To understand why as much as $800 billion in taxpayer money could be at risk in this bailout, it pays to look at its winners and losers. Last month I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch discussing the potential winners and losers from a bailout of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).

The bailout has been announced -- featuring a government takeover of their operations, receipt of senior preferred stock worth $1 billion paying 10% dividends, the promise of buying up to $200 billion more worth of senior preferred each quarter to keep their net worths positive, $5 billion worth of open-market mortgage-backed securities (MBS) buys, and a demand that they reduce their MBS holdings by two-thirds over the next several years.

It is clearer today that this takeover was triggered by a report from Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) that Fannie and Freddie needed $50 billion in capital "to offset the companies' combined losses," according to the New York Times. They had reported $84 billion in capital at the end of June, $12 billion more than the minimum required to trigger a government takeover. The Morgan Stanley report suggested that overly optimistic accounting understated their capital needs.