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Earnings preview for Ford

Before the market opens tomorrow morning, American auto maker Ford Motor (NYSE: F) will be reporting its second quarter numbers. Wall Street is not looking for a great quarter from the company.

Analysts on average expect the struggling auto maker to post a loss for the quarter of 25 cents per share, and revenues totaling $34.6 billion. The last time that the company reported earnings was back on April 24 when it shocked Wall Street with a 5 cents a share profit versus consensus estimate for a loss of 16 cents for its first quarter.

This quarter has proven to be tough for the company, which recently posted pretty bad June sales figures. In fact, sales for June declined by a devastating 28% compared to the same period last year.

Continue reading Earnings preview for Ford

Apple shares rise on report Steve Jobs is free of cancer

Shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) have jumped after the New York Times reported that Chief Executive Steve Jobs has told associates that he is cancer free.

Concern about Jobs' health have kept Apple's shares depressed even as it faces soaring demand for the just released iPhone 3G. The company's reluctance to discuss the CEO's health during the recent earnings conference call only added to the speculation.

That's why the Times' report saying "in recent weeks, Mr. Jobs has reassured several people that he is doing well and that four years after a successful operation to treat a rare form of pancreatic cancer, he is cancer free" is so curious. Why didn't the company just say that when it released earnings? The question was bound to come up given how awful Jobs has looked during recent public appearances.

Of course, Apple's paranoia is legendary. It guards its secrets even more zealously than the CIA. Jobs decided that his health is no one's business even though as a CEO of a public company it is of material interest to shareholders. But the matter is still not closed entirely.

"People who are close to Mr. Jobs say that he had a surgical procedure this year to address a problem that was contributing to a loss of weight," the paper said, not offering any specifics. Investors concern is understandable since according to a patient group, 75% of all pancreatic cancer patients die within the first year of diagnosis.

Jobs has defied the odds. Let's hope that actor Patrick Swayze does as well.

Toyota whups GM in the first half of 2008

The folks in Detroit may be pleased to see Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) cutting its sales forecasts, but the pleasure is sure to be short lived. Despite its more modest outlook, Toyota leads General Motors (NYSE: GM) in global vehicle sales -- and its lead is only getting bigger.

According to a report on Reuters, GM sold 4.54 million vehicles worldwide in the first two quarters of 2008. This represents a 3% drop from the same period last year. Although sales in Europe, Latin America and Asia actually rose, the General couldn't overcome a whopping 15% decline in North America.

Toyota, on the other hand, saw a 2.2% increase in global sales, to 4.8 million units. This gives Toyota a lead in the range of a quarter million vehicles or more. And with its global sales growing, the lead is likely to widen, especially as Toyota switches over to producing more efficient cars in North America and fewer of the wasteful trucks that Americans loved so much until just a few weeks ago.

As Autoblog points out, the sales crown is important to both companies, although neither will admit it publicly. GM was the global sales king for 77 years, and the loss of that title will certainly hurt. Last year, the sales race ended essentially in a tie. But with these results, it looks like Toyota will be the champ in 2008 and, in all likelihood, beyond.

Bush: Wall Street got drunk!

In these times of uncertainty, it's good to know that we can look to our president as a beacon of wisdom, shining light and nuance on the tough economic challenges our country is facing.

The New York Times reports that Bush summed things up this way at a Republican fund raiser: "Wall Street got drunk. . . It got drunk, and now it's got a hangover. The question is, How long will it sober up and not try to do all these fancy financial instruments?""

That kind of trenchant insight must be the true benefit of a Harvard MBA. I'm tempted to make a reference to the fact that George "Choked on a Pretzel" Bush knows all about drunkenness and hangovers, but instead I'll keep this non-personal. Although, maybe I won't: How long between Bush's last beer and his first run for office? Maybe that's how long it'll take Wall Street to sober up. Could be a quick turnaround!

