FDO opened this morning at $25.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.23 and a high of $26.05. As of 12:25, FDO is trading at $25.18, up $1.19 (4.9%). The chart for FDO looks neutral and S&P gives FDO a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just three and a half months as long as FDO is above $17.50 at January expiration. Family Dollar would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
FDO hasn't been below $17.50 since January and has shown support around $23.50 recently.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in FDO.
Even if the national headlines weren't already providing enough focus on the economy, plenty of economic data is due out as the month and the quarter wind down. U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week include:
While sales grew at Family Dollar, stores that target affluent or higher-income shoppers saw flat or negative growth. This all points to one thing: customers are seeking out bargains wherever they can to offset rising prices in other areas of their lives. This sounds like it should have happened last summer as the credit freeze was beginning, but with summer in full swing and gas prices at $4 a gallon levels, the reality of the dollar store is setting in for millions of Americans.
With the typical Family Dollar customer being the "mom who makes less than $30,000 per year," it's not hard to imagine all the dollar-type retailers starting to see increasing fortunes in the near future. Every worker in the U.S. who drives has easily seen their last performance increase fade away. In fact, many have actually experienced a large financial demotion due to high gas prices and food costs. It's hard to think of it that way for many, but that is what it is. Inflation and energy costs can wipe out that raise pretty fast, yes? With that in mind, you may want to venture into a dollar store soon. Most likely, you'll be pleased with the price levels you find on almost every product.
Discount-store operator Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported that its fiscal third-quarter profit rose as more consumers sought bargains on food and other items. And Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) said Tuesday its fiscal third-quarter profit rose as increased advertising of its educational programs attracted new students.
Family Dollar earnings for the quarter ended May 31 rose 7% from the year-ago period to $64.7 million, or 46 cents per share. Total revenue rose 2.9% to $1.7 billion, with same-store sales rising only 0.1%.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected a profit of 40 cents per share on revenue of $1.7 billion.
The company said a rise in the average amount customers spent per transaction helped offset lower store traffic, and that cost and inventory controls also benefited results.
Family Dollar raised its fiscal fourth-quarter guidance by a penny.
Shares rose $2.81 to $23.10 in morning trading. The share price is up 16.9% year to date.
Given that it's the end of the quarter, as well as the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday, next week looks to be pretty quiet as far as earnings go. But there are a few things of note.
Tax preparation company H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results Monday after market close. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect the company to report net income of $2.03 per share on revenue of $2.5 billion. That's an increase of more than 10% over EPS a year ago. H&R Block has tended to fall short of estimates recently, and rival Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) missed its EPS estimates earlier this month. Still, analysts recommend buying HRB. Shares have risen 12.1% year to date, and the long-term EPS growth forecast is 11.7%.
Alcoholic beverage maker and distributor Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter results Tuesday morning. Analysts are looking for earnings of 31 cents per share, up 32.3% from the same period of the previous year, on revenue of $906.1 million. Constellation has tended toward positive surprises recently, by 8 cents, or 33.8%, in the previous quarter. However, analysts recommend holding STZ and have for more than 90 days., even though the long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.3%. Although shares have risen 9.0% in the past three months, they are down 16.8% year to date.
Phoenix-based education company Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results late Tuesday. Analysts on average are expecting the company to report net income of 78 cents per share -- the same as in the year ago period -- on revenue of $806.9 million. When it comes to meeting expectations, lately Apollo has a mixed record -- it fell short by 11 cents, or more than 20%, in the previous quarter. Analysts recommend buying APOL and have for more than 90 days. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%. Though shares have risen 4.2% in the past three months, they are down 31.6% year to date.
Other companies reporting quarterly results on Tuesday included the following:
Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ): Third-quarter profit rose 11 percent, lifted by strong liquor sales, a growth in North American wine business, and acquisition of Svedka vodka. Profit for the quarter ended November 30 rose to $119.6 million, or 55 cents a share, from $107.8 million, or 45 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected 55 cents per share on revenue of $1.04 billion. However, Constellation lowered its full-year profit outlook, in part due to costs from its recent acquisition of Fortune Brands Inc.
Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE: AYI): Fiscal 2008 first-quarter earnings fell 7 percent, as a restructuring charge offset higher pricing and increased sales. The company earned $31.1 million, or 72 cents per share, compared with $33.6 million, or 77 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts had expected profit of 82 cents per share on revenue of $500.6 million, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial. Revenue increased 7% to $508.9 million, from $477.6 million a year ago. The special charge was related to planned actions to streamline operations as a result of the spin-off of Zep Inc.
Mosaic(NYSE:MOS) volatility Elevated as shares close at record high into EPS. MOS, a producer & marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, will report Q2 EPS on January 9th. MOS closed at $97.71. MOS January option implied volatility of 69 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Family Dollar(NYSE:FDO) volatility Up as shares at seven-year low into EPS. FDO, an operator of 6,400 stores, will report Q1 EPS on January 8th. FDO January option implied volatility of 57 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Bear downgraded shares of Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC) to Peer Perform from Outperform based on lack of visibility, execution issues, softer consumer environment, potential pricing disruptions, and product cycle concerns.
Merrill downgraded shares of Wells Fargo and Company (NYSE: WFC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect higher credit losses and valuation and KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) to Sell from Neutral to reflect the company's "weak" revenue growth.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Capital (ACAS), Doral Financial (DRL), E-Trade Financial (ETFC) and Family Dollar (FDO) were today's noteworthy downgrade:
Jefferies downgraded shares of American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS) to Hold from Buy citing the slowing M&A market and risk characteristics of the company.
Soleil downgraded Doral Financial (NYSE: DRL) to Sell from Hold, on the belief that the recent reverse stock split will increase short-selling activity and discourage speculative buying.
E-Trade Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) was cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS, citing deteriorating trends in the credit/mortgage markets, lack of near-term catalysts; the firm does not see an M&A deal occurring near-term.
Goldman downgraded Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) to Neutral from Buy, citing weakness in the low-end consumer and increased pressure from Wal-Mart (WMT)...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Wachovia downgraded Tween Brands (NYSE: TWB) to Market Perform from Outperform.
Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Deutsche Bank cut Pearson (NYSE: PSO) to Hold from Buy.
Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) has settled shareholder lawsuits relating to the backdating of stock options issued to executives at the company. Under the terms of the settlement, Chairman and Chief Executive
Howard Levine, President and Chief Operating Officer
R. James Kelly, board member
George Mahoney and executive
C. Martin Sowers will give up a total of 210,000 stock options.
The company will also institute corporate governance reforms including the adoption of a majority-vote policy for uncontested elections of directors and the election of two additional independent directors.
Here's what bothers me: The company will be taking a charge of $5.7 million related to the settlement, including $3.5 million to cover the attorney's fees of the shareholders who brought the lawsuits.
This is my question: Given that the company clearly had ineffective internal controls that allowed top executives to receive backdated stock options, why should the company's shareholders have to pick up the tab for the legal fees? CEO Howard Levine made more than $3.1 million last year. Since he and other executives and directors were the ones responsible for options backdating, why shouldn't they pay legal fees?
Even if the national headlines weren't already providing enough focus on the economy, plenty of economic data is due out as the month and the quarter wind down. U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week include:
Discount-store operator 
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