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Energy savers: Betting on Obama's new New Deal

"President Obama has stated that he's been studying Roosevelt's first 100 days and the way out of the current economic mess will look a lot like the New Deal," says David Fessler.

The advisory panelist for The Oxford Club explains, "Seventy-five years after Roosevelt's inauguration, I think we will soon see President Obama get the ball rolling on his version of the New Deal, focused on two very specific areas: energy and infrastructure." Here, he looks at stocks poised to benefit.

"Saving energy will be one of his first initiatives. It's what will give us the quickest bang for our buck. Better insulation in homes, programmable thermostats, fluorescent bulbs, more fuel-efficient cars, energy management systems for use in larger-scale commercial buildings and beefed-up public transportation are just a few of the ways to save energy.

"The government will likely offer attractive tax incentives to rally support. So who stands to prosper from such initiatives?

"Big blue-chip companies, like Owens Corning (NYSE: OC), maker of insulated glass and building insulation; General Electric (NYSE: GE), manufacturer of wind turbines, energy control and infrastructure products; and Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI), maker of energy management systems (for buildings and vehicles) and hybrid vehicle batteries.

Continue reading Energy savers: Betting on Obama's new New Deal

First Solar: Should we really be listening to anyone at Citi?

Shares of First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) have been pummeled this week, as analysts, starting with Citigroup (NYSE: C), downgrade the stock.

Previously, the stock had enjoyed high ratings, generally in the Buy or Accumulate range. With Citi leading the way, other analysts have followed suit with rating reductions.

Citi cited concerns regarding the amount of solar panel inventory waiting to be absorbed, along with worries about future demand.

By some estimates, only 10% of the solar panels in inventory at the end of the year will be taken up by the anticipated increased demand generated from the adoption of the Obama energy proposals. An additional 20% reduction of inventories is projected to result in 2010.

The market is not distinguishing among the companies in the solar panel manufacturing business. Regardless of the strength of an individual manufacturer, all are being treated with the same lack of enthusiasm by analysts and investors. A closer look at First Solar suggests that this should not be the case.

First Solar is a leading designer and manufacturer of solar modules using thin-film semiconductor technology, which converts sunlight to electricity. Based in Phoenix, Ariz., First Solar has long-term supply contracts with 12 European project developers and systems integrators.

The solar module industry has come into recent criticism for its impact on the environment. Concerns are being raised that the eventual disposal of solar panels will result in the emission of large amounts of greenhouse gasses as the semiconductors disintegrate.

First Solar, however, has established a model for extended producer responsibility, which creates an obligation of the producer to have policies and practice to ensure that the company takes responsibility for environmental consequences from cradle to grave. The company provides the purchaser of its products with a guarantee to take back all its panels at the end of their useful life.

First Solar has received acclaim for building concern for environmental impact into all phases of the manufacturing and recycling of its products.

FSLR stock is trading around $142 per share. Shares had rallied last week to $165 per share on the heels of President-elect Obama's energy proposals. The stock had increased in price by 76% from its 52-week low, and was approaching its 12-month target price of $167.70.

The sell-off of FSLR has been greatly overdone. The company's balance sheet is strong, with a long-term debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 and a current ratio of 3.23. The 21.84% on equity should also be of comfort to investors.

An additional plus for FSLR is the likelihood of a push to solar energy as part of the job stimulus program of the new administration.

Louis Navellier's PortfolioGrader Pro, which rates Wall Street stocks, rates FSLR a B or Buy.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to NavellierGrowth.com.

Options Update: ISCA volatility elevated; shares near ten-year low; FSLR, PETM

International Speedway (NASDAQ: ISCA), a promoter of motor sports entertainment, closed at $25.23 Tuesday. ISCA December option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

PetsMart (NYSE: PETM), the operator of more than 1,075 pet stores, is scheduled to report Q3 EPS today. PETM closed at $15.06 Tuesday. PETM November 15 straddle is priced at $1.65, PETM December 15 straddle is priced at $3.40. PETM December option implied volatility is at 97: January is at 75; above its 26-week average of 56 according to Track Data, indicating larger near term movement.