But with bailouts of Fannie and Freddie set to cost taxpayers $25 billion -- to say nothing of the Bear Stearns fiasco -- it looks like this decade-long round of Grey Goose was on us. Cheers!

When bad results boost stocks

It's officially a trend because it's happened more than three times -- a bad financial report leads to a spike in stock prices. (I posted here and here about this phenomenon with Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) respectively). Now, the New York Times reports that five banks lost billions, or saw their profits plunge, but their stock prices rose an average of 12.9% in the wake of those reports.

Why? The conventional wisdom suggests that investors expected them to do much worse and were pleasantly surprised. And this phenomenon is not confined to banks -- this morning, Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), which reported a penny less profit per share than the 10 cents analysts had expected, is up 3% in premarket, reportedly because it did not lower its guidance.

I am not convinced by conventional wisdom about why these stocks are up. My hunch is that there were many traders who sold short the stocks of these companies because they expected them to do worse than they actually did. When reported results beat expectations, investors bought the stocks, perhaps due to bottom fishing. These buyers caused the stocks to rise enough to trigger margin calls for those who were short. The shorts bought to satisfy those margin requirements, causing a buying panic. I wish I had data to test this hypothesis.

Continue reading When bad results boost stocks

Amazon (AMZN) second quarter earnings preview

The week got off to a shaky start in the wake of several earnings disappointments, thus a lot of attention will be paid to Amazon (NASDQ: AMZN) when it reports its second quarter numbers this afternoon after the market closes.

Analysts are looking to see Amazon show earnings of 26 cents per share, and revenue of $3.96 billion. The last time that the company reported earnings was April 23, when be itat analysts' estimates by 2 pennies, with a reported 34 cents per share for its first quarter.

It has definitely been a tough couple of months for retailers, but we could see some strength in Amazon as a result of changes it made during the quarter which allows users to shop the store from their cell phones via its new service TextBuyIt.

Continue reading Amazon (AMZN) second quarter earnings preview

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Costco warning kicks off the retail sale

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks will be killed today, and attentive investors can get them on the cheap.

Oh my, Costco (NASDAQ: COST) (Cramer's Take). I didn't expect that one. That's the best -- it's a shocker. I can't recall how many years it has been since I have seen the words "well below" and "Costco" together.

You can see how it happened: Costco held out. They didn't raise prices. Almost everyone else is raising prices and many are losing customers -- look at Safeway (NYSE: SWY) (Cramer's Take) or Supervalu (NYSE: SVU) (Cramer's Take). But two held out: Costco and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take).

When you lump in the ridiculous price hikes that Costco had to take in its gasoline business, you see that it simply wasn't making much money selling anything.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Costco warning kicks off the retail sale

Before the bell: COST, YHOO, WM, BA, PEP, PFE, GOOG ...

Stock futures were higher this morning, indicating stocks could have a positive start to the session as oil prices continued to decline, sinking below $127 a barrel. Weekly inventories numbers reported later today could have an impact on oil prices. Then there is continued optimism in the financial sector, which caused the rally Tuesday. Also, a bill aimed at helping the housing market will reach the House floor. But once again earnings will likely have investors' attention with Costco already giving a profit warning.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST)
shares are plunging over 8% in premarket trading after the wholesale retailer warned its August-ending quarter's profit would miss analyst estimates. This is most surprising as Costco had been one of the retailer that seemed to have benefited from consumers trying to save and buy lower-cost items. But Costco blamed the lower profit on rising energy costs, saying it will earn less than $1 per share.

Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM) late Tuesday reported second-quarter results, posting a loss of $3.3 billion, was worse than analysts had anticipated. Excluding one-time items, WaMu lost $3.34 per share, much wider than the expected loss of $1.05 per share. Piper Jaffray downgraded WM shares from Neutral to Sell and Friedman Billings halved its target price on the shares from $8 to $4. Shares are off nearly 3% in premarket trading.

