Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) on July 28th, Northrop reported adjusted 2nd quarter EPS ahead of consensus, and revised guidance higher --- highlighting improved margin performance. However, cash flow was weak and Northrop joined the list of defense companies to report declining backlog and weak bookings. Here are my concerns regarding Northrop and why it is a stock to sell: 1) the company is way too leveraged to the defense sector view where I expect pressure on Department of Defense spending and contractor margins. Northrop also joined the list of defense companies reporting weak book-to-bill on the back of another sequential decline in backlog. 2) While Northrop showed some margin improvement in the 2nd quarter --- outside of ships --- its margins and returns on capital remain the lowest in its peer group. 3) If interest rates and asset returns simply stay where they are today, 2011 and 2012 estimates could be reduced down by 11% (of current EPS) or even more.

Continue reading Be Wary of the Defense Stocks

Be Wary of the Defense Stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Aug 2010 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Readers of this space know that the preference is for long-term plays with companies with demonstrated business models (10 years), in an established market, with an average total annual return on equity of 20% during that span. It also helps if the company has a secular tailwind and/or is one of only a few players in a sector.

On the last point, Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) ranks very high, and it fares reasonably well in the other categories, too.

Northrop is the U.S.'s No. 3 defense contractor and the No. 1 shipbuilder in the world. Analysts like NOC's operational diversity, cash flow, and solid balance, but the company's standout dimensions, from an investment standpoint, are its electronics systems business (21% of revenue) and its ship building business (17% of revenue).

The electronics business is likely to remain a key player in radar/navigation/communications systems, moving forward, and the ships business is also in a preferred position: it's one of only two nuclear-power submarine makers in the U.S. and the only builder of U.S. aircraft carriers. Of course, no one can predict with any certainty the role aircraft carriers will play in defense operations -- the aircraft carrier's demise has been predicted for (seemingly) the past three decades -- but the sense here is that these ships will retain a role in the decades ahead. The company also builds the B-2 stealth bomber and has a 25% stake in the F-35 next-generation, joint-strike fighter.

Continue reading Northrop Grumman is oceans ahead of the competition

Northrop Grumman is oceans ahead of the competition originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 15 Dec 2007 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Lockheed Martin takes off in premarket trading, can it keep soaring? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Oct 2006 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.