First Solar (NYSE-FSLR) is recently down $6.56 to $104 in pre-open trading. Friedman Billings says: "Recent checks suggest that FSLR's new strategy in the U.S. market (entering the distributed, rooftop segment) is already facing headwinds." FSLR overall option implied volatility of 121 is above its 26-week average of 82 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Solar stocks feeling the pain (LDK, FSLR, JASO, STP)

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) blew its quarter and lowered guidance, and now the group is under pressure.

I don't think I've ever written a positive word on JASO as they are in the middle tier, essentially a jobber for the solar space. The company make various feedstock products to the final product makers, while being dependent on the core technology and "root" feedstock polysilicon from the likes of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR). So it has a timing issue and margin compression issue. The company is facing lower final pricing of their products while having locked in longer term "commodity" pricing at higher prices. So its raw costs are not falling as fast as its own pricing.

The poly guys mentioned above and companies like Sun Power (NASDAQ: SPWRA), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) don't face these pressures as intensely, though that may not matter much today. STP reports on the 20th this month and I think it will give a clearer picture of the space. Meanwhile SPWRA keeps closing significant deals and FSLR reported the best and has little if any of the funding concerns. So for the leaders, it's a question of how low do they go before the long term positives catch up. Meanwhile, a few of the smaller shops like JASO are in a race against the credit crunch because they need to be able to renegotiate some of their longer-term input costs.

LDK and WFR are still companies that I feel are uniquely positioned, as both have a partial oligopoly status as polysilicon suppliers. In the $15's and lower, it's getting to the point where I may again trade around my core position and look for that beta pop on any significant Naz bounce. Also, this stock could move 50% higher and still be exceedingly cheap on almost any value criteria.

Obama stock: Portfolio plays from media to solar

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"It looks very much to me like there will be a rough few years ahead in the United States, whichever candidate wins; however, if Obama wins, we see opportunity in select stocks such as Microsoft, Time Warner and First Solar," says Martin Hutchinson in The Money Map Reporter.

"If Obama takes the White House, interest rates will surely rise. And the major beneficiaries of a policy of higher interest rates will be companies with large piles of cash, who will earn better returns on that money even as they discover cheaper opportunities to deploy it as prices of highly leveraged competitors crash.

"Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, with $23 billion of cash and negligible debt, should find many ways to deploy that capital and convert it into profitable business opportunities.

"Another sector that might benefit is media, which always finds it easier to sell products internationally when the United States has a popular "rock-star" president than it does when an unpopular president occupies the White House.

"You might look at Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), which is largely concentrated in visual and Internet media, without investments in the rapidly declining newspaper sector.

"Finally, you might look for a new energy company that could benefit from Obama's proposed $150 billion alternative energy fund.

"One possibility would be First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), though -- at 39 times earnings and with a market capitalization of greater than $20 billion -- the stock certainly isn't cheap, despite the company's global reach."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

First Solar, SunPower slashed to Sell at Goldman on oversupply concerns

Analyst Michael Molnar of Goldman Sachs took a harsh tone on the solar sector today, slashing his opinion to Sell on both First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA). Specifically, First Solar was slashed to Conviction Sell from Buy, while SunPower was dropped from Buy to Sell. In a note to clients, Molnar explained, "We strongly believe that SunPower and First Solar are two of the best solar companies in the world and that both will be part of the growing solar industry for years to come. However, in our view, even these companies will face headwinds in a market that is oversupplied with modules."

Specifically, "the risk of oversupply in the solar market will soon become a reality as considerably less generous demand subsidies take hold just as a wave of supply and tight financing hit the market," said Molnar. He added, "We believe that liberal subsidies of the past in markets like Germany and Spain are unlikely to be replicated in the future, given fears of their ultimate cost in a bad world economy."

