Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the company announced it has halted crude oil production at its Horizon oil-sands plant in Alberta, Canada, after a fire broke out in a plant facility Thursday. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CNQ.

This morning, CNQ opened at $40.61. So far today the stock has hit a high of $41.84 and a low of $40.42. As of 12:15, CNQ is trading at $41.15, down $1.95 (-4.5%). The chart for CNQ looks bullish and S&P gives CNQ a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Analyst Upgrades

• Tyco Electronics (TEL) and Weight Watchers (WTW) to buy from neutral, and Smithfield Foods (SFD) to buy from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Red Hat (RHT) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Gold Fields (GFI) to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
• Novartis (NVS) to outperform from neutral and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Dollar General (DG) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
• Eagle Rock Energy (EROC) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded CSX (CSX) to neutral from sell.
• General Cable (BGC) was upgraded to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Chart Industries (GTLS) and Dresser Rand (DRC) to overweight from equal weight.
• Blackrock (BLK) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Zions Bancorp (ZION) to neutral from underperform and GameStop (GME) to outperform from neutral.
• Honeywell (HON) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Panera Bread (PNRA) was upgraded to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

Analyst Upgrades

• BofA/Merrill upgraded Eastman Chemical (EMN) to buy from neutral and raised its target to $82 from $80. The analyst upgraded shares based on valuation and expectations for strong earnings from fibers and performance chemicals.
• Bernstein upgraded Hershey (HSY) to market perform from underperform based on strong near-term category growth.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Actuant (ATU) to buy from neutral with a $25 price target following the company's Q3 results.
• Infinera (INFN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• CTC Media (CTCM) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Williams (WMB) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Coinstar Inc. (CSTR) shares surged following stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings driven by DVD rentals.
• Humana Inc. (HUM) shares traded lower despite the report of better-than-expected earnings for Q1.
• IMAX Corp. (IMAX) reported strong Q1 results that easily topped consensus estimates, but shares declined.
• Kellogg Co. (K) topped Q1 earnings expectations and announced a share buyback program.
• Office Depot Inc. (ODP) Q1 earnings fell short of consensus estimates and same-store sales declined.

The past year has been strong for shareholders of Sourcefire (FIRE), which develops security software. The shares have gone from a low of $9.52 to a high of $28.

However, in light of this week's earnings report, there was a sell off, with the shares now trading at $22.79. But this looks like a good price point for those who want to participate in the leading-edge of the security business.

SourceFire (FIRE) develops digital security and information management software for the government and private industry. Its innovative programming team is constantly upgrading features, staying one step ahead of the latest digital threats. Its customers have included PricewaterhouseCoopers, SAIC and Ernst & Young.

In its latest earnings report at the end of February, SourceFire posted earnings of 23 cents per share. That was significantly above Wall Street's target of 19 cents.

The market's rebound after a rough start to February has proven that this bull market still has some legs. But I must warn you that not all stocks are set to share in the profits.

The bearish analysts like to hold up the trouble for a few big-name blue chips as a sign that market is doomed -- but don't believe it. These naysayers who focus on the short-lived dips or handful of problem companies forget this is a market of stocks and not just a stock market.

The fact is that there are a lot of smaller companies that are thriving right now even if the 30 components of the Dow are struggling.

Analyst Upgrades

• Citigroup upgraded PPG Industries (PPG) to buy from hold on expectations the company will benefit from increased auto production in 2010. The firm raised its price target on shares to $71 from $62.
• Stephens upgraded H&R Block (HRB) to overweight from equal weight as it believes the company is well positioned to gain market share with the problems at Jackson Hewitt (JTX). The firm raised its target price on H&R Block shares to $28 from $22.
• Credit Suisse raised Tyson Foods (TSN) to outperform from neutral and raised its target to $16 from $13. The firm believes Tyson is a cyclical stock in the early stages of a rebound in protein processing.
• Lennar (LEN) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Spartech (SEH) was upgraded to buy from hold at KeyBanc.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of SourceFire (NASDAQ:FIRE) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company is benefiting from recent spending by the U.S. Federal government and private enterprises to improve cybersecurity. The firm raised their price target on the stock to $11 from $7.
  
