Oil drops: $100 a barrel on the horizon?

Aaron Katsman — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:35:00 EST

Filed under: Personal Finance, Presidential Elections, Oil

With crude oil trading down to $126 a barrel, though some are still touting the price is moving to $200, or even $300 a barrel, it actually looks more like it is heading to at least $100 barrel. With growing sentiment in Congress, even among mainstream Democrats, to accept President Bush's proposal to do more drilling, the market has taken this as a signal that the government is serious about taking action to bring down prices at the pump. If the Democratic leadership would get on board, the current drop in crude prices would be nothing compared to what could happen.

Coupled with projected slower growth in emerging markets, most notably China, where we could see GDP growth slow by more than 2%, why should the price keep moving higher?

it's important to note that the decline we have witnessed over the last few weeks should result in a drop of over 50 cents a gallon at the pump. Coupled with people driving less, thus easing the demand, the increased supply, or the potential of increased supply on the market should help keep prices moving down.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/23/08.

Oil drops: $100 a barrel on the horizon? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Oil falls on inventory data

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 17:45:00 EST

Filed under: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Oil

A couple of days ago it looked as though we were well on our way to $70 oil, but prices have fallen over $1 a barrel today following this week's inventory data from the Energy Information Administration.

In its report the EIA indicated that oil stockpiles last week rose by an impressive 6.9 million barrels and gasoline reserves increased by 1.8 million barrels. With both oil and gasoline inventories up traders have pushed oil down $1.08 to $68.02 and for the moment has put the brakes on the recent bullish run for oil.

Refinery production has been a vital area of concern this year with American refineries being unable to maintain output levels running above the critical 90% range. Even though gasoline inventories were able to jump last week, America's refineries are not able to take responsibility for the recent upward move. The EIA reported that refinery output actually fell last week 1.6% down to 87.6%. The truth behind last week's increase was actually a rise in supplies of blending components for gasoline.

Even with today's inventory data and subsequent pullback in oil prices I do not think that we have seen the end of this current bull oil market. For now things are cooling off, but let's not forget that we are still only at the beginning of the summer driving months, and with all the violence that is taking place in the Middle East these days, there are still plenty of factors that could, and should, lead to higher prices by the end of the month. We may see oil pull back another couple of dollars down to $66, but I for one will not bet against $70 oil by the end of the month just yet.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

Oil falls on inventory data originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Jun 2007 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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