Analyst Upgrades

• Brinker (EAT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Starbucks (SBUX) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Paccar (PCAR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• CA Technologies (CA) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• PPL Corp. (PPL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• ConocoPhillips (COP) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• First Defiance (FDEF) to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• MasTec (MTZ) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Amdocs (DOX) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

As stocks continue to drift lower and lower, the risk/reward bias is starting to shift to the long side. Make no mistake, there are still tremendous risks in this market, but for risk-embracing, long-term investors it may be time to start wading back into equities.

If you want to bet on a second half rebound and are looking to get plenty of upside potential in return, the place to look is in the private-equity complex. In particular, Fortress Investment Group (FIG), The Blackstone Group (BX) and Apollo Investment Corp. (AINV) will give you plenty of bang for your buck if the current downtrend reverses itself.

Analyst Upgrades

• Canaccord upgraded BHP Billiton (BHP) to buy from hold. The firm expects BHP Billiton to emerge from the downturn with better operating margins and less dependence on an economic recovery. The firm also upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to buy from neutral but expects BHP Billiton to outperform near-term.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Raymond James (RJF) to market perform from underperform after raising estimates to reflect higher revenues and lower loan loss provisioning. Despite the upgrade, the firm remains cautious on the stock.
• Goldman upgraded InterActiveCorp (IACI) to buy from neutral. The firm upgraded shares based on improved momentum for its Search and ServiceMagic units and its belief that Ask.com may be an acquisition target. The firm believes Microsoft (MSFT) could be a logical acquirer for the unit once it receives approval for the Yahoo! (YHOO) partnership.
• Baidu.com (BIDU) was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Symantec (SYMC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) was upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Buy from Hold and added the stock to its Top Picks Live list following the company's investor day. Citi believes American Express' credit trends are improving and raised its price target on shares to $36 from $28.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Gardner Denver (NYSE: GDI) to Buy from Neutral after meeting with management to reflect expectations for EPS growth in 2010 and valuation. The firm has a $38 target on the stock.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) to Buy from Underperform and raised its target to $87 from $49 based on strong copper fundamentals.
• Cbeyond (NASDAQ: CBEY) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• Gibraltar Industries (NASDAQ: ROCK) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• Fortress (NYSE: FIG) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Not long ago, the private equity firm, Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE: FIG), appeared to be in deep trouble. But things are looking better now, as the stock price has gone from $1 to $4.65 this year.

In fact, Fortress is now pulling the trigger on some deals. Just this week, the firm teamed up with Crestview Partners LP and Lightyear Capital LLC to invest $450 million in First Southern Bancorp (Lightyear is operated by Donald Marron, who was the former chief of PaineWebber Group).

Who's going to pay for the massive budget deficits? Well, how about the rich folks?

This is certainly a theme in President Barack Obama's 2010 budget. Thus, if you are an alternative asset manager – that is, you operate a private equity firm or hedge fund -- then you may have to pay some big-time taxes. In fact, the bite could add up to $24 billion over the next nine years.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) swung to a Q3 loss as same-store sales fell, and it lowered its outlook.
• Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) forecast lower profits due to weaker glass sales but has a strong cash position.
• Fortress Investment Group (NYSE: FIG) swung to a Q3 loss as investors requested redemptions.
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) profit beat estimates despite the decline in sales, and it reaffirmed its outlook.
• HJ Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) strong Q2 results topped expectations but didn't impress the market.
• Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) reported solid results and offered modest growth for the next quarter.
• Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD) Q3 profits and same-store sales fell and it lowered its guidance.
• Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) fell short of Q3 expectations and said it would reduce capital expenditures in 2009.
• Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) fell short of Q2 expectations and lowered its full-year guidance.
• PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) reaffirmed its previously announced full-year earnings guidance.
• Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) said Q3 earnings and revenue grew sharply, beating expectations.
• Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) posted weak Q3 numbers and discontinued its share buyback activity.
• Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) was downgraded on the belief that consensus estimates may be too high.

Analyst upgrades:

• PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Fortress (NYSE: FIG) was upgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Sell.
• Prudential (NYSE: PUK) was lifted to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) to Outperform from Market Perform and added shares to their Best Ideas List on valuation as they see an attractive risk/reward at current levels.
• UBS upgraded ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the company remains a market leader.
• Oppenheimer raised Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ: SGEN) to Outperform from Perform on valuation following the recent weakness as they expect positive clinical news flow beginning in December.

• UBS downgraded U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) to Sell from Buy and lowered its target to $30 from $60 citing deteriorating U.S. conditions and concerns about the company's high fixed costs in a falling steel price environment.
• Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) was lowered to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website

Analyst upgrades:

• Merrill upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Neutral from Underperform to reflect the company's pipeline momentum and lack of negative catalysts.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as they believe DB should trade at a higher multiple.
• Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) was raised at HSBC to Overweight from Neutral.
• American International (NYSE: AIG) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

• Merrill cut Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) to Underperform from Neutral as the firm sees better opportunities elsewhere in the sector.
  
• Merriman downgraded Rackable Systems (NASDAQ: RACK) to Neutral from Buy following the company's mixed Q2 results to reflect its customer concentration and fluctuating margins.
• Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Underweight from Neutral.
  
• Fortress (NYSE: FIG) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup.

• UBS believes Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has a competitive advantage and their checks indicate new Macs, new iPhone colors and potentially new iPods may come early on in the second half of 2008. The firm initiated shares with a Buy rating and $195 target. UBS also initiated Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) at Neutral.
• KeyBanc initiated Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) with an Underweight rating and $25 target based on slowing core growth at Bed Bath and likely margin erosion from the ramp in growth at Christmas Tree Shops and buybuy Baby.
• Infineon (NYSE: IFX) was initiated with a Buy rating at Deutsche Bank.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Barnes & Noble Inc (NYSE: BKS) is considering a bid for rival bookseller Borders Group Inc (NYSE: BGP), the Wall Street Journal reported, a move which would allow Barnes & Noble to improve profits and reduce costs. Antitrust issues could prevent a deal.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that Carl Icahn's effort to remove Yahoo! Inc's (NASDAQ: YHOO) board has picked up new supporters, including T. Boone Pickens, who acquired a 0.75% stake. Some Yahoo shareholders believe it is still too early to predict whether Icahn will be able to carry July 3's shareholder vote.
• A Financial Times investigation discovered that Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) incorrectly awarded top ratings to billions of dollars to debt products due to an error in its computer models. Moody's said it is in the process of "conducting a thorough review" of the rating of the constant proportion debt obligations, which should have been up to four notches lower.

• According to the people briefed on the matter, the New York Times reported that the buyout of Penn National Gaming Inc (NASDAQ: PENN) by Fortress Investment Group (FIG) and Centerbridge Parters may involve revised terms. The sources said the negotiations may "delay or even imperil" the deal.