Historically, when the Fed has started cutting rates, investing in financial stocks has proven profitable for investors. Will the same hold true in today's easing cycle? Probably not.
The Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) model for its mortgage business might point to problems ahead for the financial industry in general. The financial services industry has done an outstanding job during the past twenty years developing new products and marketing them to institutions who specialize in buying these new instruments -- primarily hedge funds. With mortgage hedge funds, publicly traded vehicles such as mortgage REITs and other investors now shutting their doors to these products, who gets stuck with them? You guessed it! The investment firms and large commercial banks.
Now let's go to $300 billion of private equity debt that needs to be placed. Who is buying that up? While some institutions are, much of it is staying on the books of the investment firms and banks. Will funds be formed to invest in this debt? Yes, but it will take time.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genentech, HSBC Holdings, Suntech Power, SunPower and Force Protection were today's noteworthy initiations:
UBS is positive on Genentech Inc's (NYSE: DNA) leading industry franchises and potential upside from development projects and started shares with a Buy rating and $101 target.
HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) was assumed with a Reduce rating at WestLB, as the firm believes subprime concerns may hold back shares in the near-term.
Jefferies initiated shares of SunTech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) with a Buy rating and $45 target. The firm believes the company is positioned to beat 2007 and 2008 expectations by ramping manufacturing capacity and production faster than expected.
Jefferies also resumed coverage of SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) with a Hold rating and $90 target, citing valuation, but believes the stock's higher multiple is justified given the company's superior growth potential.
Force Protection Inc (NASDAQ: FRPT) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and Friedman Billings, as they believe near-term production expectations are too high given emerging DOD funding issues.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Lehman started shares of Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) with an Overweight rating.
Bear downgraded shares of Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC) to Peer Perform from Outperform based on lack of visibility, execution issues, softer consumer environment, potential pricing disruptions, and product cycle concerns.
Merrill downgraded shares of Wells Fargo and Company (NYSE: WFC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect higher credit losses and valuation and KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) to Sell from Neutral to reflect the company's "weak" revenue growth.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Mattel, Volvo, PMI Group, Mosaic and Diamond Foods were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Mattel Inc (NYSE: MAT) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation, strong 2008 product line-up, and expected organic sales growth.
Goldman upgraded shares of Volvo (NASDAQ: VOLV) to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the company's prospects for earnings are not priced into shares. Volvo was added to the firm's Conviction Buy List.
PMI Group's (NYSE: PMI) rating was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Piper Jaffray on valuation.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) to Hold from Sell to reflect their increased commodity price forecasts.
Diamond Foods Inc (NASDAQ: DMND) was upgraded to Buy from hold at BB&T Capital on valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Bear Stearns upgraded Diana Shipping Inc (NYSE: DSX) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: News Corp, Limelight Networks, Corning and Carmike Cinemas were today's noteworthy initiations:
RBC Capital is positive on News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) strategy of investing cash flow away from mature enterprises to fund high-growth initiatives such as Sky Italia and Fox Interactive Media. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $26 target.
Kaufman Brothers rates Limelight Networks Inc (NASDAQ: LLNW) a Sell based on a significant increase in the competitive environment with Akamai discounting on large deals, Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) introducing a competitive offering in November 2007, Korean major-CD Networks becoming aggressive, and new entrants becoming aggressive with their value propositions.
Deutsche Bank initiated Corning Inc (NYSE: GLW) with a Buy rating and $31 target as they believe shares are fundamentally undervalued given the company's strong fundamentals and promising outlook.
Carmike Cinemas Inc (NASDAQ: CKEC) was started at JP Morgan with an Overweight rating. The firm said the company is the most exposed to 3-D, which could lead to potential upside due to low margins and leverage capital structure.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
UBS started shares of St. Jude Medical Inc (NYSE: STJ) with a Sell rating and $43 target and shares of Medtronic Inc (NYSE: MDT) with a Buy rating and $64 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The ethanol sector, BT Group, AMR Corp and Kyphon were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Friedman Billings downgraded Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) and Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX) to Underperform and VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm said the ethanol market has become increasingly challenging as spot market prices have declined by 30% in the past few months and expect pressure to remain through 2008 as the industry's growing pains continue.
Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Underweight from Equal Weight on valuation and regulation uncertainty ahead of Ofcom's first consultation document next week.
AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman to reflect the company's U.S. exposure as they expect the U.S. economy to slow.
Banc of America downgraded shares of Kyphon Inc (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Neutral from Buy on valuation as the spread on the acquisition by Medtronic Inc (NYSE: MDT) has now narrowed.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, Nokia, General Mills, AudioCodes and OceanFreight were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Cowen upgraded shares of Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) and Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) to Outperform from Neutral. The firm expects Motorola to benefit as the mobile phone market in North America improves as market supply tightens in Q4 and results in better unit pricing, while Nokia's new phones put it in a position to realize higher unit sales.
Credit Suisse upgraded shares of General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS) to Outperform from Neutral citing management's improved execution and openness, and well as valuation.
Cantor raised shares of AudioCodes (NASDAQ: AUDC) to Buy from Hold after channel checks suggested that Q3 business is tracking well.
OceanFreight Inc (NASDAQ: OCNF) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Oppenheimer on valuation and strong dry-bulk fundamentals.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Lehman upgraded shares of Roche Holding (OTC: RHHBY) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The process control sector, R.H. Donnelley, Vonage, Coca-Cola Enterprises and Transocean were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Baird reduced estimates across the board in the process control sector due to lower expectations for North American industrial and residential construction. The firm downgraded Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Regal-Beloit Corp (NYSE: RBC) and Baldor Electric (NYSE: BEZ) to Neutral from Outperform and AO Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) to Underperform from Neutral.
Goldman downgraded shares of R.H. Donnelley Corporation (NYSE: RHD) to Neutral from Buy after the company updated its 2007 guidance to reflect deteriorating trends in local advertising.
Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSE: VG) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil due to liquidity concerns.
Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank on valuation and mixed near-term trends.
Transocean Inc (NYSE: RIG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli. Even though the deepwater market continues to be strong, the firm is concerned regarding the continuing weakness in the jackup market as well as the limited upside potential due to the company's ships being in use through 2009.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The small-cap bank sector, Waste Connections, Warnaco Group and Intersections were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded the small-cap bank sector to Neutral from Negative as they expect the group to benefit from the decline in short-term interest rates and the steeping yield curve. The firm upgraded Associated Banc-Corp (NASDAQ: ASBC), Pacific Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: PCBC) and Westpac Banking Corp (NYSE: WBK) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Friedman Billings added Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) to its Top Picks list. The firm believes the company can outperform the group and overall market in an economic downturn.
Warnaco Group (NASDAQ: WRNC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan on valuation and growth potential.
JMP Securities' checks indicate that Intersections (NASDAQ: INTX) is on track to meet EPS expectations for the quarter and is well positioned to beat their 2008 EPS estimate of 80c. The firm raised shares to Strong Buy from Outperform.
WuXi Pharmatech (NYSE: WX) was started with a Hold rating and $29 target at Jefferies on valuation. JP Morgan started shares with a Neutral rating and Credit Suisse initiated shares with an Outperform rating.
Myriad Genetics Inc (NASDAQ: MYGN) was started with a Hold rating and $50 target at Citigroup, as the firm is cautious on the Phase III Flurizan results and does not recommend putting new money here at these levels.
Citigroup also initiated shares of Cypress Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ: CYPB) with a Buy rating and $22 target as the firm believes Milnacipran has sufficient database for approval and is capable of gaining meaningful market share as firstline therapy.
Knology Inc (NASDAQ: KNOL) was initiated with a Buy rating and $25 target at BWS Financial, as the firm believes the company's growth potential is greater than other cable companies through a business plan that allows it to have operations in all regions of the U.S.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EDO Corp, General Motors, Cameron, Getty Images and Micrus Endovascular were today's noteworthy downgrades:
EDO Corporation (NYSE: EDO) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse following the acquisition by ITT Corporation (NYSE: ITT). Shares were also downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Weisel and to Hold from Buy at B&T Capital.
