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Analyst downgrades: ERIC, CC and HOTT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson, Circuit City and Hot Topic were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Societe Generale downgraded shares of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Hold from Buy after the company lowered its Q4 guidance. Goldman Sachs downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy on the company's lowered Q4 revenue outlook and the growing probability that the wireless infrastructure market will decline again in 2008.
  • Circuit City (NYSE: CC)'s rating was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, as they believe the company's high cost turnaround will require a strategic partner or acquirer, which may not happen until after 2H08 and this year's holiday season.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) to Hold from Buy to reflect their pushed out expectations for an earnings recovery.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Freeport: Global reach, now at a bargain price

The market's choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) period continues. No single market participant can change that reality, but you can make the best of it -- specifically by looking for bargains.

Miner Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is one such opportunity. Freeport is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major miner of gold and molybdenum. Further, FCX's purchase of Phelps Dodge in March 2007 means that the company now has proven and probable reserves of: copper, 75 billion pounds; gold, 128 million ounces; and molybdenum, 1.9 billion pounds, net minority interests.

But perhaps most important, Freeport is one of only eight companies that have the economies of scale to compete in the global mining sector of the early 21st century. Look for continued merger/acquisition talk in the sector, but don't think of Freeport as an acquisition play: FCX has a large portion of the global copper market, geographical diversification, and enduring relationships with key customers, among other strengths, to continue to perform well in the years ahead.

Continue reading Freeport: Global reach, now at a bargain price

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Take a defensive stance now

Jim Cramer on BloggingStocksTheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that this is among the worst markets he remembers, and explains how to live through it.

We've just crossed into no man's land with this dramatic selloff of what has been working: agriculture, oil, minerals and defense -- although the latter held up well.

We are now square into 1990, where only a few stocks hold up and things go very awry. It is a time to be defensive and be glad you caught as much as you did, but recognize that we will not go up without emergency Fed relief because there simply is too much stress in the system.

Are we in a bear market? I have long ago recognized the worthlessness of those labels. You say "bear market" and maybe you miss the next six points in Coke (NYSE: KO) (Cramer's Take) that could be had or the next five in Merck (NYSE: MRK) (Cramer's Take). We may have a nice leg up in dividend-oriented stocks. We can catch bounces in commodity stocks, and we might just want to start buying some beat-up stocks with solid rest-of-world exposure.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Take a defensive stance now

Trader sees 10% to 20% decline

Richard Rhodes, professional trader, money manager and editor of The Rhodes Report was one advisor who accurately forecast the recent decline and moved into short positions going into this past week.

And while he sees the potential for a near-term bounce, this week's action leads the advisor to say, "A major trading high has formed, which will lead to a -10% to -20% correction...perhaps deeper."

He explains, "If there was ever a 'bell' to signal the end of an intermediate or long-term rally; we think the decline from the S&P 500 high of 1565 to yesterday's low at 1465 suffices as such."

The constriction of credit and liquidity, he notes, has led to very poor advance/decline figures. As such, he suggests being a seller during any rallies that result fro the "month-end bullish pattern and short-term oversold condition."

Indeed, even in his Long Only Portfolio – a portfolio that as its name implies only holds long position – he now says, "We are going to a very rare, but very prudent 'no position' stance." As for his Long/Short Portfolio, he says, "We are now aggressively short."

Continue reading Trader sees 10% to 20% decline

Option update 6-14-07: Starwood up on renewed Kerkorian speculation

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: HOT) -- volatility Elevated on renewed Kerkorian speculation. HOT, a leading hotel and leisure company, is frequently mentioned as a private equity break up/recapitalization candidate. Chatter is circulating that Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda has a mid-$90's offer on the table for HOT. HOT is recently up $0.63 to $70.64. HOT has a market cap of $15 billion with long term debt of $1.8 billion. HOT reported quarterly March 2007 total revenue of $1.4 billion. HOT July option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) -- volatility not confirming renewed takeover speculation. CFC, the largest U.S. home mortgage lender, is recently up 26 cents to $38.16. CFC July option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today are: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX), Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update 5-23-07: Option traders adjust positions

NYMEX Holdings-(NYSE-NMX) volatility Flat as Arbs consider Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE: CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) positions after CBOT Holdings (NYSE: BOT). NMX -- an energy and metals marketplace -- has a market cap of $11.58 billion. Arbitrageurs are aware if the CME's bid for the BOT or ICE's bid for BOT does not go through, NMX could be vulnerable to a bid from the losing bidder. NMX overall option implied volatility of 33 is near its 22-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

