Whatever happened to those forecasts for $20-30 oil? Oil, which traded Friday at about $80 per barrel, is up more than 100% in the past 12 months, and the U.S./global economic recoveries have just started, which is why I'm reiterating my Buy rating for BP plc (NYSE: BP), first recommended on March 26, 2009 at a price of $41.72. If you bought BP then, you're up about 30%.

After a challenging 2009, look for BP to improve its fundamentals over the next 2-4 years, with continued, superior oil/natural gas reserve replacement, and restructured, more-efficient downstream operations. Revenue will total only about $220-$230 billion in FY2009, but will rebound to better than $300 billion in FY2010 -- and the latter assumes only a $55-65 per barrel oil price: crude will likely average a much higher price in 2010, assuming the global recovery does not stall.

We have heard a lot of news over the past 12 months about soaring fuel prices and the effect it is having on the major automakers. With record-high oil prices, and gasoline running about $4.10 a gallon, drivers are spending more and more money to fill up their tanks. One of the natural options for people has been to move towards less expensive, small, and simple cars.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) noticed that fuel-efficient vehicles will be more appealing to consumers, and announced last week plans to reduce production at its truck division (a bit late to join the party, but at least it's something for the struggling auto maker). Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is also slashing truck production during three months at its U.S. plants.

While It is true that most less expensive cars don't offer the same luxury when compared to sedans or SUVs, they come with a lot of options that can satisfy every individual need. Among the cheapest cars available, the article points out Honda's Fit ranked No. 11 at $13,950, a small car whose standard version comes with an adjustable steering column and four-speaker audio system, and is equipped with multiple airbags in the front, rear and side. Other vehicles that follow the same logic are the Chevrolet Aveo, ranked No. 2 at $11,460; the Toyota Yaris, third at $11,550, and the Kia Spectra, fifth at $12,895.

Fuel prices seem to be the number one concern on just about everyone's mind lately, and it seems like things are not going to be getting better any time soon. As prices have risen to record levels, many of us have decided to cut back on our driving, especially on long trips in order to save a little on our fuel prices. Well, the airlines are no different, and there's an interesting report today in The Wall Street Journal showing how airlines are cutting back on long flights in order to save a little on fuel consumption.

It is a pretty nasty cycle we are seeing with the airlines. The higher fuel costs have led to higher tickets prices and extra fees. These higher prices have led to less air traffic, and that has led to an even greater need to find more ways to cover rising costs. Definitely a tough situation.

The new way they are starting to combat the high costs of flying is by cutting back, or postponing long international flights, in particular flights that are in excess of 12 hours.

Consumers and analysts are beginning to fear that $130 oil is being driven as much by shortages of supply as by rising demand. But, supply may not be the issue, at least for some OPEC countries.

Saudi Arabia recently said it would up production by 300,000 barrels a day, but that did not seem to thwart oil's march higher. Now the United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli says he can offer a little more black gold, if the circumstances are right. According to Reuters "We are always happy to put more oil in the market if the market needs more," Hamli said when asked if the UAE would raise supply with the Saudis.

The fight between OPEC and the US turns on that word "if." The US says that increased demand in China, India, and other developing countries has pushed the need for crude sharply higher, and with it, the price. OPEC points to the weak dollar and financial speculation as the culprits.

For now, the West can only continue to suspect that OPEC is not offering more product because it makes too much money at current prices. Nothing the cartel can say will change that view.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

In reaction to surging fuel costs, several major airlines announced today that they were raising their fares in order to recoup some of their rapidly increasing flying costs.

The increase this time around is $20 and effects passengers traveling on UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL), and AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR)'s American Airlines. The $20 jump in prices will be added to the airline's fuel surcharges, and consequently, these charges are now running at $130 round trip on most flights that you will book through the airlines.

The current rate hike was first initiated by Delta, and marks the second time in just over a week that the airline has been forced to raise fares in order to combat record high fuel costs. Times are definitely tough for airlines, and they are doing everything they can to combat fuel prices, but regardless of the rate increases most analysts are still expecting to see huge losses this year from most, if not all, airline carriers.

Despite a challenging economic environment, Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) has been continuing its strong competition with rival General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) for the title of the world's largest automaker. As results show, the good times are rolling for Toyota which earlier today posted an increase of 2.7% for its global sales, for a total of 2.41 million vehicles during the first-quarter.

On the other side of the coin, GM announced a decline of almost 1% in its total sales. Last year, General Motors held the crown in global sales, but on the other hand Toyota was the leader in global vehicle production. Both companies benefited from strong demand outside the United States.

General Motors has said that strong overseas sales weren't enough to overcome a weak North American market. The company saw a 10% drop in first-quarter sales in its home North American market as high fuel prices and worries about housing and the credit crunch pressured consumers. Regardless of the weak results, GM restated its desire to "win, and we'd like to be No. 1 in sales at the end of the year."

There has been plenty of buzz lately about merger activity among the major airlines. The latest thought is that Delta Airlines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE: NWA) will join forces in a battle against record-high fuel and other challenges to the industry. But despite the positive effect some feel consolidation may have on the airline sector, passengers are still facing stressful travel.

