The FT says, "Fear is part of the answer. Investors haven't forgotten the emerging market currency devaluations of the 1990s and early 2000s. For them it's 'no thanks, too risky.'"
Investors already hold emerging market equities in their portfolios, and according to the FT, investors might feel that these equity positions suffice for currency exposure.
Financial Timescolumnist Martin Wolf, an economist, poses the question, "Will CO2 emissions limits lead to a zero-sum global economy?" – an economy characterized by stagnant (or declining) incomes, and armed conflict among nations?
Wolf argues that increased energy consumption per capita, primarily oil from fossil fuel, has been a key causal factor in creating the plus-sum economic world we live in, which he calls the positive-sum economy. Or in other words, rising energy consumption has helped produce rising productivity / real incomes / wealth, and the expanding global economy that we know today.
In addition, Wolf further argues that rising energy consumption transformed politics -- assisting both the birth of democratic politics at home and more-consensual foreign relations among states -- by increasing the size of the economic pie. Elites in a country, Wolf argues, became more willing to tolerate the enfranchisement of the masses because it was in the elites' economic interest to do so: i.e. that energy consumption created a more-productive (and more-valuable) citizenry with higher incomes.
Internationally, a nation's gains from the increased trade that characterizes the high-energy consumption era far exceed its gains from making war with another nation: the plus-sum global economy that trade produces supports today's norm of trade as opposed to the limited-sum world's norm of conflict and war.
In an essay/column in this week's issue of The New Yorker magazine ("Paulson's Plan," December 17, 2007) writer James Surowiecki offers a more-somber analysis of the subprime mortgage default issue than, say, Financial Times'columnist Martin Wolf.
In Surowiecki's analysis, (which, readers should note, was researched and published before the European Central Banks' infusion of $500 billion Tuesday to ensure year-end liquidity for banks), the current problem is one unlike any other that Wall Street has faced. The problem is not liquidity, as Martin Wolf argued, but 1) high-risk home owners who spent way too much n overpriced houses, and 2) a deep mistrust of the financial system because of the way the system rates and values assets like mortgages.
At issue: Wall Street?
Hence, the Bush Administrations' proposed assistance plan to the mortgage sector and some homeowners, even if it becomes more-encompassing, would not solve the problem: the financial system - - and presumably Wall Street - - simply does not rate and value assets correctly, and the government package doesn't speak to that dimension.
According to the Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) "Heard on the Street" column, content firms such as Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) and Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) are getting hammered, and there appears to be no letup in sight because while online traffic is up 60% a year over the last few years, those firm's shares are expensive and, says S&P's Scott Kessler, "There's plenty more room for [Akamai and Limelight] to fall."
TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO) is looking at a new revenue source -- being paid to give out market research to advertisers, reported the Wall Street Journal. The company plans to announce today that it will add demographic data, including age, income, marital status and ethnicity, about its viewers.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Ford (NYSE: F) is likely to have to pay any buyer of its Jaguar and Land Rover units because of a $2B pension deficit, according to people close to the situation.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Times reported that Con Edison (NYSE: ED) was fined $18M for service disruptions in 2006, including the nine-day blackout in western Queens, NY.
The Associated Press reported that Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) is considering listing on the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets, according to the company's CEO.
Following Chrysler's lead to cut costs in relation to slowing sales, Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) may cut its 2008 spending by 15%, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
The Writers Guild of America, battling with Hollywood film and TV producers, is expected to call for a strike, reported the Wall Street Journal.
Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) CEO Peter Loscher is getting ready to implement aggressive earnings targets for the company's senior managers, as well as thousands of job cuts, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
Investors may now be looking at AT&T (NYSE: T) as a "high-quality stock for the long haul," says Justin Hellman of Value Line.
While many investors may be looking at Clinical Data's (NASDAQ: CLDA) possible blockbuster antidepressant drug and genetic test, they are banking on the company's Chairman Randal Kirk, who controls 40% of the stock.
MoneyGram International (NYSE: MGI) may be looking for buyers, and John Bendall, CEO of Hermitage Capital, thinks it is worth $30 a share.
Next year the sale of prescription drugs in the U.S is expected to be the slowest in years, resulting from tough regulation and cost-controls, according to IMS Health Inc., a health-care information and consulting firm, and reported by the Wall Street Journal.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) has paid $90M for a 1% stake in Bovespa, the owner of Brazil's largest exchange. The move is seen as an attempt by NYSE Euronext to increase its presence in Brazil, reported the Financial Times.
