The loans that got us into this mess were generally the first to fall. Variable rate mortgages written without documentation for people with sketchy credit histories shocked nobody as their slide became an avalanche. But, the good stuff is starting to follow. An increasing amount of fixed rate mortgages offered to borrowers with solid credit histories are feeling their ways to foreclosure. Blame unemployment for this one. When people can't work, it gets pretty hard to pay the mortgage.

Fixed rate, high quality mortgages had a foreclosure a year ago. Last quarter, it jumped to 33%, according to a Mortgage Bankers Association report. As this happened, the amount of homeowners behind on their payments or in foreclosure just set another record high ... for the ninth month in a row. Subprime mortgages are headed in the other direction. Low quality adjustable rate mortgages are now 16% of new foreclosures -- compared to 35% last year. And, more than 18% of Federal Housing Administration loans are anywhere from one payment behind to in foreclosure, with California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida worst off: together, they accounted for 44% of new foreclosures.

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According to RealtyTrac, the number of homeowners facing foreclosure dropped during October, thanks in part to foreclosure prevention programs that helped borrowers. RealtyTrac stated that more than 332,000 households (one in every 385 homes) were recipients of either a notice of default or a trustee's sale. This number is 3% lower than September, making October the third-straight month with a drop in the number of homeowners facing foreclosure. As for homes actually repossessed, the number dropped to 77,000 in October from 88,000 in September.

RealtyTrac noted that one reason for the lower number of foreclosures is new state programs that require a bank to try and work with the homeowner before seizing property. In addition, some lenders are staving off foreclosures by evaluating which of their close-to-default borrowers may qualify for the new federal loan modification program.

If you've become comfortable with the current state of the housing market ... don't. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Bank of America's Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC) say there's still plenty of risk in the housing market.

Alec Phillips, the head of Goldman's Washington office, said, "The risk of renewed home price declines remains significant." His "working assumption" is a drop of between 5% and 10% by the middle of next year.

People not only feel poorer, they are poorer. Personal wealth will continue to decline in 2010, as home prices fall even further, fueled by a wave of 7 million homes that will go into foreclosure in the next 12 to 18 months. And foreclosure rates will remain above historical norms well beyond that.

More foreclosures mean more downward price pressure in the housing market. And homeowners will experience a commensurate loss of wealth as the value of their homes decline. And this is on top of all the money that had previously been lost in the stock market -- as much as 40% of accumulated consumer wealth.

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Unemployment is at 9.8%, and it's expected to clear 10% early next year. Then, we have the specter of a jobless recovery with which to contend. "Full employment" is often considered to be an unemployment rate of 4% to 5%, but it could be a while before we get there. The last downturn, following the dotcom bust, resulted in a peak unemployment rate of 6.3% in 2003 ... and we're already well past that.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

It has been a great quarter for the economy, hasn't it? I mean, the economic recovery is in full swing . . . right? The Dow has eclipsed 10,000 for the first time in a year and there is absolutely no hint of the doldrums from which the economy has emerged. Not so fast, my friend.

According to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes, 937,840 homes were foreclosed on during the past quarter -- a record number. That is a lot of foreclosures -- 5% more than in the second quarter and 23% more than a year ago. In fact, this means that one in every 136 homes were in foreclosure. Rick Sharga from RealtyTrac told CNNMoney: "They [the past quarter] were the worst three months of all time."

After four months of gains in existing home sales, July saw a dip of 2.7 percent in home resales, a slight speed bump for the recovering housing market.

While today's news does cast a small shadow on the hopes of a housing rebound, there are still plenty of reasons to think that the housing market has bottomed out.

It's clear that we are in the midst of a credit bubble that has burst. The fallout is being felt throughout the economy but is most prominent in credit card defaults, which are rising and will continue to rise, according the leading analysts.

Two of the biggest credit card issuers are getting clobbered. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) saw its defaults rise to 14.54% in August from 13.81% in July. Citigroup (NYSE: C) saw defaults rise to 12.14% in August from 10.03% in July. Following close behind was JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) at 8.76%, up from 7.92%.

The U.S. Treasury Department says that 6 million Americans face foreclosure in the next three years.

This number is shocking. What is being done to stem this bloodletting? The Treasury has a program to rework existing mortgages for people who qualify. So far only 360,165 people have had their mortgages reduced through August, up from 235,247 in July.

The Treasury's program is called the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). The program pays cash to servicers to reduce mortgage payments to 31% of a borrowers income.

Unlike Commissioner Gordon who can send out the Bat signal to call his helpmate against crime, there is nothing investors can do to summon aid in times of stress. They have to go it alone. But they can be armed with intelligence that helps. Here are few of the most prominent data points that will make a difference for all stocks, a macro perspective that should make navigating the stock market highway a little easier.

However, taken on a one-time basis, these aren't going to solve the mystery that is the market. Rather, data has to show a trend before it can be used. Even then, a trend stops and another begins. So even though the trend can be your friend, it can just as easily turn and become your enemy. As they used to say on Hill Street Blues: Be careful out there.

Are things getting better on the mortgage front? From some of the recent data just published the answer is no.

In July, foreclosure filings, defined as a default notice, bank repossession, or auction sale, were up 7%. and 32% over a year earlier. This is according to Realty Trac's U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. One in every 355 homeowners had received a foreclosure filing.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the demand for homes is real because they are affordable.

Sometimes the misdirection in the media's interpretation of the mortgage/foreclosure market simply drives me up a wall. Take Thursday's fret story, "Loans That Looked Easy Pose Threats to Recovery," in The New York Times. This one is played big online, much bigger than another story, "Signs of Life as Sales of New Homes Improve." The gist of the big story? Option rate ARMs are going to crimp anything good that could happen from the housing recovery.

But you know what? The amazing thing here is the number of option ARMs that they say we are in trouble on: 500,000 homes. Sorry, I know that number is meant to scare people, but it is truly small, especially when you consider that 17 million homes traded during the period from 2005 to the first quarter of 2007, when the reckless lending set in. Given the charges we have taken in the banking system, the reserves we have, the bottom in housing and the robust market we have -- and it isn't just for first-time homebuyers, and it isn't just for low-dollar homes, despite the impressions made by the media -- you have to take this worry and throw it out.

Homebuilder confidence hit a 1 year high today, providing another sign that the worst of the housing melt down may have passed.

The housing market started to crumble back in 2006, and since that time foreclosures and falling home prices have hit the economy hard, and played a major role in the recession that has effected millions. Today the The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index climbed to 18, the highest level that it has been since June 2008.

Home foreclosure filings in the United States hit a record 1.9 million in the first half of 2009, according to RealtyTrac –-- on more than 1.5 million properties. Again, unemployment is one of the primary culprits, as a lack of income makes it pretty tough to bring a loan at risk of default up to date. The number of filings is up 9% from the second half of 2008 and up almost 15% from the same period last year.

Last month, foreclosure filings were up 5% relative to May and up 33% from June 2008. The month's action was the third highest on record, and it was the fourth month in a row in which there were filings on more than 300,000 properties.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the endless worries will prove bogus, and jobs creation could spur a real lift.

Alt-A. Endless bank foreclosures. Commercial real estate. These are the big three worries that will not be killed by data, rigor or common sense, no matter what happens.

Doesn't it occur to anyone that there already should have been a big spike in commercial real estate losses by now? That the decline in the economy has lasted long enough that it should have manifested itself? Doesn't anyone think that there should have been a big commercial real estate bad-debt bump at a Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) or a JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) or a Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take)?