Some big oil companies now have "too much" money coming in, with oil prices as high as they are. One of them has recently been in low-level debates with investors over what to do with all their cash as in "they can't spend it fast enough," an irony when gas prices are so high.

But as I posted yesterday, not all oil companies think that they have too much money coming in. Many such as Exxon and Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) have reported disappointing earnings in the first quarter because the price of a barrel of oil has doubled while the wholesale price of gasoline has risen only 39%.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) shares are falling today even though crude oil prices continue to make record highs as proponents of separating the chief executive and chairman roles at the company announced they will take their case to institutional investors and proxy voters. The group of dissidents includes descendants of John D. Rockefeller, the founder of Exxon's corporate ancestor Standard Oil.. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on XOM.

After hitting a one-year high of $95.27 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $77.55 in January. This morning, XOM opened at $89.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $87.97 and a high of $89.59. As of 11:45, XOM is trading at $88.65, down 0.72 (-0.8%). The chart for XOM looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $100 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.0% return in ten weeks as long as XOM is below $100 at July expiration. Exxon would have to rise by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

XOM hasn't been above $96 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $95 recently. This trade could be risky if crude oil prices continue to skyrocket, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance XOM might find at $95, where it has topped out four times in the past year.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in XOM.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to senior industry sources, the Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Defense could ask General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) to provide the vehicle design for a new generation of armored vehicles for the army. It is unclear whether General Dynamics, in competition with Nexter and Artec, will be awarded the contract or will be named the preferred bidder.
• Following the collapse in March of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC), the Financial Times also reported that the SEC will soon require Wall Street banks to publicly disclose more details about liquidity and capital positions. Cox also urged lawmakers to pass legislation that would allow the SEC, or another regulator, the "explicit mandate to supervise" investment banks.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the New York Times, Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will move senior investment banker Alberto Verme to Dubai by the end of the month in the hopes of establishing a stronger foothold in the region, a crucial area for global banks.
• The New York Times also reported that several large oil companies, including BP Plc (NYSE: BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), agreed to pay nearly $423M in cash in order to settle a lawsuit that alleged water contamination from methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive. Under the terms of the deal, the oil giants also agreed to pay 70% of the future cleanup costs for the next 30 years. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and several other companies named in the suit did not agree to the deal.

BBC news reported Saturday that militants in Nigeria have again sabotaged oil transfer infrastructure belonging to Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS A). This is the fifth incident of such attacks in recent weeks. The BBC report states: "Several previous ones have been blamed on supporters of the militant leader Henry Okah, who is currently awaiting trial on treason charges."

A Shell Oil spokesperson is quoted as stating that multiple oil delivery lines are affected and that some amount of oil has spilled into the environment. The company is undertaking oil containment measures and production volume has been reduced. Reuters News Service reported: "...the rebel Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) ... has already knocked 164,000 barrels a day off Shell's production in Nigeria with a pipeline bombing last month."

According to Reuters, local security forces are reporting that not just oil delivery lines have been affected. They claim that three oil wells and other equipment were also subjected to damage. Additionally, this news of sabotage comes on the heels of an eight day Nigerian labor strike against Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). That strike ended this past Thursday and had temporarily cut that company's Nigerian oil production in half. And of course, with oil supply problems and concerns, oil prices have increased.

Bloomberg News reports that ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) reported a disappointing first quarter -- making only $10.9 billion in net profit. This crushingly poor performance of $2.03 a share was 10 cents below analyst expectations.

Regrettably, Exxon simply cannot produce enough product to take advantage of the record prices for oil and gas. Its 17% profit increase lagged behind the gains of 25% and 63% reported this week by Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc. Meanwhile Exxon's oil and gas production fell 5.6% and -- like Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) the profit margins in its gasoline and chemical refineries were squeezed by their inability to raise prices enough to offset the rise in the price of the oil that goes into these refineries.

Another "crushing" blow for Exxon analysts was the mere 34% rise to $116.9 billion in its revenues. This was almost $2.6 billion below analyst estimates. The good news, if there can be any in such an abysmal report, is that Exxon is planning to increase spending on new wells and plant expansions by at least 20% this year to more than $25 billion.

As was reported in AP online, "Members of the Rockefeller family are pressuring Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) to focus more on renewable energy. The family members, who say they are the oil giant's longest continuous shareholders, say Exxon is too focused on short-term gains from sky-high oil prices. They also argue splitting the roles of chairman and CEO will help the company be more flexible in the future."

Last time I checked, companies had a responsibility to provide value for shareholders, and no one has done it better than the oil giant. It has been producing record earnings quarter after quarter, and that is exactly what it is supposed to do. Corporations are not supposed to be politically correct organizations that throw money around at the latest fad. Maybe Exxon doesn't believe that there is a global warming problem? Or maybe it wants to see a lot more scientific evidence of the problem before committing billions and billions of dollars to research. If I were a shareholder, I would want management to take the exact approach that it has been taking. The fact that it is the most profitable company in the world means something. It should be commended for providing shareholder value.

In fact, Bloomberg has an article that says that ocean cooling will stop global warming. Moreover, the article indeed mentions that the authors tried to spin the article because of Exxon. "We thought a lot about the way to present this because we don't want it to be turned around in the wrong way," Keenlyside said. "I hope it doesn't become a message of Exxon Mobil and other skeptics."

Sounds to me that they are right to be skeptical.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/1/08

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Thomson Reuters and Heritage-Crystal Clean were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. The firm sees risk to 2008 Street estimates given the consumer slowdown in the U.S. and potential ASP and margin pressure as channel inventory is worked down.
  
• Morgan Stanley assumed Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) with an Underweight rating and expects revenue growth in the company's financial business to slow sharply into 2009.
  
• William Blair believes Heritage-Crystal Clean (NASDAQ: HCCI) has the opportunity to gain market share over the next several years as a result of its differentiated parts-cleaning programs, strong sales organization, and experienced management team. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Lehman initiated Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) with Equal Weight ratings and targets of $20 and $17 and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) with Overweight ratings and targets of $195, $144 and $59, respectively.
  
• Pacific Growth started Spectranetics (NASDAQ: SPNC) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Merrill reinstated Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) with Buy ratings and price targets of $110, $105 and $125, respectively.