foreign exchange posts
FeedPosted Apr 16th 2008 5:07PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Federal Reserve
The battle of psychologies regarding the dollar continues in the currency market.
The
dollar fell to an all-time low of $1.5979 versus the
euro Wednesday, after an E.U. inflation report indicated accelerating inflation on the continent, reducing the likelihood of a European Central Bank interest rank cut at its next meeting.
Further, a below-consensus, March 2008 U.S. housing stats report and an in-line March 2008 U.S. inflation report also weighed on the dollar: each means that the U.S Federal Reserve will not feel inordinate pressure to pause in its interest-rate-reduction cycle to stimulate the anemic U.S. economy. That's dollar bearish, because, all other factors being equal, money tends to flow to higher-interest-rate currencies and away from lower-interest currencies.
Continue reading Dollar falls to record low versus euro after EU inflation accelerates
Posted Apr 10th 2008 4:11PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, China, Politics, Commodities, Oil, Agriculture
China let the yuan rise to a record level versus the dollar Friday,
Bloomberg News reported, in a sign Beijing may be modifying its currency stance in order to regain control of inflation.
The yuan strengthened to 6.9907 yuan versus the dollar Friday, its strongest level since the Chinese Government moved from a fixed or "dollar pegged" currency rate to a system that limits the yuan's currency appreciation to about 5% per year.
China has kept the yuan artificially low -- or not set by free-market, foreign exchange forces -- in order to stimulate economic growth and protect its young economy. The low yuan keeps the cost of Chinese exports low -- a major factor in both China's record trade surplus with the United States and its surging manufacturing export revenue. Critics charge that the low yuan gives China an unfair advantage versus foreign manufacturers: many of these producers, among others, argue that the yuan would appreciate to 5 or even 4.5 yuan to the dollar if allowed to float freely.
Continue reading China lets yuan rise versus dollar to help contain inflation
Posted Apr 10th 2008 9:15AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Federal Reserve

The
euro hit an all-time of $1.5915 versus the
dollar Thursday, only to become subject to an increasingly rare event in currency markets these days - - a dollar rally.
That's right: you read correctly. The dollar
rallied, getting off the deck, as it were, from its record-low versus the euro to gain more than 1 cent for the day to trade at $1.5741 late Thursday.
Trading is likely to be calm to inert heading into Friday, due to the G-7 meeting in Washington of the world's major central bankers and finance ministers.
What inspired the dollar's rally? Independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks the currency markets interpreted Thursday's lower-than-expected 357,000
U.S. initial weekly unemployment claims as a strong point for the ailing U.S. economy. That fact, combined with the belief that the previous week's claims may have been inflated, due to the earlier Easter holiday, sent traders into buy-dollar mode.
Continue reading Euro hits record $1.59 versus dollar, then falters
Posted Mar 13th 2008 10:48AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts

The dollar plunged to a 13-year low versus Japan's yen Thursday, falling below 100 yen to 99.77 yen before recovering somewhat, after the markets received work that the a Carlyle Group fund had moved closer to collapse,
Bloomberg News reported Thursday.
The
dollar also fell against the world's other, major currencies. The dollar fell about one-half cent to $1.5587 versus the
euro, about 1 cent to $2.0350 versus the
British pound, and about one-half cent to $1.0088 versus the
Swiss franc.
The dollar did recover slightly against the yen to 100.12 yen later in the Asia session, but the plunge to 99.77 represented the dollar's lowest level against the yen since October 1995. During that period of dollar depreciation, the Bank of Japan, Japan's central bank, intervened to support the dollar. Thus far, there's little indication the central bank will do the same today, independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Thursday.
Continue reading Dollar falls below 100 yen to lowest level since 1995
Posted Mar 10th 2008 4:02PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Federal Reserve
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he's "concerned" about the euro's appreciation - - his most direct comments since the euro's rise to record levels above $1.50 versus the dollar,
Bloomberg News reported Monday.The
euro rose about one-half cent to $1.5407 versus the
dollar before retreating to $1.5351 in Monday afternoon trading.
``We're concerned about excessive exchange-rate moves in the present circumstances,'' Trichet
told Bloomberg News in Basel, Switzerland Monday. It's the first time Trichet has specifically expressed worry about the currency since November 2007, when he said he opposed "brutal" moves.
Amid a U.S. economic slowdown and U.S. Federal Reserve efforts to stimulate the world's largest economy with interest rate cuts, the ECB has maintained a status-quo monetary policy, keeping its benchmark refinance rate a 4%. That sand-pat policy has contributed to a flight out of the dollar and into the euro, which increases the cost of euro-zone exports to the U.S., if European companies raise prices to compensate for the dollar's depreciation. The euro has risen more than 5% versus the dollar this year, and is up more than 90% since 2001.
Forex Analysis: Trichet's comments came as a surprise. A hawk, Trichet has heretofore underscored the need for monetary policy discipline to contain euro-zone inflation. Further, Trichet has sided with the monetarists' school that argues that foreign exchange rate changes should be market-determined, so long as they are gradual. In addition, the ECB has never intervened in the currency markets to weaken the euro, and last intervened to strengthen it in 2000. No change is expected in that policy given Monday's comments, barring a sudden, large fall in the dollar / rise in the euro.
Posted Mar 4th 2008 10:55AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Federal Reserve
The dollar fell for the sixth consecutive day against the yen and approached a record low against the euro, as traders increased their dollar-short positions on the belief the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 75 basis points to stimulate the sluggish U.S. economy,
Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.
The
dollar deteriorated about one-quarter cent to $1.5220 against the
euro and fell about 0.31 yen to 103.15
yen in Monday morning trading. The dollar also fell about one-third cent to $1.9870 against the
British pound, and about one-half cent to $1.0356 against the
Swiss franc.
The dollar's fall continued despite growing concern in Europe that the euro is rising too much -- to levels that would hurt European exports. A rising euro increases the price of European exports to the U.S., if exporters pass along the added cost. On Tuesday European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters a strong dollar is in the interests of the United States.
However, to-date, the ECB has resisted undertaking efforts to help stem the euro's rise, keeping its benchmark short-term interest rate at 4%. The ECB is expect to keep the rate the same when it meets Thursday to discuss monetary policy.
Continue reading U.S. dollar could decline another 5-10% this year
Posted Feb 27th 2008 3:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Bad News

