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Banks may fight over new $70 billion fund

Twelve banks, lead by JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), will set up a $70 billion loan facility which any of them can draw on in an emergency.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "The pool would act as a signal to the marketplace that banks, brokerages, and other financial companies can lean on the fund to take care of borrowing needs."

By some accounts, any one of the members in the pool can take down 33% of the $70 billion. If the financial crisis gets significantly worse, the partners may be battling each other for that money. Competition for the capital could become unpleasant.

One other way to look at the fund is that it is an M&A facility. If any single bank or broker owes the fund $30 billion, it may be a way for a stronger member, say Goldman, to buy that company by taking on its loan obligation.

An acquisition fund disguised as a lender venture. How clever.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

AIG may announce turnaround plan early to calm market fears

American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), which some are worried may be the next big financial company to fall, had planned to announce its turnaround plan on the 25th. Given the more than 40% decline in the stock over the past month, Wall Street decided it could not wait that long.

According to Bloomberg News, AIG may unveil a restructuring of the company before its self-imposed deadline. The story does not elaborate on this further. Investors are rightly concerned that ratings agencies may cut the debt ratings of the world's largest insurer triggering more than $13 billion in collateral calls that would drain its cash reserves further, according to Bloomberg News.

"The price of credit-default swaps, used as hedges against losses on bad debt, approached distressed levels and traded higher than those for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the securities firm that's fighting for survival," according to the news service.

AIG, which has lost $18.5 billon over the past three quarters, raised more than $20 billion in capital in March. Kathleen Shaney of Gimme Credit told Dow Jones that AIG may have to sell assets in order to head off potentially ruinous debt downgrades.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is steadfastly refusing to bailout Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH). That's not surprising given that its an election year and that the Democrats complained bitterly about the rescue of Bear Stearns. He shouldn't bail out AIG either. The companies got themselves in this mess. They need to get themselves out of it.

Charles Schwab (SCHW): Value play in 'battered' financials

"We continue to apply our value-oriented principles in selecting new growth stocks as we look for companies with superior profitability and strong balance sheets," says Jim Stack.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he and analyst Bruce Morison explain, "Our latest featured investment, Charles Schwab Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHW), is a prime example and stands out as a conservative way to access to opportunities in the battered financial group."

"We are increasing our equity allocation in stocks that should show strong relative performance in a market upturn.

"We continue, however, to be very selective in terms of quality, as well as downside risk. Over the past 20 years, brokerage/asset management firms have produced more than twice the return of the market following a bear market.

"The Charles Schwab brand is one of the most well-known and trusted names in the financial services industry. Its strategy is to be competitively priced, but more importantly to be positioned as the gold standard in client service and integrity.

Continue reading Charles Schwab (SCHW): Value play in 'battered' financials

Energy stocks vs. financial stocks

By Michael Vodicka, Zack's Investment Research.

In spite of the recent selloff in the energy sector, most of these stocks are still trading with big gains on the year. This stands in sharp contrast to stocks from the financial sector, which have suffered steep losses as big banks have been forced to liquidate assets and raise capital to support their balance sheets.

Because these two groups of stocks have functioned as polar opposites during this stretch, it has provoked many conversations about which is currently the more attractive investment destination; high-flying energy stocks or beaten down financial stocks.

Its All About Earnings

When you take a look at the earnings picture, this argument becomes very one-sided.

Crude prices have recently dipped lower, but they are still very high when compared to historical norms, and this will translate into big earnings for energy companies. We can see this dynamic expressed through analyst estimates.

Encore Acquisition Co. (NYSE: EAC) shares are still trading up sharply on the year in spite of the stocks recent sell off, but estimates have risen in tandem with the stock price, with the current-year estimate advancing to $5.07 per share per share from $3.63 per share 90 days ago. This kind of earnings power provides plenty of fundamental strength for more share appreciation.

Continue reading Energy stocks vs. financial stocks

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Checking in with the lonely financial bulls

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Rich Pzena has a different take on the value of the beaten-down financial sector.

If you think the world is coming to an end, you might as well read Rich Pzena's note from Pzena Investment's (NYSE: PZN) (Cramer's Take) earnings call -- he talks about how the world just might not be ending.

Rich has done excellent work his whole career and, in full disclosure, is a friend, and I don't seek out or have many friends on Wall Street. It makes the job -- telling the truth as I see it -- a little too hard.

Anyway, Rich has been wrong, or early, or whatever you want to call it, on the financials. Someone like Doug Kass, who has been dead right on the financials, might take umbrage to my even mentioning Rich's work, but Rich deserves respect for his unbelievably great work over the years.

I liked his conference call because no punches were pulled. He just admitted plain up that his quarter was awful, just terrible, as befits a money management company that invests in value, which now means the financials.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Checking in with the lonely financial bulls

Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials

After the market closed last night, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding from Monday's notable drop and ending the trading day at 11,397.56, up 266.48 (+2.39%), I posted Serious Money: 10 finance stocks as the market bounces. This is the follow-up post listing the full pool of speculative stocks that as a group I believe will beat the overall market in the next 12 months.