OTHER PAPERS:
The U.K. Times reported that British telecom company BT Group (NYSE: BT) is expected to announce that it will cut thousands of jobs when it reports its Q2 results next week.
Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) has notified pension boards that it is being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which believes the company may have violated federal regulations, reported the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
The Detroit News reported that Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and the UAW talks adjourned at 1am and will continue later this morning. Sources say that progress was made in the talks although no agreement was reached.
Congress approved a seven year extension of ban on Internet tax, voting 402-0, and President Bush is expected to sign the bill, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Stan O'Neal may be gone, but the SEC's enforcement staff is now looking at how Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) informed investors about its $8.4B write-down that forced O'Neal out, reported the Wall Street Journal.
CLP Holdings (OTC: CLPHY), Hong Kong's largest power company, is planning to bid for electricity assets in Australia, India, Singapore and other countries in Southeast Asia, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
OTHER PAPERS:
The Star reported that life insurance company Manulife Financial Corporation (NYSE: MFC) is open to making acquisitions in Malaysia if suitable opportunities in the country arise, according to Manulife's senior executive vice-president and general manager for Asia, Robert A. Cook.
The U.K. Times reported that British Airways' (OTC: BAIRY) plans to create a new airline offering flights between Europe and New York have been thrown into disarray after the Federal Aviation Administration threatened to block any increase of air traffic into New York's chronically congested JFK Airport.
According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street," Frederick Cannon of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods says that Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) stock will "underperform" the market, and that they haven't indicated that they can "earn above its cost of capital" especially when future mortgage losses are unclear.
Last month Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) reported a 61% fall in third quarter earnings and chairman and CEO James Cayne has announced that 300 staffers are being laid off, according to the Wall Street Journal.
As a result of banking reforms in Japan, JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon says the bank is ready to make a significant acquisitions there, according to the Financial Times.
OTHER PAPERS:
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) intends to close six unnamed plants that the UAW wants to remain open, and the company is willing to compromise if the UAW agrees to certain concessions, reported the Associated Press.
On the heels of a strong third quarter, mall developer Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) is in a buying mode, looking for troubled companies, reported the Indianapolis Star.
Walter S. Mossberg, who writes the Wall Street Journal's "Personal Technology" column, reviewed Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) new Leopard operating system, and said it was "better and faster than [Windows] Vista".
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is halting two small studies of the most promising drug in its pipeline, prasugrel, which it hopes will bring over $1B a year in sales for the drug maker, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
The Wall Street Journal reported that Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) has beaten Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) in a closely watched contest, winning a minority stake in Facebook for $240M, and the right to sell advertising on the Facebook site outside the U.S..
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is considering acquiring a stake in a Chinese brokerage as part of its expansion strategy in the country, said Gaby Abdelnour, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Asia Pacific, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
The Financial Times reported that Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) raised its earnings outlook and announced that its 1H07 profits had tripled, thanks to the success of its Wii video game console and the DS, its handheld games player.
According to antitrust attorneys, a possible merger with a Big Pharma company may result in Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) having to divest some overlapping assets or licensing deals in order for the deal to get approval from the Federal Trade Commission, reported the Financial Times "MergerMarket" blog.
The Financial Times reported that Gilat Satellite Networks (NASDAQ: GILT) is working with UBS to evaluate "several strategic and private equity buyers" in buying Gilat, which could get over $500M in a sale, according to people familiar with the matter. Bids for the company are due by the end of the week, said the sources.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Times reported that Chinese investment bank Citic Securities is planning to invest $1B in Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC), according to sources.
The New York Times reported that the head of the Federal Trade Commission, or FTC, has rejected numerous requests to open an investigation into Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) for anticompetitive conduct, according to inside sources.
The Guardian reported that world oil production peaked last year, and production will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report by Germany-based organization Energy Watch Group.
In an interview with the Financial Times (subscription required), Carl Icahn said of Motorola (NYSE: MOT): "There is value there, and if that value doesn't manifest itself, I as an activist, would think very seriously about coming back."
OTHER PAPERS:
Universal Music is in talks with Sony Corporation's (NYSE: SNE) Sony BMG and Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) over launching a music subscription service to be called Total Music, which would be free on certain devices, reported the Telegraph.
