Bright and early this morning, Roche Group (OTC: RHHB) announced first-half earnings and upped its annual earnings goal, thanks to impressive sales of Tamiflu. Roche's first-half profit (it only reports earnings twice) dropped 29% to $3.8 billion as the company was hit by costs related to its purchase of Genentech. That said, Roche upped its earnings guidance and forecast double-digit core earnings growth in both 2009 and 2010 -- the earlier forecast called for earnings to stay at 2008 levels.

Curis (NASDAQ: CRIS) is a speculative stock -- no approved product and no revenue -- that, in former markets, would sell for $10 - $12. It is now around a buck and a half, after doubling in the past few months.

CRIS focuses on cancer treatments, and is partnered with Genentech/Roche. It has a new therapy for basal cell carcinoma in mid-stage trials. The results appear very promising. In fact, they are so promising that Genentech is treating this as the last trial needed before seeking FDA approval.

This stock is a potential 10- to 20-bagger with an FDA approval in 2011 or so. And the company is on the verge of licensing a new molecule that could be a big catalyst for the stock in the short term.

Your best strategy for life-changing profits?

Buy CRIS now. (In the interest of full disclosure, I own a lot of CRIS.)

Next: Biotech Stock #5

Roche is cutting the amount of money it is offering for Genentech (NYSE: DNA) from $44 billion, or $86.50 a share, to $42 billion. The Genentech board had hoped for a higher price, but Roche may find itself hampered by the credit crisis.

According to Reuters, ""Roche had initially aimed to acquire the remaining shares through a negotiated settlement -- an offer rejected by Genentech -- and decided to appeal directly to shareholders after further talks failed to reach an agreement.". All the Genentech board can do now is recommend shareholders shun the deal.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicked off the new season with a larger-than-expected loss due to the economic slump.
• Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions (NASDAQ: MDRX) reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings.
• Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) share price soared after its strong Q1 earnings and guidance.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) earnings prospects without CEO Steve Jobs led to an analyst's downgrade.
• Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) lowered its guidance as business slows at an unprcedented rate.
• Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) reported terrible Q4 results and receivbed additional TARP money.
• Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) lowered its 2008 earnings estimate due to soft soybean commodity markets.
• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) posted a much bigger-than-expected loss and said it would split in two.
• Coventry Health Care Inc. (NYSE: CVH) offered full-year guidance that was less than analysts expectations.
• CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) forecast Q4 earnings would come in below analysts' expectations.
• CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS) increased its quarterly dividend despite the recent lowered guidance.
• Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) reported a net loss for Q4 and the full year, dragging down the sector.
• Genentech Inc. (NASDAQ: DNA) revenue and earnings surged but were lower than analysts estimated.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) Q4 results were in line with low expectations as the gross margin declined.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reported a huge drop in Q4 earnings but it stayed in the black.
• Lexmark International Inc. (NYSE: LXK) slashed its Q4 outlook and announced job cuts.
• Pentair Inc. (NYSE: PNR) efforts to limit an earnings decline led to a buy recommendation.
• Precision Cast Corp. (NYSE: PCP) earnings prospects following the recent rally led to an analyst's downgrade.

The new earnings season ramps up this week as Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reports fourth-quarter results. Last week, the Pittsburgh-based producer of aluminum and alumina announced layoffs and production cuts as a reaction to the economic downturn. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that Alcoa will have swung to its first quarterly loss in years: $0.10 per share. That compares to a profit of $0.36 per share in the same period of the previous year. Revenues for the quarter are expected to have fallen 28.8% from a year ago to $5.3 billion. For 2008, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $27.6 billion, down from $2.60 per share and $30.8 billion in the previous year. Alcoa missed earnings estimates in three of the past five quarters, by 25.4% in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts shifted from buy to hold AA during the past quarter. The share price has been climbing in recent weeks, but it is 65.6% lower than a year ago.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is also scheduled to report fourth-quarter results this week, one of a handful of tech stocks to do so. The number one semiconductor maker is expected to post earnings down 86.8% to $0.05 per share, and sales of $8.2 billion, down 23.3% from a year ago. Last week, Intel forecast sales for the quarter of $8.2 billion. The full-year numbers are expected to be marginally lower than a year ago, or $0.94 per share on $37.7 billion. Intel only missed earnings estimates in one of the past five quarters. Shares are about $2.00 higher than the 52-week low, but 37.2% lower than a year ago.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), a producer of crop nutrients, is recently down 81c to $24.59. MOS announced Q2 2009 results will be severely impacted by soft global demand for fertilizers. MOS December and January option implied volatility of 131 is above its 26-week average of 88 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movements.

Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) is recently trading at $1.66. PALM negatively pre-announced Q2 results. Goldman Sachs reiterated its Sell rating on PALM. PALM overall option implied volatility of 105 is above its 26-week average of 90 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Genentech (NYSE: DNA) is recently up $1.55 to $73.35. Roche announced on July 21 the offer to buy the balance of 44% of DNA it does not own for $89 cash. DNA December option implied volatility of 71 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Genentech (NYSE: DNA) closed at $78.19 Tuesday. Roche announced on July 21 the offer to buy the balance of 44% of DNA it does not own for $89 cash. DNA November option implied volatility of 60 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

IBM (NYSE: IBM) closed at $95.65 Tuesday. IBM is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on October 16. Thomas Weisel lowered its 12-month price target form $143 to $120. IBM October option implied volatility is at 85, November is at 60; above it's above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

New data from Dealogic shows that July was the fifth straight month of growth in U.S. mergers and acquisitions activity -- and the highest total since a year ago.

But it's not quite as good as it looks. The data is skewed upward by foreign bids for American companies like Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) and, according to the Associated Press, "the rise in M&A ... more likely reflects foreign companies taking advantage of the weak dollar than it does a loosening of credit."

But from an investors' perspective, the cause of the increase probably doesn't really matter. Deep value investors like Mohnish Pabrai have been struggling to post strong returns of late, in part because the private equity funds that could be relied on to buy undervalued companies a couple years ago have brought their U.S.-based activity to a hault.

But now the foreign companies and sovereign wealth funds are in the game and, from an investors' perspective, that's just as good -- whoever will buy undervalued public companies at a premium will boost returns. The low price-book, low price/earnings, contrarian investment strategies that haven't worked lately could be ready to start working again, just as they have historically.

Genentech (NYSE: DNA) is recently trading at $93, above its close on Friday of $81.82.

Roche Holding AG offered to buy the rest of DNA for $89 in cash. Roche, the world's largest maker of cancer drugs, acquired a majority in DNA in 1990 and currently owns 55.9% of DNA. Goldman Sachs says: "We expect the independent directors to negotiate with Roche for a higher price."

DNA August option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

This morning's announcement that Roche wants to pay $43.7 billion for the 44.1% of Genentech (NASDAQ: DNA) it doesn't already own raises the question: "Why is Genentech worth so much to Roche?" The answer: it outperforms its competitors when it comes to innovation.

Roche is offering a 9% premium to Genentech's market value at Friday's close. Reuters reports that Roche wants Genentech's $2.6 billion (2008 estimated sales) Avastin, a colorectal cancer treatment, and Herceptin, a $1.3 billion (estimated 2008 sales) breast cancer drug, as well as Genentech's drug development portfolio.

Roche also expects to save $750 million to $850 million in pretax costs, but the long-term benefit would be for Genentech's innovative culture to take over the relatively dry drug development environment of Roche. If that doesn't happen, the deal could be unprofitable for both companies.

Roche, the Swiss drug maker, has offered to buy the 45% of biotech giant Genentech (NYSE: DNA) that it does not already own. The offer totals $43.7 billion in cash. According to Reuters, Roche "would offer $89 per share to buy up the remaining stake, a 9 percent premium to the biotech company's closing share price on Friday."

The transaction would probably be a poor deal for Genentech holders and the board of the company should reject it and push for a higher price. When reporting quarterly earnings recently, the company raised its outlook to a range of $3.40 to $3.50 per share, from $3.35 to $3.40. Several brokerages made positive comments about Genentech and Citigroup began coverage of the stock as a "buy" with a $91 price target.

Although Genentech's shares are trading at a 52-week high at nearly $82, the firm is just recovering from rough earnings in last 2007. Early last year, before the rocky patch, the stock traded just below $90. The Genentech's No.1 drug, cancer treatment Avastin, is expected to do extremely well over the next several years.

The Roche offer does not take into account the fact that Wall St. expects Genentech to be a powerful growth company during the rest of the decade making the stock worth well over $90.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.