In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.
Be honest -- when was the last time you dropped off a roll of film to be developed? If your response dates back to the 1990s, the unpleasant fate of Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: EK) probably doesn't need too much explaining. The way we take pictures and use paper has shifted drastically in the past decade, and Eastman has struggled in its attempts to keep up (with more "struggling" than "keeping up" involved, nearly every step of the way).
What went wrong? At No. 11 on our list of SPX dawdlers, EK shed 80% of its value during from June 30, 1998 through June 30, 2008. The stock tapped an all-time high near $95 in early 1997; during the decade in question, the shares peaked at $88.94 in July 1998. It was to be the first in a long series of lower highs for EK as it cascaded down the charts.
Eastman Kodak entered 1998 with an aggressive turnaround plan. The elimination of 20% of EK's payroll was meant to help stem the tide of diminishing profits and market share for the one-time leviathan of photography; the company was floundering in the face of heightened competition from the likes of Fuji. EK also unloaded a chain of retail stores and non-core businesses, but a gradual increase in profits couldn't mask disappointing sales growth.
Viacom Inc.'s (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios, which has scored big at the box office with "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" and "Iron Man," and Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE: TWX) Warner Bros, which is behind "Speed Racer," can't win them all. For example, take "The Love Guru" and "Get Smart," which open this weekend.
Reviews for Paramount's "The Love Guru, which stars Mike Myers, are not just scathing, they are acidic. A.O. Scott of the New York Times said, "To say that the movie is not funny is merely to affirm the obvious... No, `The Love Guru' is downright antifunny, an experience that makes you wonder if you will ever laugh again." At the Los Angeles Times, Jan Stewart argued that the movie was filled with "low blows and elephantine misfires." Mike LaSalle of the San Francisco Chronicle is slightly kinder saying, "There are whole sections when watching the movie is like being locked in the mind of a 10-year-old boy."
Critics weren't much kinder to Warner Bros.' "Get Smart," a remake of the popular TV comedy from the 1960s. Newsweek's David Ansen dismissed it as distressingly generic, comments echoed by Claudia Puig of USA Today. To be sure, the movie has its fans, including Roger Ebert, who said Steve Carrell makes an "infectious Maxwell Smart."
Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.
5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.
5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros. Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
Rochester, New York-based Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) was founded in 1892, and is well known for its wide range of photographic film products; it remains to this day the largest supplier of photographic films in the world. The company played a vital role in the invention and development of the motion picture industry, setting the standard of 35 mm film.
But times change. In 1999, Kodak entered into the consumer inkjet photo printers market in a joint venture with manufacturer Lexmark (NYSE: LXK). In 2004, Kodak announced it would stop producing traditional film cameras, beginning a multiyear struggle to refocus on digital photography and printing. Some of the results of that effort include the Kodak Smart Picture Frame, into which digital files are downloadable via a network connection. The Kodak Gallery is a website where users can upload photos into albums, print them out, and create mouse pads, calendars, and the like. And in 2006 Kodak announced that Flextronics (NASDAQ: FLEX) would manufacture and help design its digital cameras. Kodak also has long-term plans to sell ink jet printers and flat-panel displays.
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) executives were probably ecstatic last night after the drama "No Country for Old Men," which its Miramax unit co-produced, won the best picture Oscar. Today, they must be depressed because a record-low audience witnessed the company's triumph.
Ratings for the Oscar telecast, broadcast on the company's ABC network, were probably the lowest of the decade, according to the New York Times. The telecast drew about 33% of people watching television, a steep decline from last year's 42%, the paper said.
This isn't a surprise. For one thing, as the paper notes, the leading movies weren't exactly crowd pleasers. Moreover, viewers got into the habit of not watching television thanks to the recent Hollywood writers' strike. Once media habits are established, they are hard to change. Perhaps, people have got enough on their minds with the faltering economy to watch overpaid celebrities pay homage to other overpaid celebrities.
Disney ad sales executives may be forced to give advertisers so-called make goods because of the ratings shortfall for failing to meet guarantees for viewership. ABC may be forced to give free advertising time on popular TV programs such as "Desperate Housewives" to appease angry advertisers. That may negate some of the benefit to the bottom line from "No Country's" Oscar triumph.
The sequel to the 2004 blockbuster, National Treasure, National Treasure: Book of Secrets had a monster weekend, with $45.5 million in sales. Nicolas Cage is once again the leading man in this movie, and in this thriller, Cage's character, Ben Gates, is in a struggle to clear the name of an ancestor that has been implicated in the murder of Abraham Lincoln's assassination.
If the first installment of this series is any indication, Disney could be seeing some pretty big numbers from this movie before it is all said and done. When National Treasure debuted in 2004 the movie raked in $35.1 million and ended up with a total of $173 million at the box office.
