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New U.S. export: labor

Now that it's reached 10.2%, the unemployment rate is higher than it's been in 26 years. That puts plenty of people on the hunt for work, especially since the unemployment rate doesn't reflect everyone who's been affected by the recession, such as those who have been unemployed too long or who are underemployed. Lacking alternatives at home, more Americans are heading overseas to find their fortunes weather the storm.

The number of people looking for international work through Manpower Inc. (MAN), the largest staffing firm in the country, has increased over the past six months. Half a year ago, Jeff Joerres, the company CEO, said that only a few dozen were looking for work outside the U.S. Now, it's up to 500. He tells USA Today, "It is a phenomenon we haven't had before."

Continue reading New U.S. export: labor

Yen-carry trade and sub-prime mortgage market going away

Two providers of excess liquidity to the international and U.S. economy are going away.

The yen-carry trade, where an investor borrows at very low Japanese interest rates and invests the proceeds in higher yielding credit or equity instruments around the world, is unwinding.

The only way this trade works is if the investor does not hedge the currency, or against appreciation of the yen. If the investor hedges his yen position, the cost of the hedge means the investor will not make any money. Therefore, as the yen begins to appreciate, a vicious cycle begins to emerge: less and less yen-carry trades make money so more and more investors need to liquidate their position and convert their money back into yen to repay the loan. While predicted for years, it finally appears to be happening.

The second big area of excess liquidity also took a shot to the head yesterday. New Century Financial (NYSE: NEW), a subprime mortgage lender, collapsed over 70% as reports hit the news wires that it's financial backer was pulling the plug on the company. New Century closed at $4.65 yesterday, down from a 2005 high of around $65.

With two areas of excess liquidity coming to an end, this should reduce concerns of too much speculative money floating around the global economy. This means world's central bankers, especially in the U.S., can feel more comfortable about not raising rates anymore. This will bode well for the U.S. market once this correction is over.

Hola amigos! Recepción al Wal-Mart!

The title reads: Hello friends! Welcome to Wal-Mart!

I posted an article on Monday January 15, addressing Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and I suggested some ideas for it to consider in pursuit of future growth. I don't honestly think Wal-Mart will hear about my ideas, much less implement them but I have fun writing this stuff anyway. A motivated fellow we'll call Jack sent me some suggestions of his own. I think Jack has some good ideas so I'd like to share them with you.


Continue reading Hola amigos! Recepción al Wal-Mart!

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 04:21 PM

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