gasoline prices posts
FeedPosted Oct 23rd 2009 4:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Oil
Many investors have heard about
peak oil, the theory that argues that at some point in this century, perhaps as early as 2020, global oil production will peak, setting off a period of scarce oil supplies, and large increases in the price of crude, among other ramifications. There are camps that disagree and say peak oil is either very far away, or that it will never occur.
However, Daniel Yergin's
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), one of the most respected research firms in the energy industry, says there's another peak that will require adjustments:
peak oil demand.Continue reading Firm says oil demand has peaked in the developed world
Posted Sep 21st 2009 3:20PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer experience, Economic data, Commodities, Oil
Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'
Case in point: the decline in gasoline consumption. As many U.S. motorists will no doubt attest, it was a perplexing driving season concerning gasoline prices.
The driving season - Memorial Day in May thru Labor Day in September - occurred during a U.S. recession that's seen about SEVEN million Americans lose their jobs, and amid a sustained pull-back in consumer spending (including gasoline consumption).
Continue reading Under the radar: Gasoline demand seen falling in U.S., Europe
Posted Jul 6th 2009 5:40PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: ETF Investing, Commodities
For U.S. drivers fed up with the volatility and seemingly annual spring/early summer surge in gasoline prices, there is a way to hedge most of that risk via an exchange-traded fund: the
U.S. Gasoline Fund (NYSE:
UGA). UGA traded Monday afternoon down 82 cents to $29.95.
I haven't mentioned the fund because UGA has less than three year's price history, and, frankly, the economics literature is mixed regarding how effective petroleum funds are at matching (and hence hedging) price rises.
Continue reading US Gasoline Fund: A gasoline price hedge
Posted Mar 6th 2009 10:30AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Commodities, Oil
The U.S.'s country & western culture has a saying that goes,
'I was country, before country was cool.'Well, billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens was "bullish on oil, before being an oil bull was cool." And, despite the bursting of the leverage-influenced oil bubble, during which oil plunged from $147 to below $40 in less than a year, Boone-Pickens is still bullish on oil, long-term.
Continue reading T. Boone Pickens still bullish on oil: Sees $200-300 oil in 10 years
Posted Feb 11th 2009 4:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Commodities, Oil, Recession
One half expects the late, great writer/director
Rod Serling to show up at OPEC's next production meeting in Vienna in March.
"Consider, if you will, the plight of OPEC, a cartel so driven by greed that they choked off the very source of their wealth and continued income. OPEC now faces a reality in which that very selfishness will continue to work against the cartel, a reality that doesn't resemble any world they've known, but one that we often find in 'The Twilight Zone.' "Is the end of
OPEC at hand? Perhaps not, but the cartel is facing its most serious crisis in more than a decade, so says economist Richard Felson.
Continue reading For OPEC, it's cut production now, or else
Posted Jan 29th 2009 1:26PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Commodities, Oil, Recession
When they had the capacity to do so, they refused to increase production, preferring instead to reap ever higher revenue - - essentially extracting as much money for energy as possible out of the U.S. and global economies.
The result:
Oil Shock III - - aided by the leverage financing boom - - which sapped disposable income, helping trigger the current U.S. and global recessions.
OPEC miscalculated and simultaneously choked-off oil demand - - and, once again,
'killed the goose that lays the golden egg.' Now global oil demand is falling - - including real consumption declines in the United States, and, incredibly, flat demand in emerging markets. And the price of oil? Despite a record $100 plunge in one year, it continues to fall - - currently trading around
$41 per barrel.Continue reading OPEC, at Davos, signals more production cuts are ahead, if needed
Posted Jan 28th 2009 10:45AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Commodities, Oil
Just call it a case of the pot calling the kettle black.
OPEC, which for decades has manipulated and artificially distorted the price of oil through cartel supply reductions, now wants U.S. regulators to curtail oil trading by hedge funds and other speculators it claims helped create 2008's volatile oil market,
Bloomberg News reported.
Research is incomplete, but several models argue that speculators, assisted by excess leverage, artificially boosted oil's price during the recent economic expansion, culminating in oil hitting a gargantuan high of $147.27 per barrel in the summer of 2008. Oil's price later collapsed with the onset of the U.S. and global recessions, as demand waned and investors / traders exited long positions.
Oil traded early Wednesday down 19 cents to $41.39 per barrel.
Continue reading OPEC, not satisfied with its cartel power, wants speculators stopped
Posted Jan 27th 2009 10:45AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Technical Analysis, Commodities, Oil
Oil rallies a few days in a row, and bingo! -- already there's talk regarding an oil bottom.
True, oil has rallied more than 40% -- it traded at
around $45 early Tuesday after touching $32.40 per barrel about a month ago -- but investors may want to hold off buying oil futures contracts or venture forth with oil-related stock plays. And the reasons are both technical and fundamental.
First, technical analysts almost universally agree that 'a bottom' is a process, not an event. In other words, don't expect it to happen in a day, or a week; typically, a bottom can take weeks -- and sometimes even months -- to form. Second, oil has two price hurdles up ahead: the
50-day moving average at $46.27, and the psychologically-important
$50 level. If oil can clear and close above each level for three consecutive days, that would be bullish, but we're not there yet. And until it does, the oil bears will have much technical evidence to argue that oil's current rally is largely a short-covering rally.
Continue reading Has the price of oil bottomed?
Posted Jan 20th 2009 9:05AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Commodities, Oil
Oil is not a 'partisan' commodity, at least not at this juncture.
Democratic or Republican administration,
oil continued its march lower, declining another $1 Tuesday to $33.30 per barrel on continued concerns about weakening global demand. Oil fell about $1.70 on Monday.
The other major energy commodities also declined early Monday.
Heating oil fell 8 cents to $1.40 per gallon,
unleaded gasoline decreased 7 cents to $1.10 cents per gallon, and
natural gas dipped 17 cents to $4.62 per million BTUs.
Energy Trader Jim Dietz said Tuesday the weak U.S. economy, a higher dollar, and the resolution of two international energy-related issues points to significantly lower oil in the weeks and months ahead.
Continue reading Destination $30: Oil falls to $33 on continued demand concerns
Next Page >
Signs of an economic recovery are likely to gladden the hearts of most investors, particularly given the damage done to stock values -- and 401k plans -- by this pronounced recession. 
The week in preview: Earnings from Walmart, Macy's, and other retailers
Six top trades for the rest of 2009
Comfort Zone Investing: Buffett buys Burlington