As a whole, Goldman maintains a "cautious" view of the solar sector -- and the brokerage firm isn't alone. Piper Jaffray also weighed in on solar firms today, with a warning that higher credit costs could reduce average selling prices by an additional 6%. "The renewables industry depends on access to credit, and for the moment, the credit market remains closed," Piper stated. "We believe the cost of capital on renewable projects will increase due to higher bank financed interest rates, larger spreads, and more upfront fees." For 2009, Piper Jaffray predicts that companies' average selling prices will fall by 15% to 21%.

Continue reading First Solar, SunPower slashed to Sell at Goldman on oversupply concerns

Election bets: Advisors vote on McCain and Obama stocks

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

Which stocks would benefit from a victory by either Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama? To help investors sort through the sectors and stocks best positioned to benefit in a post-election environment, we posed this question to some of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Importantly, this is not a partisan report; each participating advisor has provided a favorite stock for both candidates, focused not on political preferences but unbiased stock analysis. Below we feature those stocks and ETFs that the advisors believe will be the winners depending on which candidate prevails.

McCain Stocks:

Roger Conrad - Comcast (NYSE: CCW)
Gregg Early - Elbit Systems (NASDAQ: ESLT)
Elliott Gue - Paladin Resources (Toronto: PDN)
Doug Fabian - Market Vectors Nuclear Energy (NYSE: NLR)
Vivian Lewis - Barclays (NYSE: BCS)
Bill Martin - CGG Veritas (NYSE: CGV)'
Yiannis Mostrous - Lonking Holdings (OTC: CIMHF)
Carla Pasternak - Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (NYSE: EVT)
Nate Pile - SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
John Reese - General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)
Nathan Slaughter - USEC (NYSE: USU)
Paul Tracy - Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR)
Kelley Wright - CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL)
Tom Vass - Molex (NASDAQ: MOLX)
Martin Hutchinson - Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK), EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG)

Obama Stocks:

Roger Conrad - SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR)
Gregg Early - AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV)
Elliott Gue - SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR)
Doug Fabian - Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)
Vivian Lewis - Cosan (NYSE: CZZ)
Bill Martin - Geron (NASDAQ: GERN)
Yiannis Mostrous - Dr. Reddy's (NYSE: RDY)
Carla Pasternak - Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP)
Nate Pile - Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)
John Reese - American Eagle (NYSE: AEO)
Nathan Slaughter - Fluor (NYSE: FLR)
Paul Tracy - Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (NYSE: GEX)
Kelley Wright - Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH)
Tom Vass - Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR)
Martin Hutchinson - Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)

First Solar (FSLR) soars on U.S. tax bill implications

FSLR logoFirst Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR - option chain) shares are rising today with other solar stocks after the US Senate approved a tax bill yesterday afternoon that extended $18 billion worth of tax credits to producers of alternative energy, including wind and solar power. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on FSLR.

FSLR opened this morning at $220.80. So far today the stock has hit a low of $218.02 and a high of $229.39. As of 12:45, FSLR is trading at $225.32, up $14.43 (6.8%). The chart for FSLR looks bullish and S&P gives FSLR a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $170 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just three weeks as long as FSLR is above $170 at October expiration. First Solar would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading First Solar (FSLR) soars on U.S. tax bill implications

Closing bell: Bears win, non-recession GDP fails to impress

You could have tossed a coin today and come up with the same predictions for if the market was going to close up or down. The 1.9% GDP report was lighter than the 2.2% estimates, but despite feeling like a recession, it isn't formally a recession. Equities headed south as did oil prices by more than $2.00 per barrel. Investors chose to focus on the bad data today and take profits. The bears came roaring back by the close.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA 11373.38 (-212.91)
S&P500 1266.96 (-17.30)
NASDAQ 2325.55 (-4.17)
10YR T-NOTE 3.979% (-0.069%)
KEY ANALYST DOWNGRADES

Akamai Technologies Inc.
(NASDAQ: AKAM) was today's big loser in tech, media, telecom. The company beat estimates last night but guidance was a few percentage points light and the investment community still demands growth here. Shares were down by 26% to a new 52-week low at $23.10 in the final minutes.

