The Wall Street Journal posted oil production numbers for March that disclose the shortfall from the Libyan conflict. When the news hit the tape, Brent Crude exploded to the upside trading at $120.17 per barrel, up $1.47 (12:45 EDT.)

Here are the stats:

• OPEC production fell 411,000 barrels per day to 29,343 million bpd.
• Libya's production fell 343,000 barrels per day, from 1,396,000 bpd.
• Nigeria fell 107,000 barrels per day due to Royal Dutch (RDS) Oil maintenance.

To make up for the shortfall, Saudi Arabia increased production by 500,000 barrels per day to 9.05 million bpd. Kuwait upped production by 37,000 barrels per day. Arab Emirates increased their production by 90,000 barrels per day.

Here's the real kicker. OPEC's seaborne exports are expected to fall by 530,000 barrels per day in the next four weeks.

Consumer confidence fell more than expected during the month of March, hitting a new three-month low as high gasoline prices weigh on the minds on consumers.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index read 74 during February, but dipped in March all the way down to 63.4. Going into today's reading, analysts had been expecting to see the consumer confidence index decline, but only to 65.

The game is changing. It's time to play defense. Two weeks ago the U.S. stock market was in a bullish trend with no end in sight. Now international events are taking center stage. How long the markets can ignore these events is the question of the day.

Brent crude oil is trading at $116 per barrel. This has serious implications for the U.S. economy. If you recall, when oil spiked in 2008, it was a major factor in the recession that followed. People simply could not afford the price of gas and slowed their driving dramatically. We must remember that many people commute 50 to 70 miles a day just to go to work. The money is coming out of the household budget. Some people spend more in gas than they do working, especially if they work part time.

The oil market has been in the hands of the bulls. The talk on Wall Street is of $100 per barrel oil. Traders are betting that OPEC will not raise production. In 2008, when oil spiked to $147 per barrel, OPEC was stretched to the limit. Now the situation is different.

The price of oil is reaching a critical point. The oil spike of 2008 was a factor in setting off the Great Recession. Many fear that "demand destruction" -- a permanent downward shift in demand -- could take hold again. The price of oil and the price of gasoline are nearing a point where they are pulling too many dollars out of household budgets. Gas at the pump is close to $3.50 per gallon. If you recall, when gas moved from $3.50 to $4.00, it forced consumers to cut back on their driving and thus brought prices back down.There is an added problem: Our economy is still fragile. A spike in the price of oil could slow growth this year.

The story of the day is about oil. February contracts for Brent crude are trading at $98.03 per barrel, up 74 cents as of 10:15 a.m. EDT. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) is trading at $91.85 per barrel, up 42 cents. Brent crude is used primarily in Europe. The drive to $100 per barrel is due in part to severe winter conditions in Europe.

Here in the U.S., the Alaskan Pipeline, which has been closed since Saturday, has reopened but at a reduced rate. U.S. stockpiles fell 1.4 million barrels from, 335.3 million in the week ended January 7. This data was based on 17 analysts polled by Bloomberg News.

Oil rose above $90 per barrel on Wednesday, and the average U.S. price for unleaded regular topped $3 per gallon. Moreover, with the U.S. economic recovery likely to strengthen in 2011, and will strong emerging market GDP growth gobbling up more barrels of oil, both oil and gasoline prices are likely to rise further next year.

That's good news for investors in most oil stocks, but bad news for U.S. consumers, particularly motorists. However, the view from here argues that one should not dabble in the futures market to try to hedge against rising oil prices. The price of oil is influenced by more than 10 variables, and unless you're prepared to lose up to $500 per day, you're probably going to be at a trading disadvantage.

Investors -- certainly U.S. stock investors -- would be wise to keep one eye on the price of oil, currently pushing $90 per barrel. Oil traded up 10 cents to $89.29 on Monday at mid-day.

And the reason is obvious enough: once again, oil is approaching the danger zone, from a U.S. GDP growth standpoint.

No one knows precisely at what point oil begins to substantially hinder consumer spending and slow commercial activity -- but this much is known: every $1 per barrel rise in oil decreases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent increase in gasoline decreases U.S. consumer disposable income by about $600 million per year.

China's rapidly growing economy and its implied increase in energy consumption will be among the most important factors propelling the price of oil higher, says a key energy analysis firm.

What's more, almost half of the net growth in global oil demand through 2035 will come from China, and the Asian giant will be chief among the factors that push the price of crude over $100 per barrel after 2015, permanently, and then and over $200 per barrel by 2035, according to research compiled by the International Energy Agency, dw-world-de reported Tuesday.

Francisco Blanch, global head of commodity research at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, stated in the Financial Times that his forecast is for oil prices to move above $90 per barrel, then to $100 per barrel.

With more stimulus from the Fed, more dollars will be sloshing around the world. This gives a boost to oil demand and then higher prices. QE2 is scheduled to continue into 2011, which will support oil prices into next year.

One thing OPEC can never be accused of is: being a bastion of economic stimulus.

An OPEC official said some members of the group are calling for a $100 per barrel oil price, due to the dollar's recent weakening. Oil is priced in dollars.

Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez told Bloomberg News the recent fall in the dollar means the "real price" of oil is $20 less than current levels, justifying a $100 price. Oil closed down $1.43 to $81.26 per barrel Friday.

Hedge funds have the money and leverage to place large bets in commodities. This year, in particular, hedge funds have stepped up their exposure to commodities. Gold is a good example. Hedge funds have moved aggressively on the buy side during this past year.

More than ever, the movement of funds by hedge funds is controlling commodity prices. Hedge funds dumped 25% of their positions in natural gas in the week ending Sept. 28, as reported in BusinessWeek.

The commodity exchanges publish a commitment of traders report, which tracks the number of long and short contracts. Net long positions fell by 17,373 to 51,306.

It's been a trying summer for many Americans, with a job market that's underperforming, and a listless Dow that's exhibited sideways action for three months, but there has been one encouraging trend of late: gasoline prices.

Although at an average U.S. price of $2.70 per gallon for regular unleaded and about 4% higher than last Labor Day, 'the trend has been the motorist's friend,' as they say on Wall Street, with prices moving lower, with a few hiccups, essentially since spring. In early May, the average price for unleaded regular hit $2.78 per gallon.

To say there's been a spate of less-than-pleasant news regarding the U.S. economy lately would be an understatement. Initial jobless claims, existing home sales, and consumer confidence metrics are all trending in the wrong direction, from a rising GDP growth goal standpoint.

But there is one, encouraging stat investors, and drivers, can point to: Wholesale regular unleaded gasoline prices, which have plunged about 35 cents per gallon in the last month, from a high near $2.20 per gallon to about $1.85 per gallon on Tuesday at mid-day.

The oil market's bears regained control Tuesday, but as they say in the oil trading pits, 'for now,' or 'stay tuned.'

Oil plunged $2.54 to $75.54 per barrel Tuesday afternoon, as the threat from Tropical Storm Alex to the Gulf of Mexico's energy infrastructure waned and after U.S. consumer confidence plunged on the job market's woes, Reuters reported Tuesday.

Today's data points support the oil bears argument that the economic recovery is underway but may slow, limiting oil demand growth, and when combined with ample supplies, will lead to a lower oil price, moving forward.

If you're a motorist, the glass is either half-full or half-empty, depending on whether you tend to see the bright side or the not-so-bright side of circumstances.

On the bright side, gasoline prices have fallen about 20 cents in the past month, to a U.S. average of $2.72 per gallon for regular unleaded, according to data compiled by AAA, The Associated Press reported. Average prices are higher in such high-cost areas as New York City, Boston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.