While Emerging Memory Technologies CEO Sreedhar Natarajan would not confirm the deal, stating "I'm under a non-disclosure agreement," it is clear that EMT has been acquired by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), the Ottawa Citizen reported.
Lehman Brothers analyst Douglas Anmuth believes Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) will launch a mobile phone similar to that of Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone in February, reported the Independent.
The Associated Press reported that Nomura Holdings (NYSE: NMR) announced that it will close its mortgage-backed securities business in the U.S., and expects a group pretax loss of between $240M and $510M for the quarter ended in September.
WEBSITES:
According to Unstrung.com's sources in the finance community, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is expected to enter the WiMax arena before the end of the month, and Navini Networks is Cisco's preferred target.
According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column, Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) is struggling due to competitors' pricing, safer cars, and a struggling economy, to name a few factors.
The Financial Times reported that General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) will decide whether to sell its 80% stake in NBC Universal after the Beijing Olympics in August 2008, according to sources.
Tenaris (NYSE: TS), the maker of steel pipes for oil and gas exploration, has ruled out any possible sale of itself to ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) , the world's biggest steel producer, reported the Financial Times.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Post reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) has fired David Martin, its head of interest-rate trading, and James Stehli, the head of its collateralized debt obligation unit, due to the fallout from the mortgage meltdown.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) CEO Tony Hayward will today unveil plans to reduce bureaucracy and duplication of management at the oil giant, reported the Telegraph.
Negotiations continued last night on a new labor agreement between Chrysler and the UAW, but it is unclear if an agreement will be reached by today's 11am deadline, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is today expected to announce plans to build a $5B resort in Atlantic City, NJ that will be completed in 2012, reported the Wall Street Journal.
The CEO of Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding (OTC: RHHBY), Franz Humer, said he has no intention of increasing his company's $75 per share bid for U.S. diagnostics company Ventana Medical Systems (NASDAQ: VMSI), and is "very confident" that the offer will succeed, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).
Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, confirmed that there's little chance this year -- due to a crowded legislative calendar -- that there will be legislation to increase taxes on the private equity industry, reported TheDeal.com (subscription required).
The FDA is soon expected to issue an alert to physicians about "serious risks" regarding the use of drugs to diagnose heart problems while using ultrasound imaging machines, reported the Wall Street Journal. The key drug is Bristol-Myers Squibb's (NYSE: BMY) Definity and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) Optison.
According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard the Street" column, there's no quick recovery in sight for AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR), as significant revenue gains are not apparent and the company is saddled with high costs.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) are expected to reveal combined losses of about $3B on holdings of mortgage securities and leveraged loans when they report Q3 results this month, reported the Financial Times.
OTHER PAPERS:
A consortium led by Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) is believed to be the frontrunner in the GBP4B auction of Southern Water, the utility that supplies water to more than 1 million households in the Southeast, reported the U.K. Times.
Troubled Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) is searching for a replacement for CEO Gary Forsee, and expects to have a new person in place by December, reported the Wall Street Journal.
Two Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed mortgage related hedge funds, that lost $1.6B, have drawn an investigation from the U.S. attorney in Brooklyn, NY, reported the Wall Street Journal.
The Financial Times reported that the U.K. economy will be affected by the global credit crisis, according to Chancellor of the exchequer Alistair Darling, who said that while the U.K. economy is in a strong position to ride out the impact, growth projections will be lowered from the current 2.5%-3%.
Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) has benefited from Wall Street's equity market gains, with high-end investors piling money into art, and Rommel Dionisio of Wedbush Morgan Securities sees the stock going to $60 in a year.
Amid concern that it might miss the Street's Q3 forecast, is Polycom (NYSE: PLCM) oversold at $26? Yes, says Greg MacArthur, president of investment outfit Viewpoint2000.
Stereotaxis (NASDAQ: STXS) makes a computerized magnetically controlled navigation system that guides devices used in minimally invasive cardiac arrhythmia surgery, and Standard & Poor's rates the stock a Buy, in part because of its order backlog of $55 million.
While the euro has risen by as much as 40% against the dollar since 2002, emerging market currencies have only seen gains of 17%.
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Best & Worst in Money 2008: Most shocking financial collapse
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