Continue reading Closing bell: Bears win, non-recession GDP fails to impress

BusinessWeek looks at solar stocks

With the high fuel prices over the past year, solar stocks have been making some nice gains. But there are some signs that they may not be as safe as they appear. Investors' interest in solar companies increased due to soaring crude futures, but there are some factors to take into account before investing money into solar.

The current BusinessWeek looks at stocks such as First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), SolarWorld and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), which have been facing increased volatility based on contract deal news or the lack thereof.

A major impact came in May, with speculation that Germany would lower subsidies given to companies and individuals who install alternative energy equipment. But the cut was not as deep as expected and stocks rebounded nicely.

Continue reading BusinessWeek looks at solar stocks

Option Update: First Solar (FSLR) July volatility flat at 70

First Solar (NASDAQ-FSLR) is recently up $2.06 to $247.02 in pre-open trading.

Calyon has a Buy rating and $345 price target on FSLR. Calyon says: "The company is not exposed to the German utility scale market (the destiny of which has now been determined for at least the next 2 to 3 years)."

FSLR July option implied volatility of 70 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: First Solar volatility at low end of range

First Solar (NYSE: FSLR) closed at $273.18 Wednesday.

Calyon says: "The German solar feed-in tariff (FIT) is under fire, as lawmakers are considering an accelerated digression that would reduce rates 25% by 2010 versus 15% under current law."

FSLR July option implied volatility of 58 is below its 26-week average of 73 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst downgrades: First Solar, Pride International, EnerSys

MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Solar, Pride International and EnerSys were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Friedman Billings downgraded First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to Underperform from Market Perform citing margin risk concerns, as the company aggressively pursues utility-scale projects in the US. The firm said risks are not reflected in share valuation near $300 and could be a source of disappointment but could also lead to downside EPS risk.
  • Wachovia said Pride International (NYSE: PDE) has the least potential EPS upside vs. peers given the company has contracted the highest percentage of its floater days into 2012E. Additionally, the firm views a takeout by Seadrill as unlikely. Shares were cut to Underperform from Market Perform.
  • Merriman downgraded shares of EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the strong Q4 results were driven by a one-time benefit from lead procurement mechanics and that data does not support the company's sustained margin expansion story.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Citigroup lowered Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) to Hold from Buy.
  • UBS downgraded Nucor (NYSE: NUE) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.
  • The Airlines Sector was cut by Soleil to Neutral from Outperform.

Option Update; First Solar options active as shares approach record high

First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) is recently up $24.10 to $275.70. FSLR is a manufacturer of solar modules with an advanced thin semiconductor process. FSLR call option volume of 27,209 contracts compares to put volume of 32,567 contracts. FSLR April option implied volatility is at 75, May is at 89; above its 26-week average of 74 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst initiations: Analog semiconductors, VITA and FSLR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Analog Semiconductors, OrthoVita and First Solar were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Morgan Stanley initiated Analog Semiconductors with an In Line rating. The firm assumed National Semiconductor Corp (NYSE: NSM) with an Overweight rating and $26 target and is the firm's top pick; Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) and Linear Tech (NASDAQ: LLTC) were initiated with Equal Weight ratings and a $32 target and $34 target, respectively.
  • Barrington believes OrthoVita (NASDAQ: VITA) is the market share and technological leader of the biomaterials market. The firm assumed shares with an Outperform rating and $4 target.
  • Canaccord Adams believes First Solar's (NASDAQ: FSLR) management and business model are among the best of any PV company and that execution has led to strong profitability plus a successful aggressive capacity ramp. Shares were started with a Buy rating and $325 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley initiated Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) and Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) with Equal Weight ratings and targets of $40 and $15, and also initiated McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) and Burger King (NYSE: BKC) with Overweight ratings and targets of $65 and $34.
  • Lehman initiated Alcoa (NYSE: AA) with an Overweight rating and $44 target.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 03:45 AM

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