Analyst Upgrades

• Athenahealth (ATHN), Ensco (ESV), Pride International (PDE) and Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• CIRCOR (CIR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Shaw Group (SHAW) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) to buy from neutral, as well as Intrepid Potash (IPI) to neutral from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Carlisle (CSL) to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

I am not sure that Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) will make it through the month as public companies. Barron's quoted an anonymous senior official -- who sounds an awful lot like Hank Paulson to me -- that unless Fannie and Freddie could raise at least $10 billion each, the government would bail them out while wiping out common shareholders and eliminating the preferred dividend. Since then, investors have been dumping shares of Fannie and Freddie like there's no tomorrow.

Who wins and who loses if Fannie and Freddie's shareholders are wiped out? As I said on CNBC's Power Lunch this afternoon, the winners are investors who shorted Fannie and Freddie years ago and are now reaping enormous profits. I also think that some Wall Street investment banks will win big as they get the job of selling off Fannie and Freddie's pieces. The losers are their biggest common and preferred shareholders -- including some well known mutual funds.

The winners are:

• Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings - Rogers originally shorted Freddie and Fannie in March 2006 and appeared on Bloomberg on November 20, 2007 to discuss why he did it and where he thought their stocks would go.
• Doug Noland, Prudent Bear - As I posted, since the late 1990s, Noland's research has concluded that Freddie and Fannie would "shudder" when the US credit bubble eventually burst. Noland has profited from the short bets he made -- but he says it is emotionally painful to watch them fail.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Oppenheimer believes Jamba (NASDAQ: JMBA) is in the early stages of a solid top- and-bottom-line growth story and is one of the few opportunities today that offers sizable square foot growth, revenue and earnings growth, all with several years of visibility.

• Quiksilver Inc (NYSE: ZQK) was initiated with an Accumulate rating and $14 target at ThinkEquity.

• ThinkEquity also initiated shares of Volcom Inc (NASDAQ: VLCM) with a Buy rating.

• AG Edwards started Interactive Data Corp (NYSE: IDC) with a Buy rating.

• Merrill Lynch resumed coverage of Merck & Co, Inc (NYSE: MRK) with a Neutral rating.

• Matrix USA started coverage of Loral Space & Communications Ltd (NASDAQ: LORL) with a Strong Buy rating and $72 intrinsic value.

• AG Edwards initiated shares of Atheros Communications, Inc (NASDAQ: ATHR) with a Buy rating.

• Stifel initiated Peet's Coffee & Tea, Inc (NASDAQ: PEET) with a Hold rating.

• Bear Stearns started Genworth Financial, Inc (NYSE: GNW) with an Outperform rating and $42 target.

• Morgan Stanley started Nova Chemicals Corp (NYSE: NCX) with an Equal Weight rating.