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Options Update: Darden Volatility Elevated into EPS

Darden (DRI) April and October put option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of 28, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement into Q3 results that were reported Thursday after the market close.

Euro Currency Trust (FXE) closed up 70 cents to 141.15. Overall option implied volatility of 11 is near its 26-week month average, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Euro Currency Trust Volatility Flat

Euro Currency Trust (FXE) closed down 0.6% to 131.93 , near its 100-day moving average of 132.47. Overall option implied volatility of 13 is near its 26-week month average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) closed down 0.62% to $117.68. The FXY reflects the price of Japanese Yen plus accrued interest. FXY over all option implied volatility of 11 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Euro Currency Trust Volatility Elevated as Euro Trends Lower

Euro Currency Trust (FXE) closed at $129.70. FXE May and June option implied volatility is at 15, September is at 16; above its 26-week average of 12 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Kinross Gold (KGC) closed at $18.83. Gold is recently up 1.51% to $1247 according to Bloomberg. May option implied volatility is at 44, June and August is at 45; verses its 26-week average of 46 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: Euro Currency Trust volatility of 13 near nine-month lows

Euro Currency Trust (NYSE: FXE) closed at 140.33. The FXE reflects the price of the Euro plus accrued interest, less the expense of the Trust's operations. FXE overall option implied volatility of 13 is below its 26-week average of 18, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Financial Select Sector - XLF overall volatility at 44; 26-week average is 64.

ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 116 on 6/30/09. ISEE 10-day moving average is 111.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

An easy way to invest in currencies

Historically, currency trading had been done through futures accounts, making this the realm of sophisicated traders and currency professionals. But with the advent of exchange-traded funds that replicate movements in global currencies, even the novice can now participate.

I'd caution, that despite the ease with which one can now trade currency-based ETFs, understanding the inter-relationship of currencies and forecasting moves in individual currencies remain complex topics.

Two advisors with a long-standing expertise in this area are Mary Anne and Pamela Aden -- who offer their outlook for the US dollar, and their top picks among currency ETFs.

They explain, "Interest rates are an important influence in the currency markets." In their newsletter, The Aden Forecast, they continue, "Currently, U.S. interest rates are higher than the euro rate. But euro interest rates are rising and they're at a five year high, while the rise in U.S. rates is slowing down and the next direction for U.S. interest rates is likely down. That now makes the dollar unattractive and the euro more desirable.

In other words, the sisters explain, "The dollar's interest rate advantage has diminished and that's very bearish for the dollar."

This is serious situation, they note, especially since many countries are diversifying out of their dollar holdings. As an example, they cite China. The sisters observe, "China has formed a new agency that will diversify their massive trillion dollar reserves into other currencies."

In addition, they note, "As the dollar heads lower, other countries could speed up their diversification plans as well, which would help fuel the dollar's decline and boost the euro as demand for the euro grows."

If as they suggest, the US dollar is headed lower, then select foreign currencies will rally. To play this expected trend, the sister recommend that investors hold positions in foreign currencies through exchange-traded funds.

Their recommended positions are Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXA), the Euro Currency Trust (NYSE: FXE), the British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSE: FXB), and the Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF).

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 01:11 AM

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