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) also reported profits and sales that came up short of estimates. Second-quarter profit fell 18% to $131 million, or 9 cents per share. Analysts had projected earnings of 11 cents per share in the most recent quarter, according to Thomson Financial. Revenue grew 6% to $1.8 billion, or $1.35 billion after subtracting commissions, also below estimates. Yahoo! shares, however, are up about 3% in premarket trading since investors were relieved the performance wasn't as bad as many had feared after Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) reported last week and disappointed investors. Also, Yahoo didn't dramatically lower its revenue outlook for the remainder of the year.

Continue reading Before the bell: COST, YHOO, WM, BA, PEP, PFE, GOOG ...

Blaming Democrats for rising gas prices is ludicrous

Republicans and my colleague Aaron Katsman are trying to blame Democrat Barack Obama for rising gas prices. This is election-year politics at its worst.

For one thing, as the Washington Post and other independent observers note, drilling for more oil will do little to alleviate the pain U.S. drivers are feeling at the pump. The available supplies are probably not going to make much of a dent in our never-ending thirst for the black gold. Remember, the oil may not be as easy to get or cheap to process.

"Drilling off the coasts would increase U.S. oil production but have no short-term impact on gas prices," the Post says. "While some analysts disagree, an Energy Department report last year said production would not start until 2017 and have no 'significant' effect on prices or supplies until 2030."

An even more ridiculous idea floated by Republican John McCain is the so-called gas tax holiday, which has been roundly denounced by economists and Obama as a dangerous economic gimmick. Experts estimate that it would save the average consumer a whopping $30.

Continue reading Blaming Democrats for rising gas prices is ludicrous

DuPont did okay, but it's not on my list

DuPont (NYSE: DD), a competitor of Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), reported earnings for the second quarter today, and as Melly Alazraki stated in her Before the Bell article, agriculture helped drive results and earnings. Expectations were not just met, they were beaten by four pennies. The call was for $1.07 in earnings per share by analysts, and DuPont delivered, on an adjusted basis (excluding $0.07 related to a litigation benefit and a better tax rate), $1.11 per share. Last year at this time, DuPont reported $1.04 per share for the bottom line, giving the company about a 7% growth rate.

Shares are up as of this writing by a little under 2%. Not a bad increase considering DuPont is a stodgy Dow Jones component. But it's not exactly an exciting price rally, and it basically reflects my feelings for the earnings results. They were decent enough, but they weren't so overpoweringly good that I'd want to initiate a position in DuPont. And that's saying something, because the business is cheap on a forward-looking basis and from a dividend-yield point of view, in my opinion. DuPont thinks it can do somewhere between $3.45 and $3.55 per share for the fiscal year. With shares trading around $45, that gives the stock a decent valuation.

Yet, DuPont used cash for operations in its first six months, and capital expenditures have increased. Will the economy be kind to DuPont in the coming months? That's the wild card these days, the dreaded economy. Yes, DuPont may have done all right this quarter, but I don't need to buy it. I can look elsewhere for more compelling ideas.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Serious Money: More signs the market has bottomed

Some may view the sun as rising while others see it setting. Before you send me your rant that the pain has just begun and I am foolish to believe the recent market upswing is anything but a short term reprieve, let me share a few thoughts.

Today Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB) reported a loss of $1.30 a share compared to the average analysts' guess of $1.27 a share. WB lost almost $9 billion, is cutting the dividend and will layoff 6,400 employees. All bad news -- and still the the stock and the DJIA are up!

At the same time, oil is trading down about $4 a barrel during the busiest driving time of the year because people are actually conserving gas. The market is working. It should also be noted that after the Bush administration spent over seven and a half years stating various preconditions to establishing relations with Iran, last week they decided to send an envoy and start a dialog. It may be good or bad politics depending on your view -- but it is only good for the stabilization of oil prices.

Continue reading Serious Money: More signs the market has bottomed

Outrageous executive severance perks - talk about chutzpah!