The dollar fell against the world's major currencies Wednesday -- and to a record-low versus the euro -- as widening fears of a U.S. recession prompted investors and traders to exit dollar-denominated assets.
The dollar fell about 1.5 cents to $1.5145 versus the euro before gaining back some ground to $1.5125 Wednesday at mid-day, after a series of data points suggested the U.S. economy continues to slow, which will invariably prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further to stimulate growth.
The dollar also declined about one-cent to $1.9907 versus the British pound, and fell about 1 yen to 106.35 yen versus Japan's yen.
Independent currency trader Andrew Resnick, formerly of Next Capital of New York, told BloggingStocks Wednesday the factors that have led to a three-year decline in the dollar have accelerated in the past week.
"We have an oil price above $100 per barrel with investors piling into it as an inflation hedge. That hurts the dollar two ways. It takes money out of U.S. assets and by boosting oil's price, it increases the trade deficit, which is bearish for the dollar," Resnick said. "Also, the January durable goods order report was bearish, which means the Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] will cut rates once, maybe twice more, which will lead investors to choose higher-interest-rate currencies."
Continue reading U.S. dollar falls to record low vs. euro on recession fears, $100 oil
Posted Feb 26th 2008 6:12PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Western Union (WU), Stocks to Buy
Western Union used to transmit telegrams like: Dear George, my office authorized a transfer of up to fifty thousand dollars to the Bailey Building & Loan STOP Then the advent of the telephone substantially reduced telegram traffic STOP
Next came the Internet and e-mail, which not only reduced telegram traffic to a crawl, it also decreased hard-copy letter writing, as the U.S. Postal Service will confirm.
Since that time The Western Union Company (NYSE: WU) has focused on its consumer money transfer service, or moneygrams, and the results have been impressive. Analysts expect 11-14% revenue growth in FY 2008 on higher transaction fees and foreign exchange fees.
Continue reading With Western Union, think moneygrams, not telegrams
Posted Feb 20th 2008 2:25PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, China, Commodities, Oil

China's central bank let the yuan appreciate slightly Tuesday night to 7.1452 yuan to the dollar from 7.1580 yuan, China's
Xinhua News Agency announced Wednesday. The report also provided a hint regarding the pace of future currency appreciation.
"We will further improve monetary policy controls, continue to use quantitative measures, widen usage of price-related policy tools and increase innovation in monetary policy measures,'' the central bank said in the report, without elaborating, Bloomberg News reported.
Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, has said repeatedly in recent months that the yuan rate would gradually reach a "balanced" level and help bring equilibrium to the balance of payments.
At issue: The yuan
China is facing pressure on a number of fronts to appreciate its currency. Both the United States and Europe would like China, which maintains the yuan's rate in an artificially low trading band, to float its currency or at least let it come close to reflecting a fair-value rate in the years ahead. China keeps the yuan artificially low to reduce the cost of goods exported, which boosts exports sales. Both the U.S. and Europe say that rate gives China an unnatural competitive advantage in trade. China counters that it needs a low-valued yuan to increase wealth and protect young sectors of its developing economy.
Continue reading China strengthens yuan slightly, hints at currency policy revision
Posted Jan 9th 2008 11:25AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Other Issues, Federal Reserve

