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Week in Preview: GDP, FOMC Meeting, Housing Data and Lots of Earnings

earnings expectationsWith earnings season in full swing, the FOMC meeting on interest rates, the GDP estimate, and housing numbers due out, the coming week is shaping up to be a busy one. So here's a peek at what's on the economic calendar.

Monday

Quarterly reports from American Express (AXP) and McDonald's (MCD) will highlight Monday. Amgen (AMGN), CSX (CSX), Halliburton (HAL) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are also expected to report strong earnings results.

Continue reading Week in Preview: GDP, FOMC Meeting, Housing Data and Lots of Earnings

Tell-Tale Stat: Fed Paid $78.4 Billion to U.S. Treasury in 2010

One economic data point that sort of slipped under the radar recently concerned the U.S. Federal Reserve's $78.4 billion payment to the U.S. Treasury in 2010, up about 65% from $47.4 billion in 2009.

And the reason for the revenue surge? Experienced investors or others who have reviewed the Fed's report will realize that much of it stems from income from the Fed's purchase of mortgage securities and Treasury securities in connection with the quantitative easing, part 2 program, or QE2.

Under QE2, the Fed will purchase up to $600 billion in assets from November 2010 to June 2011 -- this coming after the Fed purchased $1.7 trillion in assets through March 2010.

Continue reading Tell-Tale Stat: Fed Paid $78.4 Billion to U.S. Treasury in 2010

Are You a Stock Market Bull or Bear?

Is the glass half full of half empty? This is a perennial debate.

Those who are bearish say the market has gone too far to the upside; investors are shrugging off the latest debt scare in Europe; we have rising global interest rates; there's a potential meltdown in the municipal bond market; earnings may disappoint; the VIX is too low; and on and on we go.

For the bulls, the S&P 500 has traded above its 50-day moving average for 94 consecutive sessions, according to Birinyi Associates. This is the first time this has happened in five years. Many analysts consider stock valuations to be at relatively low levels. The glass for them is still half full.

Continue reading Are You a Stock Market Bull or Bear?

U.S. Stock Futures Up After Portuguese Government Debt Auction

U.S. stock futures are higher this morning as investors await the Federal Reserve's report on present economic conditions. Portuguese government debt sold bonds worth €1.25 billion ($1.62 billion) in an auction. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 56 points to 11,672.00 and S&P 500 futures gained 6.90 points to 1,277.30. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 11.75 points to 2,297.25.

U.S. stocks closed higher yesterday, with the blue-chip Dow index gaining 34.43 points, or 0.30%.

U.S. data on December import prices will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed is scheduled to release its Beige Book on present economic conditions at 2 p.m. ET.

Continue reading U.S. Stock Futures Up After Portuguese Government Debt Auction

Fed Members Differ on Economic Outlook

The Federal Reserve has embarked on a controversial new program of buying $600 billion of U.S. Treasuries to keep interest rates low and spur the economy.

There is some disagreement among some members of the Fed concerning the risks of this new program. Some fear that the economy is growing too rapidly, fueling unwanted levels of inflation, as reported by CNNMoney.

Continue reading Fed Members Differ on Economic Outlook

Analysts Forecast Higher Gold Prices in 2011

gold pricesThe trends that drove gold prices higher in 2010 are still in place. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is buying $600 billion in treasuries in an attempt to keep interest rates low. Low interest rates encourage higher gold prices.

In Europe, the situation is still unstable. The European Central Bank (ECB) has stepped up its purchases of member nations' bonds. Spain is still on the table as a country teetering on verge of a bailout. Until the European mess is settled, gold remains a surrogate currency.

Continue reading Analysts Forecast Higher Gold Prices in 2011

A Bernanke Rally? S&P 500 Up 17% Since QE2 Announced

The verdict on the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, including part 2, or QE2, will not be rendered for years. It may be longer, given the many areas of financial and economic policy the program has touched.

Anyone who says they definitively and incontrovertibly know QE2's long-term impact is not being genuine: many more data points have to occur to judge, for example, how QE2 affected banker lending psychology, let alone its impact on the U.S. economy.

