Fortune -- which shares parent Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) with BloggingStocks -- provides a clue about how big of a write-down Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) needs to take in order to account accurately for its Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) portfolio. By my estimate, that write-down could total roughly $4 billion -- wiping out 20% of Lehman's $20 billion in capital.

How so? I calculated $4.07 billion worth of write-downs -- $1.63 billion of the write-off is from worthless BB and below rated CDOs and another $2.44 billion is from the remaining CDOs that are worth about half their stated value. This is based on Fortune's report that Lehman has $6.5 billion worth of CDOs. The 25% that are rated BB or below it believes are worthless. The remaining 75% it figures are worth 50 cents on the dollar.

But wait, there's more. Lehman has $39 billion worth of Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBSs) which have lost value. A key index has declined in the last quarter -- but I don't know how much. Assuming the decline was 25%, Lehman would need to write down an additional $9.8 billion. If Lehman needed to take the $9.8 billion write-down plus the $4 billion for the CDOs, its capital would decline 75%.

When I think about how Lehman is not the only one to hold these dodgy securities, it becomes clear that our financial system is resting on a very shaky foundation.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

When will Lehman take $4 billion in CDO write-downs? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Jun 2008 09:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When I first saw that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) made it onto Fortune magazine's list of the Top 20 Most Admired Companies, I thought someone had dosed my coffee. But after refreshing my browser about a dozen times, I realized that I wasn't seeing things.

What's funny is that the editors of Fortune seemed just as surprised that the world's largest retailer was tied for 19th place with PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE:PEP) on the rankings devised from a survey by the magazine and the Hay Group of 3,322 executives, directors, and securities analysts.

"By most measures the retail giant had a rotten year: its first quarterly earnings decline in a decade, a skittish stock price, and a string of PR disasters (including a marketing chief who allegedly had an affair with a subordinate)," Fortune says, adding that its continued place on the role of honor "may be thanks in some measure to its new green strategy that includes everything from cutting back on packaging to pushing more energy-efficient light bulbs."

I don't agree. The positive publicity from Wal-Mart's environmental initiatives has been more than outweighed by the huge amount of negative publicity it gets for almost everything else. Ask the typical Wal-Mart shopper about the energy efficient light bulbs and I'll bet they have no idea what you are talking about.

Continue reading How does Wal-Mart wind up on Fortune's admired companies list?

How does Wal-Mart wind up on Fortune's admired companies list? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Mar 2007 17:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the first time, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was named to Fortune magazine's most admired companies. The annual Fortune survey asked businesspeople to vote for the companies they admired most, from any industry. Apple ranked 7th overall and 2nd within the computer company segment, behind International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM).

This survey ranked companies based on eight key attributes of reputation: innovation, people management, use of corporate assets, social responsibility, quality of management, financial soundness, long term investment and quality of products/services. Apple's industry rank was all 1's and 2's for everything, but social responsibility. Maybe its red iPod Nano Aids effort with Bono and U2 didn't cut muster with the voters?

Don't expect to see Apple leaving this list in years to come as Apple's competitors have watched it upend industries from computers to music, and now it has one of the most anticipated products in years -- the iPhone.

Apple breaks into Forbes' top ten most admired companies originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Mar 2007 16:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

At the end of last year I selected The Home Depot (NYSE:HD) as one of my seven picks for the coming year in the post You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! At the time I took notice of it my thoughts were reinforced by an article in Money Magazine by Michael Zivy, who also recommended Lowes as worthy of investment consideration.

Now, just over two weeks later, I have read many more similar reports touting the stock. No less than James Cramer of TheStreet.com, Barron's, Fortune, and more recently BusinessWeek wrote it up after the abrupt resignation of CEO Bob Nardelli. I am sure I have seen it discussed in other places too, but the point has been made. A crowd within the investment world has taken an interest in Home Depot stock. No such crowds have been reported in the actual stores.

Which is more important to the success of the company: more customers or more Wall Street players? In my own analysis I was looking at financial data and not trying to place any bets on when there might be a large positive swing in customer traffic. Are the investment world gurus (I'm not there yet) betting the stock rises because they are predicting more traffic, or is the stock going to rise in the short run even in the absence of customers simply because they say so? Short term the prognosticators do have an impact. Not only does the word on the street affect stock prices, but there are those that are leading global investment houses and placing real bets the stock will rise, so it must.

In the long run it will be customers and cash flow that will impact the stock price. And management decisions and the macro economy will impact customer flow. But, when I see a crowd I usually go the other way so I take pause to revisit my thinking on the subject of Home Depot. I am not fond of crowds but when they gather it is often worth knowing why. In this case I think my reasoning still has merit, so I will write this off to everyone jumping on the bandwagon. I do not claim to be the first one on the bandwagon, and do not know now when and if I will jump off. I will not be changing my seven picks during the year, so I guess I'm going along for the ride.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Home Depot is getting very crowded originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Jan 2007 17:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) topped Fortune's list of the best places to work. This is something that investors should note because a happy workforce is a productive workforce. Google gives workers generous perks like free meals, a swimming spa and on-site doctors along with shuttle-bus service from local train stations and -- get this -- free haircuts and on-site notaries. Of course, Googlers need to work hard to enjoy this largesse.

SC Johnson & Son, Container Store and Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), QUALCOMM Inc.(NASDAQ:QCOM) and Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) were among the companies that also made the cut.

Another company I wanted to point out on the list that many people outside the Northeast may not have heard of is Wegmans Food Markets. The level of service that you get by walking into one of the chain's supermarkets is unbelievable. When is the last time a cashier at a grocery store asked you whether you wanted your bags packed heavy or light? There are also great prepared meals. Wegmans prices for run-of-the-mill stuff such as milk or bread are competitive.

This list is a very clever marketing promotion for Fortune magazine. What company wouldn't want to be noticed for treating their workers well? Moreover, what company wouldn't want to crow about it?

Google tops list of Fortune's best places to work; Investors should care originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 08 Jan 2007 08:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.