The prediction business is thankless and the speculative business is even worse; it is often painful. I usually refrain from this activity but today I play the contrarian in a Sir John Templeton (RIP) sort of way, jumping into the stock market's worst performing sector with both feet. I believe the market is at or near a bottom and this summer is the time to buy.

Looking for a break in the clouds, yesterday I started choosing ten stocks knowing that three or four may go to zero, a few more will survive with modest gains, and three or four will rise, not returning to their old glory soon but more than covering the ones that fail. The first four picks have been bleeding all over Wall Street for a year now and the blood-letting is not done yet.

Initially I was looking for stocks that had fallen at least 70%. After reviewing my figures, I have compromised and changed that to 63% so that I could include some of the major companies like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) that are broadly held and have strong reader interest. Prices are as of July 29, 2008.

Continue reading Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials

Comfort Zone Investing: Sifting for winners in the financials

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

There are clearly some banks, thrifts and other financial institutions doing better than others. That became clear in the most recent earnings releases. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) showed a profit. True, lower than last year but that was expected. What wasn't expected was better revenues and lower losses. JPMorgan & Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) had a similar story. So did Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC). Citigroup (NYSE: C) gave better than predicted numbers. Those were the good announcements.

Not doing so well is Wachovia Bank (NYSE: WB). That loss was much larger than analysts projected. The bank cut the dividend, as expected. The stock gave up more ground.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Sifting for winners in the financials

Sallie Mae (SLM): At the head of the class

"Since the market started its downturn early this year, I have avoided all financial stocks and resisted the temptation of value plays," says Dave Dyer.

In his Dave Dyer's Newsletter, he explains, "Well, it is now time to violate both of those prohibitions at once." Here, he looks at a new buy for SLM Corporation (NYSE: SLM), commonly known as Sallie Mae, the nation's largest provider of college loans and savings programs."

"There must be some financial areas that have predictable, growing demand, willing customers who actually have low default rates, and securitization processes that do not involve the type of financial engineering that is only intended to hide risk.

"Well, there is such an area, and it even involves a product that it makes sense to finance since it will actually increase in value over time. I'm talking about student loans.

Continue reading Sallie Mae (SLM): At the head of the class

I'm losing my patience with this market!

Monday was an extremely trying day for my portfolio and me. Talk about depressing. Let's see, CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) took a dive of almost 15% on hellishly high volume (it traded more than 17 million shares on Monday, and AOL Finance lists the 30-day average volume as being a little under 3 million shares) on news about a money-losing sale of assets. Now, once I saw CapitalSource moving down, I knew that Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) wasn't going to be trading higher. Sure enough, there was indeed something new at Newcastle. A new 52-week low. The stock closed Monday at $7.06, down 10% and one penny above the low. And then there's MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). It too was down, although only about 2%. Yeah, only. All of these stocks are at prices well below my cost basis.

I'm at that weird crossroads all investors find themselves at some point. Is it too late to sell? Let me tell you, I don't want to be one of those panic sellers who regrets dumping his stocks because as soon as he does so they start to rise. But, I don't want to be one of those holders who doesn't know when enough is enough. It's pretty rough. You don't know whether to add to positions that are faring poorly and thus risk throwing away money, or whether to avoid adding money and thus risk not getting some bargain prices. And in terms of Newcastle, my colleague Sheldon Liber is with me on this. He thinks the stock may turn out to be a value. See this article.

My other colleague, Timothy Sykes, has counseled me to instead focus on strong stocks that are working. I can't say he doesn't have a point. Indeed, my portfolio does seem rather masochistic. For now, though, I will try to avoid any emotional decisions. I am going to continue to watch the financial carnage as it further unfolds and evaluate every potential stock trade very carefully. This summer is going to be a tough one. I'll let you know what happens.

Disclosure I own CapitalSource, MFA, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.

Adamo: 'Insider' expert banks on Buffett

The model portfolio of Insiders Plus gains 48% last year; here, editor Jack Adamo reviews two of his portfolio holdings -- both bank stocks being accumulated by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

"U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) reported a slight decrease in Q1 earnings of 62¢ per share versus 63¢ last year; the shares rose 2.8% the next day. Compared to the disastrous results of its peers, this small decline in earnings was a home run.

"That's a testament to the company's savvy managers. USB steered clear of the toxic problems that choked most banks. Only 2.7% of its loans are subprime.

"Warren Buffett's Berkshire-Hathaway continues to buy the stock steadily. Recent SEC filings show that in the fourth quarter of 2007 Berkshire increased its share of the Minneapolis-based bank by 3 million shares to a total of 75 million.

"This represents 4.4% of its shares outstanding, and up tremendously from its stake of 23 million shares just a few years ago. The Wizard of Omaha knows what he likes and why he likes it.

"Meanwhile, Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) reported Q1 earnings of 60¢ per share down 9% year-over-year, but up 46% from the December quarter. Like USB, Fargo shares continue to be accumulated at Berkshire Hathaway.

"The stock is a solid long-term buy, with good prospects of steadily raising its 4.2% dividend. It has capital appreciation potential to boot, especially after the housing hangover abates."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

'Back up the truck' for financials?

