Dole Food Is Doing Right

The USDA's press secretary released a statement a few days ago that reiterated the Obama administration's commitment to farming. Despite an interview with Reuters that said otherwise, he wanted to make clear "that it is imperative that we keep the farm safety net strong so that the American people can continue to have access to safe, affordable and abundant food." It's interesting that despite all the changes we've seen in response to market volatility and emerging technologies, the farming industry has been this country's constant source of growth and opportunity.

Poor Tyson Foods (TSN). When I last wrote about the company back in May, I found that its shares were under pressure after a quarterly report was issued. Today, the same thing has occurred: investors were getting rid of the stock upon a fresh round of earnings data. My condolences to those who own this name in their portfolio.

The results weren't as bad as the selling would make it seem. For the fiscal third quarter, the business made 65 cents per share versus 35 cents per share in the year-ago period. According to Reuters, adjusted profit of 67 cents per share beat projections by nine pennies. The actual press release shows an expansion in operating cash flow: $1.1 billion was booked this time around over the last three quarters; $684 million was recorded in the comparable frame.

Monsanto's (NYSE: MON) stock has not cooperated since the June 15, 2009 Buy recommendation, as the shares have drifted about 10% lower.

Still, nothing has changed regarding MON's value proposition, hence I'm Reiterating my June 15, 2009 Buy recommendation, when shares were at $84.97. Higher-value-added, next-generation seeds will see substantial demand increases as the economic recovery progresses. Moreover, there is ample room to expand international sales, as emerging markets continue to develop their agriculture sectors and seek higher per acre yields.

Economic conservatives, many Republicans among them, often talk about letting the market determine which energy source is best, and the need for consumers and businesses to access low-cost energy sources.

Well, applying that standard then, it's time to end the $5 billion federal subsidy for U.S. corn farmers who produce ethanol.

The world's largest maker of farm equipment is due to report earnings on February 18 and the outlook is generally bleak. All of the major drivers behind Deere's (NYSE: DE) formidable business appear to be headed into a tailspin. Global agricultural commodity prices have come down significantly from peaks in 2007 and 2008, leaving farmers with less money to spend.

Farmers whose families have been working the land for generations should be called in to advise new Wall Street traders every year. Because in farm life is the hardscrabble reality of boom-and-bust cycles. When prices went sky-high for wheat, corn and soybeans over the past years, you did not see growers spending their wealth on fast pickup trucks and fancy overalls; no, they kept telling reporters and economists that this wasn't going to last.

They were right. Wheat, which had hovered for years around $4 a bushel, had risen to $10 and is now flattening at $5; less than the current cost in fuel, seed and fertilizer to grow it. Farmers like Jimmy Wayne Kinder, who held back their wheat hoping to sell at the top of the market, are "kicking" themselves, and demonstrating that they, too, have an emotional connection to their holdings and have trouble letting go even in the face of overwhelming evidence that it's time to sell. As the prices fell, farmers waited for a rebound that never came.

Farmland was hot, too, with speculative buyers purchasing Midwest real estate for prices nearing $1,000 an acre, the record set in the 1970s. Now they're back around $500 and farmers are recalling lessons the traders never have time to learn: patience. If automakers, mortgage lenders, and Wall Street firms could learn this lesson; scrimping and saving in the down economies but not behaving like kings in the boom times; perhaps bailouts wouldn't be required.

It's interesting, too, that the article doesn't mention another reality of the farmers' market forces; as demand for conventionally-grown wheat, corn and soy drops, demand for organically- and sustainably-grown meats, produce and grains is rising. I plan to stand in line at 9 a.m. Sunday morning with my three boys for the chance at paying $60 for an heirloom turkey raised by a farmer I know; I've cut out breakfast cereal and alcohol from my budget so I can pay more at the farmer's market. Perhaps the American economy isn't collapsing, but returning back to a more sensible place; where friendly, interdependent, local, sustainable economies thrive and the global economy is a distant memory.

