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Analyst downgrades 4-03-07: First Data, Molson, Novell all downgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Data Corp (FDC), Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP), MetLife, Inc (MET), GSI Commerce, Inc (GSIC) and Foundation Coal Holdings, Inc (FCL) were some of today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Citigroup cut First Data Corp (NYSE: FDC) to Hold from Buy and AG Edwards cut the Colorado-based Computer Services company to Hold from Buy, following the acquisition by KKR; AG Edwards also removed First Data from its Focus Portfolio.
  • Goldman Sachs removed MetLife Inc (NYSE: MET) from its Conviction Buy List.
  • Bear Stearns cut GSI Commerce (NASDAQ: GSIC) to Underperform from Outperform based on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Jefferies downgraded Novell, Inc (NASDAQ: NOVL) to Hold from Buy on valuation after yesterday's "April Fool's-inspired" rally as the firm believes upside from the initial Microsoft-(MSFT) driven SLES deals and restructuring are priced in.
  • Buckingham downgraded Diebold Inc (NYSE: DBD) to Neutral from Accumulate on valuation.
  • CIBC downgraded Ipsco Inc (NYSE: IPS) to Sector Performer from Outperform based on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

First Data won't be the number two buyout for long

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.'s $25.6 billion buyout of First Data Corp. (NYSE:FDC) won't hold the spot of the second-largest buyout for long.

Tthe top-ranked $45 billon TXU deal, which also includes KKR, will get eclipsed as well.

There's bound to be another mega LBO sooner rather than later. KKR, The Blackstone Group and Texas Pacific Group all have billions of dollars burning holes in their pockets.

What people seem to be forget is that these firms don't want their investments to remain private forever. Odds are good that investors will get another shot at buying shares of First Data in a few years. Maybe then being public will be back in style.

First Data should thank its lucky stars that it's being acquired by KKR.

Growth at the credit-card processing company has been slowing since it separate its Western Union payment processing business and has struggled to find a chief executive to succeed Henry C. "Ric" Duques, the Wall Street Journal said.

Duques who returned in November 2005 after his successor Charles Foote announced his retirement for "personal reasons." At the time, Duques agreed to stay for about two years to help the company find a new successor.

Investors have sat on the sidelines while First Data searched for new leadership. Its stock tanked more than 40 percent over the past year even though most Wall Street analysts rate it either a buy or a strong buy.

Analysts had said First Data would make an atractive buyout candidate for private equity. My colleague Georges Yared makes a persuasive case that the company's prospects are good.

In addition, First Data stands to profit handsomely from the private equity boon. All of those credit card purchases by investment bankers of first-class airplane tickets, suites at fancy hotels and expensive bottles of wine have to be processed somewhere, no?

Top Picks 2007: Janssen likes Western Union's wide moat

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Western Union (NYSE: WU) is the top conservative pick for 2007 from Cory Janssen. In the Investopedia Advisor, he explains, "Spun off from First Data Corp. in October, Western Union is an outstanding company to own as a long-term holding.

"Its powerful brand recognition gives it a critical advantage in an industry where customer trust is of such high importance. As well, the company's enviable distribution network leaves it very well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing growth in international money transfers.

"The business does face some short-term risks. Recent political debate surrounding U.S. immigration policy has prompted a decline in the frequency of money transfers from the U.S. to Mexico, and this has weighed on the company's recent quarterly numbers. We feel that this is a temporary blip.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Janssen likes Western Union's wide moat

Analyst downgrades 10/02/06: Apple gets sliced

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), First Data (FDC) and ASM International (ASMI) top today's extensive downgrade list.

  • Apple was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup, citing valuation and the unlikely introduction of the new video iPod before the holiday season.
  • First Data was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at J.P. Morgan based on valuation and expectations of a Q3 miss.
  • CIBC downgraded ASM International to Sector Performer from Sector Outperform based on checks that indicated Intel (INTC) is pushing out adoption of ASMI's atomic layer disposition tool for high-k at 45mn. They note a delay would be positive for Applied Materials (AMAT).

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Due to the change in management and lowered guidance, both Credit Suisse and KeyBanc/McDonald downgraded IT service provider Keane (KEA).
  • ThinkEquity downgraded CryptoLogic (CRYP) to Source of Funds from Accumulate based on the ratification of the Internet gambling bill that will impact earnings.
  • Boston Beer (SAM) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation.
  • USA Truck (USAK) was downgraded by Stephens to Underweight from Equal Weight, citing a less certain 2007 trucking environment and the recent stock offering.

Ratings summary provided courtesy of TheFlyOnTheWall.com.

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