In the "counter-intuitive thesis of the month" category, Morgan Stanley's global head of currency research Stephen Jen is predicting a rise in the dollar during a possible U.S. economic slowdown,
Forbes reported Wednesday.Jen said his research shows that, historically, the dollar tends to rise when the U.S. economy is either growing 1.5% a year or contracting by 1.5% or more a year, and Jen is predicting that the dollar's 2008 performance will be similar to 2005, when the dollar climbed 10% against the largest European currencies.
On Wednesday, the dollar was higher against the world's major currencies, improving 0.21 cents to $1.4684 versus the euro, 0.50 yen to 108.39 versus Japan's yen, and improving 1.35 cents to $1.9596 versus the British pound.
Andrew Resnick, independent currency trader, told BloggingStocks Wednesday that Jen's thesis is plausible.
Continue reading Analyst says dollar could rise despite slow-growth U.S. economy
Posted Jan 7th 2008 6:37PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Federal Reserve
Stung by near-record oil prices, a large trade deficit, a federal budget deficit, sluggish economic growth, and inadequate domestic savings, the U.S. dollar has taken a beating in foreign exchange markets versus the world's other major currencies (euro, British pound, Swiss franc, yen).
Further, the dollar, which has fallen about 10% versus Japan's yen since January 2006, is now approaching levels that may draw the attention of more than just currency traders. The
dollar traded Monday afternoon at about 108.96
yen, up 0.36 yen.
Traders eye BOJIndependent currency trader Andrew Resnick told Bloggingstocks that the currency markets are beginning to sense that the strengthening yen versus the dollar may draw the attention of the
Bank of Japan, Japan's central bank. A strengthening currency can make that nation's investments more-attractive to investors, but it also makes that nation's exports more expensive - - if exporters increase prices to compensate for the counter currency's reduced buying power.
Continue reading As dollar falls vs. the yen, traders eye Bank of Japan
Posted Jan 7th 2008 3:52PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, China

China, which has kept its currency, the
yuan, artificially low in order to keep the cost of its exports low and promote a domestic economic boom as its nation develops, is finding that the strategy has a negative effect: domestic inflation.
Unlike market-based currencies characteristic of the foreign exchange, China's government sets the yuan's value -- allowing it to trade in a tight band, currently at about or near 7.2730 yuan to the U.S. dollar. China argues that the yuan/dollar peg is necessary to promote economic growth and protect young, developing businesses and sectors.
And the strategy is working: China has registered +10% GDP growth for more than four years; has the world's third-largest economy, in purchasing power parity terms, behind the European Union and the United States; and has generated massive trade surpluses, particularly against the U.S.
Still, the U.S. counters that the peg keeps China's goods at artificially low prices and hence gives China's companies an artificial competitive advantage in trade. China has turned aside those and other U.S. concerns, particularly the trade deficit, arguing that if the U.S. wishes to lower its trade deficit, its citizens should save more and consume less, and the U.S. government should eliminate its budget deficit.
Continue reading China learned that yuan-dollar peg is a two-edged sword
Posted Dec 28th 2007 5:04PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Economic Data, Federal Reserve
The dollar's share of global foreign currency reserves dropped to a record low in the third quarter (Q3),
Bloomberg News reported Friday, citing International Monetary Fund data.
The dollar comprised 63.8% of reserves at the end of September 2007, down from 65% at the end of June 2007, the IMF said.
Meanwhile, the euro's slice of the reserve pie increased during the same period to 26.4% from 25.5%. The British pound's portion rose to 4.7% from 4.6%.
Dollar doldrums Analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, said a constellation of factors is prompting governments to reduce dollar-based foreign exchange reserves, chief of which is the dollar's decline versus the euro, pound, and other major currencies.
Continue reading Dollar's share of currency reserves falls in Q3, IMF says
Posted Nov 20th 2007 11:18AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Bad News, Federal Reserve
The
dollar hit a new low against the
euro Tuesday, with the euro trading above $1.48 for the first time, on word the Gulf Cooperation Council was debating whether to keep its dollar pegs.
Currency Trader Andrew Resnick, formerly of Next Capital of New York, told BloggingStocks Tuesday that the elimination of dollar pegs will add to pressure on the dollar.
"The pegs support the dollar to a degree, but the real factors here are the slowness of growth in the U.S. economy, and the U.S. trade deficit," Resnick said. "Until we see those two factors change, the trend is likely to remain dollar lower, across the board."
Continue reading Dollar falls to new low against euro
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