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Avon encounters resistance near $33

Tech talk: Avon Product, Inc.'s (NYSE: AVP) restructuring is paying-off, but the stock has run into technical resistance at/near $33, so I'm not recommending the purchase of additional shares at this time.

Those investors who purchased AVP when first recommended on May 6, 2009 at a price of $23.12 should hold their shares.

Continue reading Avon encounters resistance near $33

Company nicknames: Neiman Marcus -- If you have to ask about price ...

This post is one in a series on prominent company nicknames. See all 25, and share your thoughts and memories about Needless Markup below in the comments.

Neiman Marcus may be the most successful upscale retail department chain that selected shoppers love to hold a grudge against.

The chain caters to primarily female, upper-income and upper-middle shoppers, and features designer lines that rival boutique (and beyond) price levels.

Further, while some of the products are decidedly exclusive, some are not or appear to not be, according to shoppers, but the prices of these items remain in the stratosphere, and it is for this reason that the store was tagged with the nickname "Needless Markup."

Here's a classic example. About a year ago Marie Lang, sister of yours truly, was searching for a leather shoulder bag. She found a medium brown, designer bag she liked for $1,200 at Neiman Marcus. However, being a discerning/critical comparison shopper, Marie of course took a few days to scout the competition.

The result? She found a comparable shoulder bag at Bloomingdale's for $595. Had she been willing to take a slightly smaller bag, she could have secured one for $395.

Continue reading Company nicknames: Neiman Marcus -- If you have to ask about price ...

Now, younger adult customers are starting to call on Avon

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Avon is worth an evaluation.

For decades a door-to-door company, Avon (NYSE: AVP) has stepped into the globalization and digital ages, and the initial progress reports are positive.

Avon is the midst of a restructuring aimed at increasing efficiency and widening the company's sales venues. In its most recent quarter, Avon's North American region was a laggard, but its international business performed well, registering a 16% increase in sales, with double-digit gains from Central/Eastern Europe, and an impressive 29% rise in China. Further, in general, analysts were pleased with AVP's emerging market performance, citing brand building gains and an ability to attract much-sought, younger-adult women. As a result, AVP is on-track to meet analysts' 7-9% revenue gain for F2008.

Direct selling (5.3 million representatives) continues to be AVP's base, but catalogs, mall kiosks, a day spa, and a web site create a diverse retail presence.

All the while, Avon has also reduced its costs by initiating manufacturing operations in lower-cost regions of the world, and via sales force productivity increases. The company's expanded product base (cosmetics, fragrances, toiletries, jewelry, apparel, and home furnishings) is succeeding at widening its brand appeal across categories. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AVP are $2.16/$2.57.

Continue reading Now, younger adult customers are starting to call on Avon

Estee Lauder (EL) looking pretty

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) made the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) on Tuesday as the company that had a rise in stock price but the largest outflow of money. Perhaps now that the company's IRS problems are behind it and all sectors are showing profits, insiders want to take their share of the profits. The news from the company's 4Q and FY 2007 report is very positive. All product categories in all regions increased sales, though the increases in the U.S. were the smallest. FY sales topped out at over $7 billion, FY net earnings from continuing operations rose $124 million to $448.7 million, and FY diluted EPS increased 45% to $2.16. Numbers for just 4Q 2007 were as good. EPS of $0.45 was double that of 4Q 2006 when the company was embroiled in tax problems.

Whether organized by geographic region or product category, sales and earnings are headed in the right direction. Estee Lauder is increasing its sales channels to include a larger internet presence, more products in European pharmacies, as well as moving into direct-response television advertising. This sales reorganization comes at the cost of $30 million for discontinuing slow selling and lower profit margin items, as well as reconfiguring an international distribution network. The strategy seems to be working as makeup, fragrance, and hair care sales are up 11% in Asia, 10% in Europe and the Middle East, and 3% in the U.S.

Operating cash flow declined significantly, due primarily to stock repurchases. CEO William Lauder forecasts that 1Q 2008 sales will grow 5-7%, and FY 2008 sales growth will be 7%-9%. Diluted EPS will be $2.28-2.40 with hair care products being the biggest seller. The stock currently trades right around $40.00.

Ding dong, Avon calling. You should answer

Under activist CEO Andrea Jung, Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) has turned itself around and is posting excellent numbers across the board and around the world. Investors interested in international stocks should still take a look at Avon which, despite being an American company, now earns slightly more than half its revenues from markets abroad. The stock opened the year trading at $33.60 and closed July 12 at $39.55, up 19% thus far this year. Not only do 2007 numbers look good compared to 2006, which was admittedly horrible, but as the reorganization efforts continue to gain traction worldwide, the numbers will only get better.

Here follows a summary of Avon's recent earnings report:

1Q 2007 total revenue grew 9% to $2.2 billion, with all 6 global divisions posting profits. Net income for 1Q TRIPLED to $150 million. The number of Avon representatives rose 4% to more than five million, making Avon the world's largest direct seller. Avon is spending $15 million to provide leadership and sales training for this potent sales channel. Operating profit rose 176%, (not a typo!) to $238 million despite continuing restructuring costs of $27 million. Thus far, FY 2007 cash flow is ahead of FY 2006 cash flow and the company repurchased $130 million of its stock during 1Q 2007. FY 2006 was marked by huge restructuring costs inlcuding inventory write offs and numerous products lines being discontinued. Most of the mess is behind Avon, a fact demonstrated by around the world increases in both revenues and profits.

Continue reading Ding dong, Avon calling. You should answer

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 04:30 AM

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