Crowded gates and cramped airplane seats. Delayed flights. The struggle to reduce one's toiletry kit to a series of 3-ounce portions. And it is only getting worse. A report in today's New York Times reported that big airlines are cutting down on domestic capacity in 2008 and raising ticket prices while they are at it. For every $10 increase in a barrel of oil, airlines are forced to lift round-trip fares by an average of $18 (and who can blame them?). Black gold is currently hovering close to the $100 level; about a year ago, it was close to $50. In sum, air travel will be more expensive, and just as crowded (if not more so). In 2007, jets were already more crowded than they'd ever been... and posted the highest-ever percentage of late arrivals.

Some people say that Americans need to look for "alternatives" to oil as prices generally increase and pollution concerns are trumpeted by environmentalists. The current hot topic is ethanol, a corn-based fuel that is already being used in automobiles on a small scale.

The new demand for corn is fantastic for farmers, who are seeing rising prices paid for their corn. It's not so good for consumers -- it's causing food prices to rise as the availability of corn is going down.

Looking for fuel alternatives is a good idea, but it has to be done strategically and smartly. Consumer needs for food should come before fuel. That's just common sense.

A bill passed the House of Representatives on Friday, mandating more widespread use of "biofuels," which are derived from plants. We currently consume about 6 billion gallons of ethanol and other biofuels, and this bill would force consumers to increase that to 36 billion gallons per year by 2022.

Barron's piece on AMR Corporation's (NYSE: AMR) American Airlines points to how investor sentiment might be changing toward the airline industry. The airlines are profitable, have huge cash positions and little debt outside of the leases for their planes.

One potential catalyst could be the spinning off of many of the industry's frequent flyer programs, similar to what Air Canada did with its Aviation Holdings frequent flyer program.

Also, as American Airlines and UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA) are getting pitched by investment bankers about spinning off assets, the supply-and-demand balance for oil and jet fuel are looking more favorable for a price decline. With demand slowing and new supplies coming to market from Saudi Arabia, the drop in fuel could be considerable.

With American having corrected from $40 and now selling for $22, and UAL Corp holding up better, but still selling for a cheap valuation, both stocks seem to have a number of catalysts in place to drive both airline stocks higher.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Advantest (ATE), RightNow Technologies (RNOW), Mattson Technology (MTSN), Akamai Technologies (AKAM) and P.F. Chang's (PFCB) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Matrix downgraded Advantest (NYSE: ATE) to Strong Sell from Hold; the firm doesn't expect Advantest's profits to improve in the near-term after chip makers indicated they plan to cut capital spending.

• RightNow Technologies (NASDAQ: RNOW) was cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest to reflect the company's poor execution.

• Mattson Technology (NASDAQ: MTSN) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at American Technology; The firm said Q2 results were strong but bookings and gross margin outlook were weaker due to memory spending weakness.

• Credit Suisse downgraded P.F. Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Wiesel to reflect below plan new store performance for the third consecutive year at Pei Wei...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Citigroup cut Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) to Hold from Buy.

• Merriman downgraded Fuel Tech (NASDAQ: FTEK) to Neutral from Buy.

• Bear Stearns cut Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) to Peer Perform from Outperform.

• Goldman Sachs removed Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) from its Conviction Buy list.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

With the price of fuel growing each week, the search for America's next energy alternative grows even stronger. WR Hambrecht looked at Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE), a California-based supplier of liquid & natural gas for vehicles, and they think they found a hidden gem.

Clean Energy provides solutions for fleets to run on natural gas as an alternative to gasoline or diesel. The company currently operates in 10 states and Canada, with plans to begin operation in Peru later this year. The first quarter of 2007 was the company's first profitable quarter since 2001, generating revenues by selling compressed natural gas, liquid natural gas, and to a lesser extent, by building, operating and maintaining fueling stations. They currently serve over 200 commercial fleets with 13,000 natural gas vehicles, including Waste Management Inc (NYSE: WMI), Enterprise Rent-a-Car, UPS Inc's (NYSE: UPS) fleet in Dallas and the Port of Los Angeles.

The key to Clean Energy's success lies in the continued increase in crude prices and the public's desire for cheaper alternatives. According to Hambrecht, natural gas vehicles emit "50-70% fewer emissions, save $5,000-$17,000 in fuel costs annually and use widely distributed and domestically available natural gas" compared to the standard vehicles used to day.

Not a bad start.

Clean Energy is currently in its growth phase and Hambrecht initiated coverage of the alternative energy stock with a Buy rating and an $18 target. They project the company to earn $0.03 in 2007 and $0.23 in 2008. Hambrecht believes Clean Energy's valuation, currently up $0.12 to $13.00 in mid-day trading, doesn't take into account the upside potential from the natural gas vehicle roll-out and estimates an addressable market over $20 billion.

With gas prices rising so fast, there's no reason natural gas should not be outfitted for commercial vehicles, but for the general populace as well.