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) posted earnings per share of 29 cents after items, but on a normalized basis the company's earnings were 24 cents. Revenue was $11.68 billion. First Call estimates were for earnings of 24 cents on revenue of $11.36 billion.
As far as how this compares, it really seems like the results were better than expected. Adjusted Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization climbed 15% to $3.2 billion, reflecting double-digit increases in the Cable, Filmed Entertainment and Publishing segments, as well as a gain at the Networks segment. This growth was offset partly by a decline at AOL. Operating Income was up 29% to $2.1 billion.
Time Warner continued its aggressive share buyback. As of November 6, 2007, the company has repurchased approximately 119 million shares for approximately $2.2 billion since its $5 billion program was announced on August 1. At existing prices, the company expects to complete at least half of the program by the time the time it reports its 2007 full-year and fourth-quarter results.
NBC Universal Chief Executive Jeff Zucker made it clear at a conference yesterday that GE (NYSE: GE) had no interest in selling the media business. Referring to GE CEO Jeff Immelt, Zucker said, "He has said numerous times that NBCU is not for sale. It is not for sale after the Olympics." Some press reports have indicated that GE would take the big money from the sports event and then dump the business on some sucker.
It is odd that the head of a GE division should have to make this kind of comment at all. The head of the locomotive division probably wouldn't make comments about the future of his business. Meanwhile, NBC Universal can go on operating as usual whether Wall Street thinks it is for sale or not.
The argument for selling NBC is that the unit does not fit with the conglomerate's industrial and financial operations. That is true, but owning a network does mean tickets to the Super Bowl and the Oscars.
NBC is a $15 billion business with operating income running about $2.5 billion, making it a modest part of GE's overall earnings. Still, the business is about the size of CBS (NYSE: CBS), which has a market cap of $21 billion and debt of $7 billion.
For the $28 billion enterprise value of CBS, GE would sell NBC tomorrow.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor of 247wallst.com.
Are DVDs on their way out as a way to distribute films, specials, TV shows and other video content? Although the early-adopter crowd says yes, I have my doubts. The value added into DVDs these days far outweighs the relative complexity many consumers must confront to get downloadable video content onto their living room televisions.
Alternate audio tracks, digital surround and a plethora of extra features movie producers add to most DVDs are prized by almost every DVD fan I know. On the other hand, downloading a movie for free can be a bit of a process for the technically challenged as well as being a pain to get on that television. There are products like the Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Apple TV that takes care of this, but at a high cost. DVD players? $30 at a local retailer and you are ready to go.
The price of DVDs has continued to come down slowly but surely, which has to cause concern for movie studios who fear margins are being eroded at the same time movie downloads threaten to lower the revenue bar even further. In an age where DVD releases are meant to make up theater revenue letdowns, the dropping of DVD prices could be seen as a threat. But movie downloads? It's hard to find one solution offered by any company that even comes close to threatening the physical DVD as distribution medium for video content.
This summer was a very profitable one for box offices nationwide, with four movies grossing over $300M, and at least another nine grossing over $100M -- signaling in a big way the resurgence of the movie industry, which had been struggling for the last few years.
The four big $300M+ winners of the summer were Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) 'sSpider-Man 3, which grossed $336M in the U.S., Viacom, Inc (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount's Shrek the Third, which grossed $320M, Transformers, also from Paramount, which grossed $311M, and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)'s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which grossed $308M.
Three of the four were third installments of well established big-budget franchises, so their success is hardly shocking, but the Transformers success clearly marks the start of a new blockbuster franchise (the release date of the sequel has been announced -- June 26, 2009). The robot-action extravaganza, which was directed by Michael Bay, was definitely a surprise, as I remarked in my summer movie preview that Transformers "has flop written all over it... there cannot possibly be enough substance in a story about alien robots that transform into vehicles to make this a hit with the general public." I was wrong -- very wrong. The movie killed at the box office, grossing over $330M on a $150M budget, and prompting a re-release on IMAX, which opened last week.
e-card pwn -- I don't even open e-cards anymore since the spammers adopted them as a way of invading my PC, but someecards.com has caused me to change my mind. Instead of the usual meaningless phrases like 'Thinking of you', someecards carry relevant messages, such as
Courtesy hello -- I really enjoyed awkwardly waving at you
Graduation -- Congratulations on getting through the easiest part of your life
Business – Just getting on your radar because I may need something from you soon
Robot spy blimp – According to Lewis Page of The Register, the U.S. Army's $11 million order with Telford Aviation could be for the company's 30,000 cubic foot unmanned blimp, the Skybus 30K. I presume the spy blimp will be used to monitor football games and other sporting events for terrorists. You suppose the Army will offer naming rights to Goodyear (NYSE: GT)? Spiderpig hoax – Those millions of you that have seen Fox's (News Corp, NYSE: NWS) The Simpsons Movie will remember Homer's pet, Spiderpig. Today we learn from Offbeat Enough that Oli Young, who had promised to name his second child Spiderpig if 100,000 people joined his Facebook group, has reneged on this promise. Apparently, his wife is not even pregnant, and I'm pretty sure she wasn't consulted beforehand. Spiderpig is about the only name that doesn't appear in any of the baby name books I've seen.