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Brocade (NASADAQ:BRCD) to Buy from Neutral as they believe an expanded OEM announcement with IBM (NYSE:IBM) could be announced as early as the end of April, creating a positive catalyst. The firm raised their price target on the stock to $6 from $4.
  
• UBS upgraded Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) to Buy from Sell but lowered their target to $4 from $21 citing reduced churn and cashflow concerns, expectations for FY10 to be a trough year, and a potential reacceleration in deferred growth.
• AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Strattec (NASDAQ:STRT) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Baird.
  
• Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) was upgraded at William Blair to Outperform from Market Perform.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bidz.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDZ) Q4 earnings release included notice about an SEC investigation.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) saw net income drop by almost 50%, falling short of estimates.
• Ducommun Inc. (NYSE: DCO) received an analyst's downgrade after its Q4 earnings release.
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) said Q4 earnings fell due to weakness at Gap and Old Navy stores.
• General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) worse-than-expected results prompted speculation about its survival.

It's been rough since Sourcefire Inc. (NASDAQ: FIRE) went public last year. The stock went from $18.83 to a low of $5. The company, which provides cutting-edge security technologies, has been missing analyst estimates and can't seem to get the confidence of investors.

Well, Sourcefire has now attracted a hostile bidder -- Barracuda Networks, which is offering $7.50 per share. As a result, Sourcefire's stock price is now trading at about $7.65. Of course, the company has rejected the offer (indicating that is far too low).

To get a perspective on things, I had a chance to talk to Nick Selby, who is the senior analyst of enterprise security at the 451 Group. According to him, the bid is indeed too low. If anything, this could entice other bidders to the table.

In fact, he thinks other broken IPOs may be buyout targets, such as ArcSight (NASDAQ: ARST).

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, Kirby and First Fed Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• UBS downgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Neutral from Buy after channel checks indicated orders are slowing, which gives them concern over the July quarter.
  
• Stephens cut Kirby (NYSE: KEX) to Equal Weight from Overweight as they believe a good 2008 is already priced into shares and that the liquid barge industry cycle may be nearing a top.
  
• First Fed Financial (NYSE: FED) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, citing credit quality deterioration.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan removed HB Fuller (NYSE: FUL) from its Focus List.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded SourceFire (NASDAQ: FIRE) to Sector Perform from Outperform.
  
• Goldman cut Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) to Sell from Neutral.

Being from L.A., I've had to deal with earthquakes and fire (no, it's not always sunshine here). And, of course, I saw the devastation of the recent fires.

But what about some of the businesses that need to rebuild? Could they have prepared for the fires?

Well, I recently interviewed Jon Toigo, a disaster recovery expert at Toigo Partners International. Over the past 20 years, he has put together nearly 100 disaster recovery plans. His clients include Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ). Also, Toigo has a partnership with Office Depot to help businesses deal with disaster preparedness.

"The bottom line in disaster preparedness is to protect your most irreplaceable assets – your people and your data," said Toigo.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Toyota Motor Corp (TM), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), SourceFire (FIRE), Kohl's Corp (KSS) and Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded shares of Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE: TM) to Buy from Neutral to reflect expectations for greater operating profits and margin expansion in 2007.

• Keybanc upgraded shares of J.B. Hunt Transport (NASDAQ: JBHT) to Buy from Hold based on increased conviction in JBHT's ability to increase intermodal volumes, easier 2H and 2008 comps, buybacks and valuation.

• Jefferies upgraded SourceFire Inc (NASDAQ: FIRE) to Buy from Hold after their checks indicated better Federal IT spending and solid sales activity.

• Kohl's Corp (NYSE: KSS) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Baird on valuation.

• Millennium Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MLNM) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Friedman Billings, citing recent monthly Velcade prescription trends for the move higher...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Credit Suisse upgraded Arch Capital Group (NASDAQ: ACGL) to Buy from Neutral.

• Bear Stearns raised Parexel International Corp (NASDAQ: PRXL) to Peer Perform from Underperform.

• Morgan Joseph upgraded West Marine (NASDAQ: WMAR) to Buy from Hold.

• Morgan Keegan raised Cost Plus Inc (NASDAQ: CPWM) to Market Perform from Underperform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).