Tuesday morning, food-producer ConAgra (CAG) announced that its first-quarter net income fell to 33 cents per share, compared to 37 cents per share a year ago. The earnings were also short of the consensus estimate, which called for earnings of 39 cents per share. The food firm blames the results on tighter competition, inflation and the sluggish financial situation.

Breaking the numbers down a bit, the company's consumer food segment saw sales drop 2% to $1.82 billion. This facet of CAG's business comprises roughly 65% of the company's revenue. While this segment was making hay while more consumers were eating at home, a drop thanks to discounting in frozen food, table spreads and popcorn led to the poor performance.

The U.S. enjoys a sweet spot when it comes to food production. We not only are able to supply our own needs but export are large quantity of grains throughout the world.

India, on the other hand is a net importer of basic food stuffs. As a consequence, India's wholesale food inflation rate has soared to 17.4% in the week ended February 13. This is after a rise of 17.9% the previous week.

Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. Moreover, there are few more-favorable global trends than food production, and with the above in mind, Agrium is worth a review.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is the No. 1 producer and seller of fertilizers in North America, including nitrogen, as well as potash and phosphate products.

The company has an 8-million-ton nutrient production capacity, but production is only half the equation: AGU also has more than 400 retail outlets in the U.S. and South America -- the back-end side of the revenue equation.

The top U.S. retailer of crop supplies, Agrium's products are also sold in Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Asia. Analysts really like AGU's plan to expand, and hopefully double, this $2 billion revenue stream within five years, stemming from emerging market demand. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AGU are $8.21/$9.53.

Readers of this space know that the preferred tack is to look for well-capitalized companies with competitive advantages in sectors with secular, long-term growth trends. One select sector has been oil/oil services, and another right near the top has been fertilizer producers, primarily Potash, Mosaic, and Agrium, first reviewed in December 2007-January 2008.

To be sure, the sector has been bid-up, as a wider community discovers the value of fertilizer and companion products amid the likely substantial increase in global food demand in the decade ahead.

Too late to get in on a fertilizer play? Hardly. P/Es are higher, so entry point is key, but with the above in mind, here's a revised review of the fertilizer producers, with the updated Sell/Stop Loss levels. They're ranked by risk, with the top stock, POT, being the lowest risk.

Readers of this space know that one of my preferred sectors is agriculture due to the boom in food consumption created by emerging market economic growth. Real incomes are rising in nations in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, and with it, per capita food consumption is increasing, a trend that benefits Archer Daniels Midland.

Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) is one of the world's largest processors of oilseeds, corn and wheat.

The frenzy that accompanied the financial world's realization that bio could represent a renewable energy form, for some energy users, appears to be tapering (thankfully). Still, although the bloom is off the biofuel rose, the key driver here remains in-place: commodities for food use. Demand for wheat, corn, soybean and other food basics is likely to remain strong through at least the end of 2009, propelled by the aforementioned emerging market growth.

Most analysts see accelerating earnings growth on strong corn and soybean demand, with pricing power. Further, given the vagaries of the energy business, it's worth underscoring that ADM is foremost a large, vertically-integrated food commodity company (wheat, corn, soybeans). The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for ADM are $2.84/$3.24.

The risks? Declining disposable income is expected to pressure U.S. consumer food budgets in 2008, and analysts expect a slowdown in U.S. revenue from food sources, something that will hurt ADM's domestic results, offset by a superior international performance.

The First Call mean rating for ADM is: Buy [10 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $48 [high: $60, low: $39].

Stock Analysis: Archer Daniels Midland is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from ADM's shares. I'd consider a Sell / Stop Loss at $31.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) is worth an evaluation.

Deere, one of the two largest manufacturers of farm equipment in world and a leader in construction and lawn care equipment, is well-positioned to take advantage of several, long-term, global trends. Chief among these are strong international agricultural and international construction/building activity and an expanding international market for consumer equipment sales.

Solid, enduring growth in international agricultural markets is the standout fundamental here, with the segment's revenue growth expected to offset slumps in equipment sales for the cooling U.S. housing market. Other positives: DE's costs remain under control, its balance sheet is strong, and agriculture equipment market conditions suggest the company has modest pricing power. Further, increased use of renewable fuels is likely to add to demand for DE's equipment, assuming at least one renewable fuel gains traction as a practical, affordable alternative to petroleum-based energy.

With the markets still in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind Smithfield Foods is worth an evaluation.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is the world's largest pork processor and hog producer. The company's products include fresh pork and processed meats sold under the Packerland, John Morrell, Lykes, Patrick Cudahy, and Smithfield Premium names.

Analysts expect Smithfield's F2008 revenue to increase 15-25% after a modest increase in F2007.

Meanwhile, beef margins are expected to widen, offsetting likely narrower hog margins. An improved product mix, including an expansion of value-added products, also has gladdened analysts' hearts.

Agriculture and agriculture services stocks are likely to remain star performers in the immediate years ahead, given the agriculture boom in emerging markets, and one preferred company worth an evaluation is Canada-based Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT).

Potash is an integrated producer of fertilizer, phosphate, and nitrogen, which is used in fertilizer and in industrial/consumer products.

Analysts really like POT's 12.9-million-ton potash production capacity, which represents an impressive 20% of the world's potash capacity.

Further, as one might sense with an emerging-market agriculture boom, sales have been robust, margins are solid, and the company has some price power: it's likely that price hikes will follow again in 2008, on top of price increases in 2007. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for POT are $3.23/$5.50.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on raw material and labor costs. A global economic slowdown would also obviously hurt POT's results. POT shares have also had a remarkable run in 2007, rising more than 200%: shares are vulnerable to large-dollar pull-backs, but those will be mild if POT continues to exceed EPS expectations.

Stock Analysis: Potash Corp. is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from POT shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $85.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.