Fishy Spas --Thanks to Boingboing.net for a story about an ancient middle-Eastern skin treatment that has become popular in China. There, those with skin ailments are immersing themselves in pools filled with Doctor Fish, a minnow-sized fish that feeds on the affected and dead skin, in essence nibbling the patient to health. Those with really serious cases might toss in a couple of piranhas to speed the process. How long before this becomes an American fad? Are you listening, Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL)? Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)?
Net income was $434 million, or 63 cents per share, compared with $437 million, or 61 cents, the New York-based company said in a press release. Revenue rose 13% to $3.19 billion. Excluding gains and charges, profit was 54 cents. Analysts had expected earnings of 50 cents on revenue of $3.07 billion, according to Thomson Financial.
Advertising revenue rose 6% to $1.15 billion while affiliate fees jumped 15% to $577 million. Though profit was hurt by higher costs, revenue from its cable channels rose 10 percent to $1.92 billion, helped by a gain on the sale of MTV Networks' investment in Russia and an impairment charge from Amp'd Mobile.
Strong box office receipts from its Dreamworks SKG films "Shrek the Third" and "Over the Hedge" helped push up revenue in the Filmed Entertainment business by 20% to $1.31 billion. David Jones, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co., told Bloomberg News that the unit outperformed his expectations by about $100 million.
Shares of Viacom are down more than 7% this year as investors continue to worry about who will succeed chairman Sumner Redstone who reportedly is feuding now with his daughter Shari.
"Revenue was better than expected because filmed entertainment outperformed by about $100 million or so,'' David Joyce, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, said in an interview. He has a "buy'' rating on the shares and doesn't own them.
At Comic-Con this year, the Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) announced its commitment to make all seven of the Chronicles of Narnia books into feature films, releasing one a year starting in May '08 with Prince Caspian. This decision follows the success of the adaptation of the first book -- The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe -- which grossed almost $300 million.
This decision is not surprising, following the conclusion of Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, which has no immediate plans to continue. Disney is predictably looking for its next goldmine franchise, and what better to use than a seven book series which already had a successful start?
The only question is whether the quality of production will suffer in the sequels from such an ambitious filming schedule, and after Disney pulled off the Pirates trilogy with such dazzling effects, I doubt that will be a concern -- although the quality of the Pirates scripts did fade down the stretch. At least with these movies, the writers will have a classic source to guide them.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) CFO Keith Sherin defended his company's continued holding of NBC Universal and gave the media conglomerate a surprisingly high valuation of between $40 billion and $45 billion.
GE has been getting plenty of flack about holding on to NBC since it is not #1 or #2 in its market, as previous CEO Jack Welch would have wanted it to be. Sherin pointed out during a lunch meeting with me, my fellow blogger Jon Ogg and a few other writers that NBC is "priceless waterfront property." Sherin argued that Welch had picked up NBC from RCA at a relatively low price -- increasing its value from $3 billion to $10 billion. And in 2004, after forming NBC Universal with Vivendi Universal, the new entity was worth $32 billion. Sherin now estimates that NBC Universal is worth between $40 billion and $45 billion, although I am not sure I understand how he arrived at this figure.
Maybe at 39, I am too old and cynical to fall under the spell of Harry Potter. Maybe my nine-month-old son will one day become a fan of the teenage wizard. Until then, I shall avoid all Potter books and movies even though I am one of the few people on the planet to do so.
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, the latest chapter in the J.K. Rowling franchise, grossed $44.8 million yesterday, the biggest Wednesday ever, according to Reuters. That's good news, of course, for Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), the film's producer and distributor.
The movie even got a backhanded compliment from A.O. Scott of the New York Times who wrote; "Although Order of the Phoenix is not a great movie, it is a pretty good one, in part because it does not strain to overwhelm the audience with noise and sensation."
But investors shouldn't buy shares of the New York-based media company just because of one hit movie. Remember that blockbuster movies are extremely expensive to produce, though the power of Potter continues to amaze me.
Since 2001, the Potter saga movies have generated $3.5 billion in ticket sales. What they haven't done though, is reverse the decline in reading, the Times also notes.
There are some things beyond the powers of the greatest wizards.
In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.
Viacom Inc
This post is part of our 
Walt Disney Co
NBC Universal Chief Executive Jeff Zucker 
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General Electric Co. (NYSE: 
Big Losers: 15 large stocks that have plummeted
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Closing Bell: The meltdown that almost was . . . NCC, HIG, SAP, DNDN
