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The Fed Is Going All In: And So Should You (FXY, FXF, GLD)

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve released the FOMC statement on interest rates and the outlook for the economy. The statement sent a clear message to the markets that the Fed was prepared to adopt a more accommodative monetary stance if the outlook for the economy continued to deteriorate. Essentially, Ben Bernanke and his merry gang of banksters said that they will print as much money as needed in order to backstop the economic "recovery." The Fed is willing to go "all in" with regard to the debasement of the U.S. Dollar. That is clear.

Investors should do the same. If the financial bubble blowers at the Central Bank want to trash the dollar beyond repair and risk hyperinflation, then investors should stand at the ready to meet them step for step. The outlook right now is fairly straightforward in the near-term. Buy gold. Consider the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) or the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS).

Continue reading The Fed Is Going All In: And So Should You (FXY, FXF, GLD)

Big Mac Index: What Burgers Say About Currency Valuations

"For the 24th year running that the Economist magazine has published its famed Big Mac Index; this index is a tongue-and-cheek way of measuring the purchasing power parity (PPP) -- that is, the relative overvaluation and undervaluation of the world's currencies," notes Nicholas Vardy.

The editor of The Global Stock Investor explains, "What does the Big Mac now say about the relative value of global currencies?

"According to the theory of purchasing power parity, a dollar should buy the same amount of the same good across all countries. By comparing the cost of Big Macs -- a good that is produced in about 120 countries -- the Big Mac Index calculates the exchange rate (the Big Mac PPP) that would result in hamburgers costing the same in America as they do abroad.

Continue reading Big Mac Index: What Burgers Say About Currency Valuations

Investing in Euro 2008 (and Swiss punctuality)

You can say a lot about the Swiss (sorry Mom!), but at least they are always on time. There is a great article over on the BBC that details Switzerland's obsession with time. Everywhere you turn in Switzerland, there's a watch, a clock, or a timer of sorts. I love visiting my Mom who's a recent transplant to Zurich. The trains, the shows, food service -- everything is exactly on time.

It's going to be interesting when hordes of tourists from across Europe and hinder pour into Switzerland June 7 for the start of the European football (that's soccer to you and me) championships. Extra trams and trains are already being rolled out to make sure fans make it everywhere they need to go -- on time.

So, how does one think about "playing" the Euro 2008?

Continue reading Investing in Euro 2008 (and Swiss punctuality)

An easy way to invest in currencies

Historically, currency trading had been done through futures accounts, making this the realm of sophisicated traders and currency professionals. But with the advent of exchange-traded funds that replicate movements in global currencies, even the novice can now participate.

I'd caution, that despite the ease with which one can now trade currency-based ETFs, understanding the inter-relationship of currencies and forecasting moves in individual currencies remain complex topics.

Two advisors with a long-standing expertise in this area are Mary Anne and Pamela Aden -- who offer their outlook for the US dollar, and their top picks among currency ETFs.

They explain, "Interest rates are an important influence in the currency markets." In their newsletter, The Aden Forecast, they continue, "Currently, U.S. interest rates are higher than the euro rate. But euro interest rates are rising and they're at a five year high, while the rise in U.S. rates is slowing down and the next direction for U.S. interest rates is likely down. That now makes the dollar unattractive and the euro more desirable.

In other words, the sisters explain, "The dollar's interest rate advantage has diminished and that's very bearish for the dollar."

This is serious situation, they note, especially since many countries are diversifying out of their dollar holdings. As an example, they cite China. The sisters observe, "China has formed a new agency that will diversify their massive trillion dollar reserves into other currencies."

In addition, they note, "As the dollar heads lower, other countries could speed up their diversification plans as well, which would help fuel the dollar's decline and boost the euro as demand for the euro grows."

If as they suggest, the US dollar is headed lower, then select foreign currencies will rally. To play this expected trend, the sister recommend that investors hold positions in foreign currencies through exchange-traded funds.

Their recommended positions are Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXA), the Euro Currency Trust (NYSE: FXE), the British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSE: FXB), and the Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF).

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 10, 2012: 06:15 PM

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