Goldman downgraded shares of General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) to Neutral from Buy to reflect risk to the company's international and the slowing U.S. economy. Further, Goldman believes expectations for a deal over healthcare costs with unions are now priced into the stock.
Wachovia downgraded Cameron International (NYSE: CAM) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation.
Kaufman Bros. downgraded shares of Getty Images Inc (NYSE: GYI) to Sell from Hold to reflect reduced expectations following the company's announced price reductions.
CIBC downgraded shares of Micrus Endovascular Corporation (NASDAQ: MEND) to Sector Performer from Outperformer following the company's lowered guidance..
MOST NOTEWORTHY: National Grid, Shire Plc, On Semiconductor and Enbridge were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of National Grid (NYSE: NGG) to Buy from Hold as they believe the Keyspan deal will be positive for shareholders.
Goldman upgraded shares of Shire Plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) to Buy from Neutral and added the stock to their Conviction Buy List on valuation and expected gains in the ADHD market.
On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia on valuation.
Enbridge Inc (NYSE: ENB) was raised to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC World Markets, as the firm sees an attractive 3-year return potential as new projects come into service and expects the stock's relative underperformance to come to an end.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Quicksilver Gas Services, Hireright, DaimlerChrysler and Masimo were today's noteworthy initiations:
AG Edwards initiated Quicksilver Gas Services (NYSE: KGS) with a Buy rating and $26 target as the firm believes the company's distribution growth has high visibility, based on its current asset base and the possibility of third-party acquisitions. UBS initiated shares with a Buy rating and $34 target.
Hireright (NASDAQ: HIRE) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and $13 target at Piper Jaffray, as the firm believes the company's distribution growth has high visibility, based on its current asset base and the possibility of third-party acquisitions. CIBC is positive on Hireright's extensive solution set and strategic alliances and initiated shares with a Sector Outperformer rating.
DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DAI) was started at Bear Stearns with an Outperform rating. Following the Chrysler transaction, Bear expects Daimler to raise its margin guidance now that the company can focus on its truck platform.
Masimo Corporation (NASDAQ: MASI) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Piper Jaffray, as the firm believes the company's "best in class" technology will drive continued pulse oximetry share gains. Cowen initiated shares with a Neutral rating on valuation and Deutsche Bank started shares with a Buy rating and $30 target..
MOST NOTEWORTHY: New York Times Co, Lee Enterprises, McClatchy Co, Marsh & McLennan, Deutsche Bank, Ryanair and Applebee's were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded shares of Marsh & McLennan Companies (NYSE: MMC) to Hold from Buy following the departure of Brian Storms, CEO of Marsh Brokerage, as they believe it suggests a continued struggle at the company's core business.
The firm also downgraded Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Sell from Hold to reflect a more bearish outlook for European Banks due to the drop in credit-market revenue.
UBS downgraded shares of Ryanair Holdings (NASDAQ: RYAAY) to Neutral from Buy as they expect higher costs to squeeze margins.
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Applebee's International Inc (NASDAQ: APPB) to Sell from Neutral as they do not expect another suitor to come forward.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ford Motor Co, Advanced Micro Devices, Brocade, Netflix and Equinix were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bear Stearns believes Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) could also benefit from similar deal to General Motors Corporation's (NYSE: GM) potential VEBA healthcare restructuring with the UAW. The firm upgraded Ford shares to Outperform from Peer Perform.
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan. The firm expects AMD's Barcelona server chip will help close the gap vs. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC).
Citigroup upgraded shares of Brocade Communications Systems (NASDAQ: BRCD) to Buy from Hold and added the stock to their Global Tech Conviction List on expectations for market share gains and margin upside in 2008.
Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Overweight from Market Weight, citing reduced pressure from competitor Blockbuster Inc (NYSE: BBI), which could lead to upside in subscribers.
Needham upgraded shares of Equinix (NASDAQ: EQIX) to Buy from Hold to reflect improving fundamentals and potential upside from the IXEurope acquisition.
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Historically, when the Fed has started cutting rates, investing in financial stocks has proven profitable for investors. Will the same hold true in today's easing cycle? Probably not..gif){kind=logo}
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