BHP Billiton-(NYSE-BHP) option implied volatility suggests Flat Risk. BHP, the world's largest mining company, has a market cap of $153 billion, is recently up $1.36 to $52.11. BHP has been frequently mentioned during the last 17-months as having an interest in doing a deal with Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE-FCX), Alcan Inc. (NYSE: AL) and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA). Prudential has an Underweight rating on BHP. BHP overall option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today are: Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ-AMZN), Kraft Foods (NYSE-KFT) and Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE-FCX).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update 4-10-07: WM implied volatility & put volume Elevated into EPS

Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM) implied volatility and put volume Elevated into 4/17 EPS.
WM, a consumer and small business bank with assets of $346 billion, is recently up $0.05 to $39.30. Keefe Bruyette says that WM "has a large share of production in Alt A products and, in our view, has a large share of its balance sheet exposed to mortgage." WM call option volume of 2,552 contracts compares to put volume of 30,969 contracts. WM April option implied volatility is at 43, May is at 27 -- above its 26-week average of 22 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Stamps.com Inc. (NASDAQ: STMP) April 20 calls & puts active at Elevated prices into EPS.
STMP, a provider of Internet based postage solutions, is recently trading at $14.44. STMP will announce EPS on April 19th. STMP April 15 calls have traded 79 times on transaction volume of 1,369 contracts above its open interest of 277 contracts. STMP April 15 puts have traded 35 times on transaction volume of 560 contracts, above its open interest of 24 contracts according to Track Data. STMP April 20 straddle is priced at $1.65 above its theoretical value of 0.95 cents, suggesting larger price risk into EPS.

Option volume leaders today are: Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) and Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) .

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Freeport McMoRan readies for Phelps Dodge vote

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) opened at $57.52. So far today the stock has hit a low of $57.20 and a high of $58.90. As of 11:10 this morning, FCX is trading at 57.50, down 0.44 (0.8%).

After hitting a one year high of 72.20 in April, the stock fell to a one year low of 43.10 just two months later. The stock has since calmed slightly, trading mostly in the 50-60 range over the past nine months. The company has recently been clearing the path for its upcoming shareholder approval vote to acquire Phelps Dodge (NYSE: PD). Gold and copper futures are both looking up this morning, giving FCX a lift earlier this morning, but market pressures at 12:30 dipped FCX into the red. The technical indicators for FCX have been bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $50 range. FCX hasn't been below 50 for more than a day or two since June and has been in a solid trading range between 50 and 62 for the past 8 months. This trade could be risky if the copper or gold prices dip or if the PD situation changes dramatically, but even if that happens, FCX could be protected by its support around 50.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. (Free Subscription)

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Daily options update: Dell with solid earnings, Deere up

Analysis provided by Paul Foster of Theflyonthewall.com:

U.S. stocks moved were mixed today as energy prices rose. The S&P 500 up 0.16%, NASDAQ 100 up 0.09%, The Dow up .04% and the 10 year bond rates decreased to 4.578%. The CBOE VIX was down .07 to 9.90.

Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) December option implied volatility at was 36. Dell reported better than expected earnings per share of .30 cents. The company was recently trading at $27.40, above its close of $24.82 after Dell announced 3rd quarter earnings per share of 30 cents verses consensus estimates of 24 cents. Dell's December option implied volatility went out at 36 above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) option implied volatility decreased to 25 on quarterly net income rising 19%. DE was recently up $5.86 to $95.27. Deere reported 4th quarter earnings per share of $1.20 verses consensus estimates of .94 cents. Deere says "equipment sales are projected to be roughly flat for the full year and increase approximately 5% for the 1st Q of 2007." UBSW raised its price target to $112 from $100. Deere December option implied volatility went out at 25 below its 26-week average of 28 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.

Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold, Inc. (NYSE: FCX) implied volatility spiked to 55 as BHP possibly considers bid for Freeport McMoRan. The company explores for, develops, mines and processes ore containing copper, gold and silver. It announced a definite merger agreement to purchase Phelps Dodge Corporation on 11/20/06 for $25.9 billion. Phelps Dodge shareholders are to receive $88 per share in cash plus 0.67 in common stock of Freeport McMoRan. Freeport McMoRan over-all option implied volatility was at 36 yesterday. The company's December option implied volatility was at 55 today, above its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), General Electric Company (NYSE: GE), Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), and Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG).

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DJIA-74.9212,454.83
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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 02:55 PM

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