In China, the cows are badly malnourished, and the routine spiking of dairy products with melamine and other illegal substances has been an "open secret" for years, says the Wall Street Journal today in a detailed look at the dairy system there. At the root of the problem is a dairy industry rife with farmers who have no idea how to feed or care for their cows, and even if they do, would always choose the cheapest possible option; whether feeding them with straw instead of corn, or (it seems obvious) allowing them enough room to graze naturally.

That melamine should be added to milk is only the most deadly in a string of unethical practices, starting with ill-treatment of animals and continuing through routine addition of "protein powder," a nutrient-booster made of animal parts, soy, and other ingredients. This powder was added, not to contribute to the health of the customer, but instead to fool inspectors.

It wasn't foolish enough; inspectors learned to identify the additions, as well as the "fresh-keeping liquid" of preservatives and antiobiotics. Were the farmers upset about their lack of ethics? No, they were just concerned the milk would be returned to them and be "wasted." Enter melamine.

Melamine, a scrap byproduct of many Chinese factories, mimics protein in lab tests. And it is extremely cheap.

Kudos to my colleague Elizabeth Harrow for pointing out that shares of Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) may be heading for a fall. As today's earnings report shows, her post was on the money.

Net income rose to $575.2 million, or $1.32 per share. Revenue soared 17% to $7.74 billion. Analysts had expected profit of $1.36 per share on revenue of $7.23 billion. Shares of the largest farm equipment maker had their biggest drop in two decades, according to Bloomberg.

What's killing Deere is rising raw material costs. The company's overall business is doing fine. Agricultural sales rose 35% in the quarter. Not surprisingly Commercial and Consumer revenue fell 1% and Construction and Forestry declined 7%.

One thing that can be said about the 2008 financial climate: this is not a halcyon time for investment banking professionals.

The credit market stress that has rocked U.S. and European markets this year has idled many investment bankers, syndicate and securities professionals and related financial specialists. Many have adjusted their career tracks, if they haven't already shifted to a new profession / line of work.

And what's one sector that may see an influx of displaced banking talent and/or represent a new, hot sector for dealmakers? Farming.

That's right: Farming. Two factors suggest farming may need, and attract, more talent: 1) the bullish trend for food given increased demand, and 2) the preference for locally-grown food, so says economist Glen Langan, whose specializations include agricultural economics.

"International food demand has improved food profit margins to the point where farming can compete for capital with other up-and-coming sectors," Langan said. "There's always a risk that food demand could pull back slightly on a global economic slowdown, but the long-term factors are and will remain bullish."

"The agriculture, mining and oil and gas businesses are booming globally, and mining firms have been plagued by a lack of available earth-moving and subsurface mining equipment," notes Paul Tracy.

To benefit from this trend, the editor of The StreetAuthority Market Advisor recommends Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers (NYSE: RBA), the "largest auctioneer of used industrial and agricultural equipment in the world."

"The prices of wheat, soybeans, corn and other basic food commodities are surging to new multi-year highs. There are two main drivers of this trend: rising consumption of agricultural commodities in emerging markets and increased consumption of crops for biofuels production.

"The developing world is also driving demand for petroleum products and other raw materials. A building boom in China, for example, is driving demand for steel, copper and aluminum used in building construction.

"One problem holding back these industries in recent years is a shortage of equipment. Mining firms have been plagued by a lack of available earth-moving and subsurface mining equipment. And agricultural products producers need tractors, combines and other equipment that are in short supply globally to efficiently run their farms.

During the roaring 1990s, undergraduates aspired to be entrepreneurs who would someday start their own company, or aspired to be investment bankers.

If the initial data points of the 21st century are predictive, undergraduates may want to shift their career goals to farming and agriculture.

Meat and dairy prices, already forced higher by rising food demand in emerging markets and sky-high energy prices, are likely to move higher still, due to flooding in the Midwest U.S., The Associated Press reported Monday.