That said, we can glean clues and insights by looking at current conditions, and one short-term data point reveals that since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke disclosed the implementation of QE2 on August 27, the S&P 500 is up 17%, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Continue reading A Bernanke Rally? S&P 500 Up 17% Since QE2 Announced

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Surprises No One

The news is out, the Federal Reserve decided to leave its key interest rate and the size of its bond purchase program unchanged. This move should surprise very few, with the tepid reaction from investors serving as evidence. The Fed funds rate remains in its all-time low range of 0 to 0.25%, its perch since December 2008. The move was not unanimous, as Thomas Hoenig, President of the Kansas City Fed, dissented with a warning that a large stimulus could lead to inflationary expectations that could in turn choke off any economic recovery.

Continue reading Fed Holds Rates Steady, Surprises No One

Fed's QE2 is a Bridge to Normal Credit Markets

To say that the financial crisis era has been riddled with half-truths, distortions, and outright falsehoods regarding the unprecedented public policies designed to maintain stable, liquid credit markets and help stimulate the U.S. economy, would be an understatement. Moreover, investors need to disabuse themselves of them if they hope to make informed, balanced, and prudent investment decisions.

One such misnomer concerns the categorization of quantitative easing.

As U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke took pains to clarify Sunday, during his CBS '60 Minutes' interview, the Fed is most certainly not 'printing money.'

A monetary policy of printing money would involve adding money to the financial system that chases the same amount of goods. That can and typically does lead to higher inflation.

Continue reading Fed's QE2 is a Bridge to Normal Credit Markets

JPMorgan Buys 50% of London Copper Stocks

Over the past couple of weeks, a mystery trader purchased more than 50% of all the copper stocks on the London Metals Exchange, valued at over $1 billion. There were rumors that whoever it was is trying to corner the copper market.

As it happens the mystery bank is JPMorgan Chase (JPM), The Wall Street Journal reported, citing The London Daily Telegraph. The bank bought some of the copper for clients. But the bank owns a large chunk, estimated at 175,000 metric tons.

Continue reading JPMorgan Buys 50% of London Copper Stocks

JPMorgan and GE Got Massive Fed Loans While Their CEOs Sat on NY Fed Board

Slowly, piece by piece, the inside details of what happened during the financial meltdown are coming to light. The latest disclosure is that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and General Electric (GE) CEO Jeffrey Immelt were on the New York Federal Reserve Board in 2008, when their institutions got enormous loans, as reported by the New York Times.

This little story tells you just how the insiders do their wheeling and dealing. On Sept. 15, JPMorgan Chase received a $3 billion loan from the Fed. On 12 occasions in October and November 2008, GE issued short term IOUs. The Fed purchased $16 billion of them.

Continue reading JPMorgan and GE Got Massive Fed Loans While Their CEOs Sat on NY Fed Board

Bernanke on 60 Minutes: We Could Have QE3

Ben BernankeFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will appear on 60 Minutes this Sunday to defend his controversial stimulus package, dubbed QE2, of buying $600 billion of Treasury securities.

In the CBS interview, Bernanke explains his intentions with QE2 and defends the notion that this stimulus will not lead to inflation. He also told CBS that he is not ruling out the purchase of more securities.

Continue reading Bernanke on 60 Minutes: We Could Have QE3

Banks Flooded the Fed with Junk in Exchange for Loans

The U.S. Federal Reserve was forced to disclose its transactions during the financial meltdown. Some 23,000 transactions were published.

During the crisis, the Fed set up 10 different programs to funnel money to governments, banks, financial institutions, hedge funds and private corporations. One such program was called the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). Under the program, dealers could pledge securities or bonds in exchange for Fed loans.

Continue reading Banks Flooded the Fed with Junk in Exchange for Loans

Flashback to the Crash: Banks Borrow $155.8 Billion

Wall StreetFear gripped Wall Street on September 29, 2008, when the U.S. House of Representatives failed to pass the bailout package. On that day alone, banks borrowed a record $155.8 billion.

The Fed had set up a lending facility called the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to lend money to banks. As the crisis spread, borrowing increased almost daily. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) lists day-by-day borrowings:

Continue reading Flashback to the Crash: Banks Borrow $155.8 Billion

Week in Preview: Unemployment Rate, Fed's Beige Book, Canadian Banks

earnings expectationsBlack Friday has come and gone and the holiday shopping season is off and running. In addition to keeping on eye on how retailers are doing, there will be plenty of other economic data for analysts and investors to peruse on this week.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Unemployment Rate, Fed's Beige Book, Canadian Banks

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DJIA-74.9212,454.83
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S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 07:06 AM

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