It was June. I was a little broke. And my Mercedes SUV, that I'd purchased when I was single, young and foolish, got a flat tire. The tires were ready to be replaced anyway, and there was no "patching." It was dead.

That wasn't all that was wrong; I'd done a mental list of nits and major issues (like, the front windows wouldn't go up or down; the windshield was leaking; the rest of the tires were pretty shot) that added up to between $1500 and $3500, depending on how far I wanted to go. Really, it was $1000 to get the car in working order again.

I had two children, ages four and one. My house was within a few blocks of three bus lines. The whole family had bicycles and we live in a city that values alternative modes of transit. I was starting to really freak out about global warming; would my kids even have wineries nearby by the time they reached the age of consent? The papers said no.

The next day, a friend emailed. "Would anyone like to participate in a car diet?" There were freebies; a bus pass, use of a Flexcar, some goodies for our bike. We handed over our keys a few weeks later in a ceremony, with the mayor and the Channel 8 news crew standing by.

Who ever heard of a backup generator being run indoors? All that diesel exhaust would be sure to suffocate someone, wouldn't it? You bet it would! Place a diesel fired backup generator in the basement of any hospital and you could be in for some serious respiratory troubles, not to mention the fact that the local Fire Marshall would probably have something to say about it . A recent report by Green Progress adds a whole new angle to this scenario.

Enter the next generation of backup power systems. Power Air Corporation (OTC:PWAC) has developed and holds many exclusive rights to Zinc Air indoor power generating systems. Revealed for the first time beyond the confines of nondisclosure agreements, a Zinc Air Fuel Cell (ZAFC) prototype generator was run indoors at Fuel Cell Expo 2007 in Tokyo, Japan, as a center stage demonstration and testament to the viability of the technology. A joint venture by Power Air Corp. and it's current Asian Joint Venture partner, H-Plus Eco Ltd, has brought Zinc Air Fuel Cell technology to the point where further investment and involvement is being solicited from additional prospective Asian venture capitalists and manufacturers.

Mr. Remy Kozak, President and CEO of Power Air states: "ZAFC based generators have the potential to revolutionize the back-up power industry " At present, ZAFC technology is mainly being considered as a constructive adjunct to current electrical generation systems. Although unable to determine a comparison of actual operating costs, I gained by inference that those costs shall, for the time being, restrict ZAFC technology to mainly backup status. Not to worry though, as you know new technologies have always languished in the background for a time before genuinely taking hold. However, given the ever tightening EPA air quality standards, ZAFC generators have the potential to move ahead somewhat faster than the average development curve.

It pleases me greatly to know that yet another potentially hydro carbon-free option has emerged. This could be just one more chink in big oil's armor. The gap is closing between those who have their thinking caps on and those who are just sitting on their big fat ... wallets. I'd put my money with the thinking cap gang any day. Those fat wallet folks stand a mighty good chance of seeing those wallets thinned a bit or else just falling off of them .

Wisconsin-based Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI) is boasting advances in lithium ion battery technology that is enabling automakers worldwide to successfully create and sustain the new breed of high-efficiency automobiles. Remember, these new hybrids and plug-ins are useless without adequate and dependable, long-life power sources to support them. Since January 2006, Johnson Controls has sought to make lithium ion batteries the chosen power pack for future energy efficient vehicles. I'm pleased to report that they have met with admirable success.

Earlier this month, Johnson Controls accepted a development contract with General Motors to develop and test lithium ion batteries for use in GM's Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid SUV. Concentrated development efforts begun in January 2006 by Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Systems (JCS) have come to the point where JCS was able to install and display a fully integrated lithium ion battery system in a prototype hybrid-electric SUV at the 2007 North American International Auto Show.

Alan Mumby, president and general manager of Johnson Controls hybrid battery business, states: "We are thrilled to be a key player in enabling tomorrow's green technologies". The JCS lithium ion battery laboratory, situated in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is the only dedicated facility in the world focused exclusively on developing lithium ion technology for use in hybrid vehicles.

At least partial funding of the JCS lithium ion battery development project has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy in furtherance of the Freedom CAR and Fuel Partnership project. The United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR) is also a driving force in this effort. USCAR is a development and research effort operating with the combined forces of Americas big three automakers. This all speaks well of our friends in American auto manufacturing. Breathe easy America, they're working on it.

There's no word yet on how this small development might touch Exxon (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) or Conoco (NYSE: COP), but a little upstart in New Zealand called Aquaflow Bionomic Corporation has successfully test driven a vehicle fueled with a biodiesel blend called B5. The new fuel technology exploits biodiesel, which is readily created from harvested algae grown in nutrient rich sewage settling ponds. The best part is that the algae used is created in huge volumes by a process that is already in wide spread use.

In an article reported on the Green Progress website, Aquaflow states that they are years ahead of original estimates regarding when this technology could become available. They say that the next step is to attain the capacity to produce one million litres of this algae based biodiesel per year.

So far the company has attracted some moderate attention from private investors. They had announced that their prospectus would be available by Christmas time but I've not seen one yet. My request for one has been sent. When I receive it I'll be sure to let you know.