"When I evaluate the underlying fundamentals in the financial sector, I find myself ready to back up the truck," notes Louis Basenese, editor with The Oxford Club. Here he looks at a financial ETF.

"Recently GE shocked the world when it missed earnings expectations by seven cents because of difficulties in its financial services business, the seventh largest in the United States. Then Wachovia posted a worse-than expected $1.1 billion loss.

"Next was Washington Mutual which reported a $1.14 billion quarterly loss, worse than expected. And Merrill Lynch had a quarterly loss of $1.96 billion, also worse than expectations.

"Not to be outdone, the bottom of the line-up, regional banks (Comerica Inc., KeyCorp and PNC Financial Services Group) also struck out, reporting worse than expected first-quarter net income and/or mounting credit-loss provisions and net charge-offs.

"Remarkably, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (ASE: XLF) has barely budged. Indeed, its 15% higher than where it was when Bear Stearns collapsed.

Continue reading 'Back up the truck' for financials?

Income expert banks on Canada

"Almost untouched by the subprime scandal and the subsequent credit fallout, Canada's banks are strong and their risk of writeoffs are consider by most analysts as minor," notes Genia Turanova and Gregory Dorsey in Leeb's Income Performance Letter.

Here, they look at two favorites in the Canadian banking sector: Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD) and Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY).

"Toronto-Dominion and its subsidiaries, collectively known as TD Bank Financial Group, serve more than 14 million customers. The group offers a full range of financial products and services including wholesale banking securities, personal and business banking, wealth management and U.S. personal and commercial banking.

"TD Bank is looking to expand its US presence by acquiring New Jersey-based Commerce Bancorp. After the acquisition is completed, TD's US banking operations will double. As for the hot topic of all financials these days – its subprime exposure – Commerce Bancorp's $16 billion loan portfolio has no subprime exposure.

Continue reading Income expert banks on Canada

Value investor banks on US Bancorp (USB)

"The indiscriminate sell-off in the financial sector has left some banks at valuations that haven't been seen in 20 years," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.

In his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, the advisors looks to one out-of-favor favorite among banks: Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB). Incidentally, he notes that Warren Buffett recently added to his position in the banking stock.

"US Bancorp is the nation's sixth-largest bank in terms of assets, with nearly $238 billion at last count. The firm operates over 2,500 branches in 24 states, mostly in the western and midwestern parts of the country, including an established presence in key markets such as St. Louis, Denver and Seattle.

"Over the past year, the company has seen solid increases in both loans and deposits. More importantly, it paid out just 3.8% on those interest-bearing liabilities, far below what it earned on loans and other investments -- with the net interest margin expanding to 3.91%.

"And, that rate could move even higher in the coming months thanks to a more favorable interest rate environment. And as for credit quality, U.S. Bank remains at the very top of its peer group.

Continue reading Value investor banks on US Bancorp (USB)

Comfort Zone Investing: Tis the season to be cautious

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he offers advice to investors who are just getting started.

Wall Street is the place where it's always darkest just before it gets pitch black. Pessimism (also known as fear) can grip investors firmly and paralyze them, particularly when it comes to buying stocks related in any way to mortgages. Many investors are afraid and fear the worst is still ahead. It may be. But it may not be.

The fear is certainly founded in experience. Any one owning stocks such as Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) or Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE: WM) saw tremendous losses in 2007. These stocks lead the financial sector on the way down. And they should have. Their losses were catastrophic with writedowns of mortgages and derivatives in the billions of dollars. And no one really knows how bad the next surprise will be. So the natural and survival related reaction is to simply stay away from these stocks.

That would be a mistake. These are some of the largest companies in their fields. They are leaders. While they got greedy and paid the price, these firms have been around for a long time and have made profits for years. Countrywide had 25 years of profits before it took its first loss last quarter. It may take another loss for the fourth quarter of 2007. Management stated early in the quarter that it would show a profit. But investors are skeptical. The stock continues to hit new lows.

While it's prudent to be skeptical, it can be short sighted to simply ignore these sectors. No one knows how bad the fourth quarter was for these and other financial stocks. We'll find out in a few weeks when earnings are released. But what if the worst is behind these stocks? What if profits are back even if only by a small amount? If so, these stocks will soar. They're priced for the worst case: more losses with more to follow.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Tis the season to be cautious

Best Stocks for 2008: Contrary call on Citigroup (C)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"In a perverse twist of irony, more adventurous investors could choose Citigroup (NYSE: C), which is my speculative favorite for 2008," says Keith Fitz-Gerald, editor of Money Morning.

"I recognize that you might be thinking that I've completely lost my mind. But I believe this is an opportunity to buy into one of the world's fastest growing and best run financial companies at a bargain basement price.

"First, what's causing Citi's current angst is related to a breakdown of risk management -- not the deterioration of operations. The company remains globally diversified, and many portions of its business still reflect double-digit growth rates, particularly when it comes to China and Eastern Europe.

"In my view, Citi is now trading for a pittance. In fact, it's just barely seven times earnings and eight times 2008 earnings. Yet if you add up the growth prospects and current valuations, the company reflects a value that could be as high as $60 or more a share.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Contrary call on Citigroup (C)

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