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Analyst downgrades: SPRD, AMLN and NWK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Spreadtrum, Amylin Pharma and Network Equipment were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Roth Capital downgraded Spreadtrum (NASDAQ: SPRD) to Hold from Buy and said recent checks at several Chinese handset companies indicate shipments have been weak since mid April due to sluggish demand and weak macro conditions. The firm does not expect SPRD to meet its Q2 revenue guidance and has lowered estimates and its rating.
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of Amylin Pharma (NASDAQ: AMLN) to Hold from Buy as they believe Novo Nordisk's (NYSE: NVO) Liraglutide could prove to be greater-than-expected competition for AMLN's Byetta.
  • Network Equipment (NYSE: NWK) was cut at ThinkPanmure to Source of Funds from Buy following the company's reduced guidance based on reduced government spending.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Lehman downgraded European Stocks to Underweight from Overweight.
  • Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) was cut at JP Morgan to Underweight from Neutral.
  • Goldman downgraded Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) and Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Tekelec (NASDAQ: TKLC) was lowered to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Early analyst calls: FTO, MUR, ABH

J.P. Morgan downgraded Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) from "neutral" to "underweight," according to Briefing.com. The news service writes that Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at Goldman Sachs.

Briefing.com writes that AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) started as Outperform at RBC Capital Markets. The website also reports that Macrovision (NASDAQ: MVSN) was raised to Buy at Piper Jaffray

Analyst upgrades: Frontier Oil, Royal Bank of Scotland, Alaska Communications

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Alaska Communications, Royal Bank of Scotland and Frontier Oil were today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • Banc of America upgraded shares of Alaska Communications (NASDAQ: ALSK) to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company will return to a dividend growth focus after completing its strategic initiatives.
  • Credit Suisse raised Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) to Neutral from Underperform as they believe the company has already taken "prudent" write-downs.
  • Bear upgraded Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) to Peer Perform from Underperform as they believe the company is better positioned to withstand this period of margin weakness.

OTHER UPGRADES:

Kiplinger: Oil refiners not as profitable as we might think

Over the past year, we have been hearing a lot of news about soaring crude oil prices. The easiest thing that we could think about is investing our money into independent oil refiners. Companies such as Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO), Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO), Tesoro (NYSE: TSO), Alon USA Energy (NYSE: ALJ) or Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) are among those potential stocks on the waiting list.

Though it may seem surprising, Kiplinger.com advises us of exactly the opposite. Kiplinger underlines the fact that refiners represent a way to loose a lot of money... contrary to pipelines, oil producers and energy service companies. This came as the result of people's needs to transform crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel or heating oil.

The big difference between the cost of crude and the price of refined products is called the "crack spread", and this is where the problem comes in. In May of last year, the crack spread peaked at $27, and even moved up as high as $40 in some locations. This compares to the historical norm of closer to $20. But starting with the spring of 2007, things started changing, and the spread began to narrow... now the spread has fallen down to around $8.50 for some companies.

Continue reading Kiplinger: Oil refiners not as profitable as we might think

Analyst downgrades: GS, LEH and AMTD

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Goldman Sachs, Lehman and TD AmeriTrade were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • UBS downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Neutral from Buy. The firm believes liquidity problems and de-leveraging in the capital markets will get worst before they get better; UBS also downgraded Bank of New York (NYSE: BK), State Street (NYSE: STT) and Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Following Bear Stearns' (NYSE: BSC) downfall, UBS also downgraded Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to Neutral from Buy and said the company could be the "next on the list" for the confidence/liquidity crisis by some investors.
  • TD AmeriTrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) was downgraded to Neutral from buy at UBS and to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings. Friedman Billings downgraded TD Ameritrade citing slowing client activity as well as margin compression.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • JP Morgan cut Portugal Telecom (NYSE: PT) to Underweight from Neutral.
  • Goldman downgraded Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) and Holly Corp (NYSE: HOC) to Neutral from Buy and removed Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) from its Conviction Buy List.

Analyst upgrades: GSF, RIG, FTO, TSO and AUDC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: GlobalSantaFe Corp, Transocean, Frontier Oil, Tesoro and Audio Codes were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of GlobalSantaFe Corporation (NYSE: GSF) and Transocean Inc (NYSE: RIG) to Neutral from Underweight based on valuation and improving deepwater rig fundamentals.
  • Frontier Oil Corporation (NYSE: FTO) was upgraded at Banc of America to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company's assets are ideally located to access cheap Canadian oil sands production. They feel the stock should trade closer to its replacement value, which they estimate at $55/share.
  • The firm also raised Tesora Corporation (NYSE: TSO) to Buy from Neutral, as the firm believes Terero is the best play on the extended refining cycle given its exposure to California.
  • CIBC upgraded shares of AudioCodes (NASDAQ: AUDC) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer on valuation after their checks suggested the company's business is stabilizing and cost cutting is tracking ahead of plan, which could bring upside EPS estimates.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Stocks that outperformed Google (GOOG)

Three years ago yesterday, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) became public. Since then, those investors who could get past the seemingly high valuation of $85 per share have been generously rewarded with a hefty return of 478%. Google has been a perfect example of the need to look forward when analyzing growth companies. At the time of its IPO, value investors (rightfully so) appeared on CNBC to tell investors that Google was overvalued. However, because Google was able to grow its earnings per share at such an unbelievable rate, the stock's IPO price represents just 8x last year's earnings and 5.5x this year's. Given the choice to buy Google at $85 per share now I'd bet every value, growth, stupid and smart investor would jump on the opportunity to pick up the stock.

But Google hasn't been the only incredible performer during the last three years. In fact, Business Week has an interesting article listing the companies and stocks that outperformed Google during the last three years. You'll find that many of these stocks rose due to some huge underlying trend that these companies were able to ride out for powerful growth.

For example, high oil prices have been a huge trend for profits. Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) was able to return 611% to investors over the last three years as the company rode the increased oil prices to make huge refining profits. Foster Wheeler (NYSE: FWLT), with its focus on energy, pharmaceuticaul and environmental infrastructure products, was able to return 557%.

Continue reading Stocks that outperformed Google (GOOG)

Valero & Frontier: 'Refined' gains

"I am very pleased with the performance of our energy investments and I particularly like the refiners," says resource expert Curtis Hesler. The editor of The Professional Timing Service has also owned Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) since 2005, and despite their strong performance, he says, "You should try and work these into your holdings during weakness."

Hesler explains, "Refiners have the ability to refine sour crude, which is becoming more prevalent on the market as the sweet crude fields peak out. In this process, sour high sulphur crude will make up more and more of available supply to the distinct advantage of those few refiners that can process it.

And yes, he adds, crude oil production is "already peaking out." He says, "I think you will find that once the numbers are gathered, 2006 will become the official year that global crude oil production peaked out."

He notes, "Another aspect of sour crude is that it sells for a significant discount to sweet crude, and the difference goes straight into the refiner's profit column. You will pay the same price for gasoline no matter what type of crude it is made from.

Frontier, he observes, has the advantage of being located outside the hurricane regions, and it's not susceptible to storm damage like Valero. However, he says, Valero has the ability to efficiently make 'boutique' gasoline blends. And he adds, "It is estimated that for every penny that gasoline prices move up, Valero makes an extra $1 million profit!"

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 07:57 AM

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