Already high corn costs had compelled farmers to reduce animal production, resulting in higher prices for these products. Now, beef, poultry, pork, eggs, cheese and milk prices are expected to rise even more, as owners are forced to slaughter more livestock to cope with the higher costs of raising their animals, or as they go out of business.

Livestock producers' costs soar

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Monday the livestock segment is facing its biggest transformation -- and highest costs -- in more than 30 years. "Corn costs have doubled, from $4 a bushel to $8, while energy costs have gone through the roof. This will force many producers out of the market," Langan said. "Only the most efficient, modern producers will survive, with a few exceptions. That will easily push meat and poultry prices 20% higher or more from current levels. Dairy is harder to predict, because it's more localized, but there will be dairy price increases, too."

Corn rose to a record Monday on talk that heavy rain in the Midwest U.S. will cut supplies, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Corn for July delivery rose about 22.25 cents to $6.73 per bushel early Monday.

Prices also rose as traders sought corn as yet another hedge against inflation amid rising oil costs and a weak/falling U.S. dollar, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Demand for corn is also being bolstered by the use of the commodity as an ethanol source.

Oil fell $1.60 to $136.94 per barrel by midday Monday on profit taking, following its record two-day surge last week. Meanwhile, the dollar fell slightly against the euro and pound, to $1.5715 and $1.9756, respectively, but rose 1 yen to 106.03 versus Japan's yen.

The world is flat... for farming, too

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Monday those who find corn to be a curious inflation hedge are behind the curve.

A modicum of good economic news, at least on the commodities front: rice prices are headed for their biggest weekly drop in four years, on the prospect that exports from Japan and Pakistan will ease concerns that a global food shortage is worsening, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

As of mid-day Friday, rice had plunged 14% this week to $19.80 per 100 pounds.

Pakistan, the world's fifth-largest rice exporter, will allow shipment of 1 million metric tons because local needs have been met, Bloomberg News reported Friday. India may also ease its ban on rice exports. Rice is a staple for about 50% of the world's population.

Long-term, secular factors, including expanding middle classes (who consume more calories daily than lower-income groups) in Asia and Latin America, rising oil prices (which increase farming costs), have propelled a global rise in commodity, ingredient, and food prices.

Don't blame agricultural economists if they're feeling somewhat befuddled right now concerning wheat.

After two years of record price increases among grains -- including wheat -- and amid a global commodities price surge, and more than a month after predictions of wheat and bread shortages capable of producing social unrest, the U.S. Government is now predicting a global wheat production recovery for 2008.

U.S. wheat production to rise

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest estimate predicts that 2008 world wheat production will increase considerably, including an 8% increase in U.S. production to 656 million tons.

The USDA said good weather and record-high prices that have increased incentives to plant and farm effectively are the primary factors behind wheat's expected large harvest this year, Reuters reported Wednesday.

Wheat traded down 22 cents at $7.73 per bushel in Wednesday afternoon trading. Wheat has declined more than 20% since hitting a record-high $12.82 per bushel on March 12, 2008.

Analysts believe that Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has kept its hand on the plow. The general analyst consensus indicates solid expectations that the company will continue to perform at or above expectations. According to AOL Money and Finance, analysts are giving indications that Deere is a buy. In defiance of today's market pull back, Deere & Co. shares have gained one half percent as of this writing.

Media sources are openly optimistic about Deere & Co., though actual commentary is sorely lacking. Barron"s did go far enough to cite that some strategic execution failures of Deere competitors have played nicely for the company. With the weakened dollar giving solid momentum to Deere's international growth focus, and Deere equipment systems showing robust independent sales, for the time being the company appears to be a relatively safe harbor for longer term investment dollars.

Year to date return on Deere is just above a negative 3%, but the 5 year return on this company is over 300%. The best earnings estimates that I can lay a hand on hover around $1.75 per share.

Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger. He does not knowingly hold investment positions in the companies mentioned in this blog post.