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Millions of jobs? How about a million new farmers?

Barack Obama is tasking his new economic team with figuring out how to create 2.5 million new jobs in his first two years in office. As Peter Cohan commented, much of this new work will likely involve construction: building (and rebuilding) roads, bridges, schools, and wind farms, among other infrastructure-focused initiatives.

I was struck with how this news coincided with news that prices were dropping in American commodity crops -- wheat, corn and soybeans. As I was mulling this over I was chatting with a friend who's on the board of my city's farmer's market. The vendors reported that what they desperately needed was help: workers who understood their products to help sell them in the many local markets, and most of all, more farmers to grow produce and make dairy products and preserves, more farmers to raise and cure meats. And I thought of Michael Pollan, and his call for the President-Elect to encourage millions more Americans to become farmers.

Why not combine these great ideas?

Continue reading Millions of jobs? How about a million new farmers?

In farms, as on Wall Street, prices drop

Farmers whose families have been working the land for generations should be called in to advise new Wall Street traders every year. Because in farm life is the hardscrabble reality of boom-and-bust cycles. When prices went sky-high for wheat, corn and soybeans over the past years, you did not see growers spending their wealth on fast pickup trucks and fancy overalls; no, they kept telling reporters and economists that this wasn't going to last.

They were right. Wheat, which had hovered for years around $4 a bushel, had risen to $10 and is now flattening at $5; less than the current cost in fuel, seed and fertilizer to grow it. Farmers like Jimmy Wayne Kinder, who held back their wheat hoping to sell at the top of the market, are "kicking" themselves, and demonstrating that they, too, have an emotional connection to their holdings and have trouble letting go even in the face of overwhelming evidence that it's time to sell. As the prices fell, farmers waited for a rebound that never came.

Farmland was hot, too, with speculative buyers purchasing Midwest real estate for prices nearing $1,000 an acre, the record set in the 1970s. Now they're back around $500 and farmers are recalling lessons the traders never have time to learn: patience. If automakers, mortgage lenders, and Wall Street firms could learn this lesson; scrimping and saving in the down economies but not behaving like kings in the boom times; perhaps bailouts wouldn't be required.

It's interesting, too, that the article doesn't mention another reality of the farmers' market forces; as demand for conventionally-grown wheat, corn and soy drops, demand for organically- and sustainably-grown meats, produce and grains is rising. I plan to stand in line at 9 a.m. Sunday morning with my three boys for the chance at paying $60 for an heirloom turkey raised by a farmer I know; I've cut out breakfast cereal and alcohol from my budget so I can pay more at the farmer's market. Perhaps the American economy isn't collapsing, but returning back to a more sensible place; where friendly, interdependent, local, sustainable economies thrive and the global economy is a distant memory.

Closing Bell: Dow, S&P up, although markets remain mixed with no "New Deal" yet

Today was all about financial bailout packages being on and off, and on and off, and on and off. Financial stocks were most of the news, but you've heard enough about that you will only hear about non-financial companies today. Q2 GDP was revised lower than original projections, but that number is older than dirt now. The funny thing today was that they started ringing the closing bell on NYSE a minute early on accident.

Below are the unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11,160.49 +138.43 +1.26%
S&P500 1,214.56 +5.38 +0.44%
NASDAQ 2,185.56 -1.01 -0.05%
10YR T-Note 3.827% (-0.035%)
TOP ANALYST CALLS
52-Week Lows

KB Home (NYSE: KBH) posted really ugly numbers with its losses growing four-fold and sales down over 50%. Yet somehow, traders are hoping a bailout will drive the future. Shares were actually up 1.2% at $21.42 immediately before the close.

Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) was downgraded across the board after its earnings disappointment. Shares were down 26%, or $21.50, right before today's close.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) was crushed on R-I-M's disappointing numbers. Shares hit a new 52-week low and were down 10.4% at $9.64 in the final minutes of the day.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) was down over 7% in today's final minutes at $146.57. An analyst downgrade from RBC and a cautious sector call from Citi is to blame. The concern here is easy. Farmers are having their credit cut and they can't afford to pay endless increases in agriculture prices.

Economist says corn should be on your table, not in your gas tank

Sometimes during a crisis the United States rushes toward a solution, only to find that the action was not only not a panacea, it was, in fact, ill-conceived and harmful.

The late British Prime Minister Winston Churchill alluded to this when he noted that, "In the end, America will do the right thing . . . after she's exhausted all other possibilities."

That may very well be the case with corn-based ethanol.

Initially heralded as a renewable fuel that reduces foreign oil imports, it now appears that a powerful coalition is building against corn-based ethanol -- a problematic energy source, in economist Glen Langan's interpretation.

A ' tax dollar not well spent'

The U.S. Government (which means you, the taxpayer) heavily subsidies ethanol from corn production via payments to farmers, Langan said. "The tax dollar is not well spent, either from an environmental standpoint or an energy policy standpoint," he said.

Continue reading Economist says corn should be on your table, not in your gas tank

Option update: Fertilizer companies rally on rising grain prices

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) volatility is flat as AGU at record high on strong fertilizer demand. AGU, an agricultural retailer and fertilizer producer, closed at $54.38. AGU over all option implied volatility of 39 is near its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional risk.

Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA) volatility is flat; TRA is near record on demand for nitrogen. TRA, an international producer of nitrogen products for industry and agriculture, closed at $31.26. TRA is expected to report EPS on 10/25. TRA over all option implied volatility of 52 is near its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional risk.

Option update provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Clouds for sale! Chinese businesses (and event planners) can play God

I come from a long line of farmers and ranchers, and I thought I'd heard of just about every way to inspire rain: Let's see, we have our praying, our rain dancing, and the always-useful "if I water the garden this evening it's sure to rain tonight." But in China, cloud seeding -- the practice of literally creating clouds, with or without rain -- is a booming business. And in the strange world-that-is-China, it's the government who's selling.

The odd thing is who the buyers are. When the "Office of Artificial Weather Inducement" was created, it was meant as a public service -- to wash away pollution, for example or (even stranger) to create clouds in the day or days before an event (it's planned for the 2008 Summer Olympics) to increase the likelihood the event itself will be clean, bright and sunny.

But now private individuals and businesses can buy clouds. Want a beautiful day for your wedding? It'll cost you somewhere between US$700 and $3,500.

As for the farmers? They don't have nearly enough money to buy clouds for their own purposes, and are left as the unintended victims of cloud seeding. If the rain falls mainly on Beijing -- there won't be any left for the rice.

And that's just not cool.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:46 AM

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