Golden parachute Stockholders of publicly traded companies, as well as the general public, have recently become outraged with executive compensation and their hefty bonuses, especially in light of the mounting losses at some companies. It seems that no matter what happens or what they do, executives somehow always win. They win big during their employment, and sometimes even more as they retire. With all that money, you'd think that haggling over some perks in their package would be beneath them . . . but it isn't.

The recent outrageous perk award goes to Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) CFO Jeffrey Misner who asked for and was granted a free lifetime parking spot at Jacksonville International Airport. As long as the 54-year-old retiree lives within 200 miles of Jacksonville Airport, and providing Continental has operations at the airport, Misner will have a free parking place. Of course, that's just a perk that goes with a $2,997,000 retirement pay.

At the beginning of the year, many were shocked to hear that Countrywide Financial Corp. -- the poster child of the subprime mortgage meltdown, which has been bought by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) -- CEO Angelo Mozilo was going to receive a $36.4 million cash severance payments, $400,000 per year for consulting services, and perks including the use of a private airplane. He walked away from most of these after a public outcry. Don't feel bad though, he still left with at least $23.8 million.

It just doesn't cease to amaze me how some people have the nerve to ask for certain perks in addition to their very fine salaries and severance pays. Here are some more examples:

Continue reading Outrageous executive severance perks - talk about chutzpah!

UAL shares soar after boosting liquidty and posting better than expected results

Shares of UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA), the parent company of United Airlines, soared today after the Chicago-based company announced it had enhanced its liquidity by $1.2 billion. The company also posted second quarter results that were not as dismal as Wall Street had expected

The company will receive a payment of $600 million from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) related to the advance purchase of frequent flier miles. In addition, the level of reserves that United is required to maintain under its credit card processing agreement with Chase Paymentech has been reduced to $25 million, a move which will free up about $350 million in previously restricted cash. UAL expects the frequent flier payment to improve cash flow by about $200 million over the next two years.

"Combined with the previously announced approximately $550 million raised from new transactions in the second and third quarters, the company will have increased its total cash balance by $1.7 billion and continues to have more than $3 billion in unencumbered hard assets," UAL said in a press release.

Continue reading UAL shares soar after boosting liquidty and posting better than expected results

Does Wachovia's loss signal the end?

Wachovia (NYSE: WB) is out with numbers that were much worse than the Street had estimated. According to MarketWatch Wachovia "lost $8.86 billion, or $4.20 a share, in the second quarter, compared to a profit of $2.34 billion, or $1.20 a share, a year ago. On an adjusted basis, it lost $1.27 a share; analysts polled by FactSet Research had expected a loss of 71 cents a share."

Yikes. A loss of $8.9 billion -- how is that even possible? The company also slashed its dividend to just 5 cents a share and is closing down its wholesale mortgage operations.

I guess the real question is barring a takeover, how long will it be till the whole bank gets shut down? Just think the loss is equal to a third of its entire market cap.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/22/08.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Shorts are not and should not be equal

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they're not just the opposite of longs -- they have the power to destroy companies.

Today will be riotously ugly. Today's a day where you could take down a Capital One (NYSE: COF) (Cramer's Take) or a Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) -- some bad credit card exposure there -- off of American Express (NYSE: AXP) (Cramer's Take). You can bang down Nat City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) into oblivionville off of it and hammer Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) to the point where you could hear the rumors fly of capital needs. Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take), merciless Freddie, right at ya. Today's the day when the uptick rule would be the only friend to the notion of owning stocks without fear every minute, fear that they will break your stock. Today's the day that the uptick rule can save Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) from $14 or lower. Today's why we need it.

Yet, every time I do a piece that talks about the need to reinstate the uptick rule or enforce the naked short laws, I am immediately greeted with the same nonsense: why should the longs get protection the shorts shouldn't? In fact, other than the usual gang of two -- Patrick Byrne and David Patch -- I don't get any positive feedback on these pieces like the one I did last night on "Mad Money."

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Shorts are not and should not be equal

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+29.8811,632.38
NASDAQ+21.922,325.88
S&P 500+5.191,282.19

Last updated: July 24, 2008: 03:10 AM

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