Here's a little consumer advocate-based gasoline price monitoring one can undertake, and you can forward the results to your local Congressman/woman.

Oil accounts for about 60-65% of the price of U.S. gasoline. For every $1 that oil rises, the price of U.S. regular unleaded rises about 2.4 cents a gallon.

For U.S. drivers fed up with the volatility and seemingly annual spring/early summer surge in gasoline prices, there is a way to hedge most of that risk via an exchange-traded fund: the U.S. Gasoline Fund (NYSE: UGA). UGA traded Monday afternoon down 82 cents to $29.95.

I haven't mentioned the fund because UGA has less than three year's price history, and, frankly, the economics literature is mixed regarding how effective petroleum funds are at matching (and hence hedging) price rises.

The U.S.'s country & western culture has a saying that goes, 'I was country, before country was cool.'

Well, billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens was "bullish on oil, before being an oil bull was cool." And, despite the bursting of the leverage-influenced oil bubble, during which oil plunged from $147 to below $40 in less than a year, Boone-Pickens is still bullish on oil, long-term.

One half expects the late, great writer/director Rod Serling to show up at OPEC's next production meeting in Vienna in March.

"Consider, if you will, the plight of OPEC, a cartel so driven by greed that they choked off the very source of their wealth and continued income. OPEC now faces a reality in which that very selfishness will continue to work against the cartel, a reality that doesn't resemble any world they've known, but one that we often find in 'The Twilight Zone.' "

Is the end of OPEC at hand? Perhaps not, but the cartel is facing its most serious crisis in more than a decade, so says economist Richard Felson.

Oil fell more than 3.5% to $39.40 per barrel early Friday, as another large increase in U.S. layoffs and the unemployment rate posed the specter of additional reductions in U.S. oil and gasoline consumption.

Oil fell $1.77 to $34.40, and the price has now decreased more than 10% in 2009 and more than 55% from a year ago. In the summer of 2008, oil hit an all-time high of $147.27 per barrel.

The other major energy commodities also fell in early trading Friday, continuing their nearly month-long downtrend. Heating oil fell about 2 cents to $1.34 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined about 3 cents to $1.24 per gallon, and natural gas fell 7 cents to $4.57 per million BTUs.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) fourth-quarter earnings report provided a stark contrast to the high-flying results being reported by the oil companies when gasoline prices exceeded $4 by a substantial amount in some markets.

For the quarter, ConocoPhillips reported a loss of $31.8 billion. resulting from the write down of certain assets, including goodwill put on the books after several recent acquisitions.

When they had the capacity to do so, they refused to increase production, preferring instead to reap ever higher revenue - - essentially extracting as much money for energy as possible out of the U.S. and global economies.

The result: Oil Shock III - - aided by the leverage financing boom - - which sapped disposable income, helping trigger the current U.S. and global recessions.

OPEC miscalculated and simultaneously choked-off oil demand - - and, once again, 'killed the goose that lays the golden egg.'

Now global oil demand is falling - - including real consumption declines in the United States, and, incredibly, flat demand in emerging markets. And the price of oil? Despite a record $100 plunge in one year, it continues to fall - - currently trading around $41 per barrel.

Just call it a case of the pot calling the kettle black.

OPEC, which for decades has manipulated and artificially distorted the price of oil through cartel supply reductions, now wants U.S. regulators to curtail oil trading by hedge funds and other speculators it claims helped create 2008's volatile oil market, Bloomberg News reported.

Research is incomplete, but several models argue that speculators, assisted by excess leverage, artificially boosted oil's price during the recent economic expansion, culminating in oil hitting a gargantuan high of $147.27 per barrel in the summer of 2008. Oil's price later collapsed with the onset of the U.S. and global recessions, as demand waned and investors / traders exited long positions. Oil traded early Wednesday down 19 cents to $41.39 per barrel.

Oil rallies a few days in a row, and bingo! -- already there's talk regarding an oil bottom.

True, oil has rallied more than 40% -- it traded at around $45 early Tuesday after touching $32.40 per barrel about a month ago -- but investors may want to hold off buying oil futures contracts or venture forth with oil-related stock plays. And the reasons are both technical and fundamental.

First, technical analysts almost universally agree that 'a bottom' is a process, not an event. In other words, don't expect it to happen in a day, or a week; typically, a bottom can take weeks -- and sometimes even months -- to form. Second, oil has two price hurdles up ahead: the 50-day moving average at $46.27, and the psychologically-important $50 level. If oil can clear and close above each level for three consecutive days, that would be bullish, but we're not there yet. And until it does, the oil bears will have much technical evidence to argue that oil's current rally is largely a short-covering rally.

Oil is not a 'partisan' commodity, at least not at this juncture.

Democratic or Republican administration, oil continued its march lower, declining another $1 Tuesday to $33.30 per barrel on continued concerns about weakening global demand. Oil fell about $1.70 on Monday.

The other major energy commodities also declined early Monday. Heating oil fell 8 cents to $1.40 per gallon, unleaded gasoline decreased 7 cents to $1.10 cents per gallon, and natural gas dipped 17 cents to $4.62 per million BTUs.

Energy Trader Jim Dietz said Tuesday the weak U.S. economy, a higher dollar, and the resolution of two international energy-related issues points to significantly lower oil in the weeks and months ahead.

Investors thinking about positioning themselves in oil stocks, or in other stocks that would benefit from higher oil prices may want to wait awhile.

Global oil demand -- a major factor in determining oil's price -- is expected to decline in 2009 by 1 million barrels per day (bpd), the International Energy Agency announced Friday in its latest monthly report.

Even more significant, the IEA also decreased its 2008 global oil demand estimate by 70,000 bpd to 85.8 million bpd, a reduction which means oil demand dropped 0.3% in 2008 and is forecast to decline 0.6% in 2009 -- the first 2-year decline in global oil demand in 26 years, or since 1982-1983.

Oil fell 13 cents on Friday at mid-day to $35.24 per barrel. Oil has fallen an astounding $112.03 since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in the summer of 2008.

There once was a time when the oil bulls had the upper hand: word of a refinery outage in Louisiana or unrest in Nigeria would send oil rocketing $3, sometimes $5 higher in a morning session.

Then the financial crisis occurred, the U.S. and global economies fell into recessions, sapping oil demand, and now the oil bears have the hammer: oil rallies are corrective at best, Pyrrhic at worst.

Case in point: oil's most recent rally from the mid-$30 range about two weeks ago to above $50 in early January: a sizable percentage move, but ultimately fleeting - - oil fell $1.88 to $35.26 per barrel Thursday at mid-day after OPEC again cut its 2009 forecast for global oil demand.

In its January report, OPEC said it now expects the OPEC production component of 2009 global oil demand to fall 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 29.5 million bpd.( pdf)

Further OPEC, also sees a "major contraction" in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) demand in 2009, including a 1.1 million bpd decline in U.S. oil consumption.

Energy market professionals say that when assessing the oil market today, it's important to focus on one factor, demand.

Crude's rally from the low $30-range to above $50 per barrel in less than a month had visions of $60 oil dancing in the heads of oil bulls, but it was a rally that nevertheless flew in the face of demand fundamentals.

Declining demand is the key

Those fundamentals show, among other consumptions stats, real declines in both oil and gasoline consumption in the United States, and a decline in the growth of oil consumption in China -- two major energy markets, Energy Trader Jim Dietz said.

The consequence? Inventories are rising worldwide, he said. One example: oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where fuel for NYMEX traded contracts is stored, has increased to 32.4 million barrels, the highest level since 2004. Nations and other oil producers are also increasing their storage of oil at sea in supertankers, Dietz added.

It's a classic case of the trend outpacing the cutbacks.

Oil plunged more than 6% early Monday on concern the U.S. and global recessions will decrease demand faster than OPEC can cut supply.

Oil fell $2.57 to $38.26 per barrel -- its second dip below $40 in less than a month.

Energy Trader Jim Dietz said the long-term factors favor a continued move lower by the world's most important commodity.

"As I said earlier, we're definitely headed lower. The geopolitical problems in the Middle East and in Ukraine can't go on forever, and when they're resolved, oil will drop further," Dietz said. "The next minor support level is $35." Dietz added that he was currently short unleaded gasoline, with a monthly contract.

Free markets are essential and they have many benefits, but they are not perfect. Many economists, including economist Peter Dawson, agree. The global financial crisis, along with those infamous, Frankenstein-like, mortgage-backed securities and the massive, publicly-funded bailouts for failed free market institutions demonstrate this.

Another example, according to Dawson: the free market and oil. The mantra is, it's best to let the market determine the price of oil. Economist Dawson is doubtful, because oil price swings create economic havoc.

Consider the predicament airline, delivery, and related executives who manage businesses that have a major fuel cost face: you know that this year the price of oil is going to be somewhere between . . . $30 and $110. "Now that clarifies things," Dawson laughs. "Piece of cake."

Also, consider what oil industry executives face: try making and managing a 5-year or 10-year exploration budget. What's the price of oil going to be in three years? $20? $50? $75? $150? "Nobody knows, and it's creating havoc in exploration circles," Dawson said.