georges yared posts
FeedPosted Aug 19th 2007 4:10PM by Kevin Kelly (RSS feed)
Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL), Market Matters, Columns, Stocks to Buy
Many analysts and traders will cite fundamentals or technicals to explain why the market might or might not rally from this level. In the end, it all comes down to sentiment and market dynamics.
In these volatile times, traders are known for rapidly switching from euphoric optimism to gloomy pessimism. For evidence of this you simply need to watch Cramer for several weeks in a row. I've found that in any given longer-term period, Cramer has a huge tendency to "flip-flop" on his opinions of companies, industries, and the overall market. But he's not to blame -- nearly all of Wall Street's short-term players are like this.
Truth is, the most recent downturn in the market (excluding Thursday and Friday) was much more than noise, and I firmly believe that the Fed cutting rates saved the market, at least over the short term (futures were pointing way down for Friday before the Fed raised).
However, I think the market has to rally if Monday is an up day. Why? Because Wall Street players, which had been so powerfully negative on the market over the last few weeks, will have to shift their position on the markets and increasing their "net-long" exposure. In doing so, they will likely be forced to cover some shorts and add to some longs -- increasing demand for stocks. I believe that this factor was a primary cause of the rocketing market on Friday and, from who I've spoken to, many funds have no adequately adjusted their net-long exposure and are waiting for a "confirmation move" on Monday.
Continue reading The basis for a rally is in place
Posted Aug 16th 2007 12:35PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, Coca-Cola (KO), Define Investing, Stocks to Buy
I don't think I can count how many times I have heard in my career "you can always count on Coca-Cola, no matter what condition the economy is in." It's as true today as ever. With the markets reacting in a volatile manner, globally, Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) is as solid as a rock. This $125 billion market capitalization company is only $2 off of its 52-week high of $56.71. The dividend yield is a solid 2.5% and Coca-Cola has a nice history of raising the payout.
Coca-Cola is one of the world's most recognizable brands. Coca-Cola was a global company before most of us knew what "globalization" meant. It is one of the United States most important exports. Besides the flagship product of Coke, the company also markets consumer favorites like Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. Latley, the company has expanded its product offerings to include bottled water as health-conscious consumers have gravitated to this sector of the beverage industry. Coke has successfully diversified its revenue and earnings base by expanding to this valuable part of the industry.
The amazing aspect to the Coca-Cola story is how professional portfolio managers view this company. The revenue and earnings growth rates are only about 10%, but yet Coca-Cola sports a hefty price-earnings multiple of 24 times. Portfolio managers have such confidence in the quarterly performance of Coca-Cola and the absolute consistency of its numbers that many refer to Coca-Cola as "the sleep well stock." This means they do not have to worry quarter-in and quarter-out about Coca-Cola achieving stated expectations: it's virtually automatic.
Continue reading Volatile Markets: Coca-Cola (KO) is the Real Thing
Posted Aug 16th 2007 10:57AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Forecasts, Products and Services, Wal-Mart (WMT), Market Matters, Target Corp. (TGT), Economic Data
Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has become the discount retailer of choice as demonstrated by the actual key metric --same store sales. Target has beaten its principal rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) 46 of the last 47 months in the head-to-head match up of same store sales.
Bottom line is Target is capturing and maintaining market share gains. The good news is Target's story has more growth prospects in front of it. Target is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota and was established back in 1902. The company was a division of Dayton's, an upscale retailer that had its core presence in the Northwest. Target stores were the after-thought. Target emerged in the 1990's as THE growth vehicle for Dayton's and eventually, the company was re-named Target and the Dayton stores are now part of Macy's. Things do indeed change!!
With a store base of 1,684 spread over 47 states, Target has the room to more than double the base over the next decade. In comparison, Wal-Mart has more than 4,000 stores in the United States alone. Target stores present a more pleasant shopping experience for the customer and have a fresher offering of products. Bottom line is people enjoy shopping at Target and the same store sales numbers completely reflect that fact. The fashions, cosmetics, linens, housewares, sporting goods, etc. are as up-to-date and fashionable even when compared to full-price retail concepts.
Continue reading Volatile Markets: Target (TGT) is the retailer of choice
Posted Aug 15th 2007 6:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Bad News, Rants and Raves, Indices, Headline News, DJIA
Is it possible for the Phoenix to rise out of these over-leveraged, overrated, financial ashes? Can the stock market reverse direction without the Federal Reserve Board taking action and reducing interest rates?
We're all so smart, but at any given moment we might have to don the dunce cap. I am eating humble pie with the rest of you -- worse I'm losing money on a few things (or would be if I sold something) so this is all very real. However, to my fellow long term investors it is all just a blip on the huge screen of investment perspective over time.
Not too long ago I was reading some Cramer stuff regarding how this market would be rising higher through the second half of the year. It used to be that he had plenty of good advice amid his periodic rants, now you have to listen very, very carefully to glean some insight because the ranting and raving have completely dominated and over taken him at times. To the infrequent observer you might think he has lost contol of his senses or even worse. He certainly has no shame.
One of my more knowledgable collegues Georges Yared posted Three reasons the Dow will reach 15,000 by year-end -- and six stocks to buy about a month ago. I do recommend you read the post and there is much to be learned, however, of all the thoughts enumerated the following seems to be the most relevant (and wrong) in today's market.
- "Mortgage market should stabilize: The US markets were trying to decipher the sub-prime mortgage mess back in April, and here in June they are still trying. The issue has not gone away, but the major banks appear to be handling the problem."
Well, the major banks DO NOT seem to be handling the problem. I think the problem is bigger than many of them. And Georges and I have underestimated the fear that has beset the market which promted me to write: Sunday Funnies: Last one out is a rotten egg! As far as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 15,000 by the end of the year, that appears, for now, to be a bit of a stretch.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well -- INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
Posted Aug 13th 2007 8:30PM by Kevin Kelly (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and Raves, Apple Inc (AAPL), Columns, Crocs Inc (CROX), Stocks to Sell
One of my colleagues at BloggingStocks is Georges Yared, a great growth stock picker who is well-known throughout the investing world. But from reading Mr. Yared's posts, I've found several issues with his thinking as of late.
While he does show discipline to buying below his price targets, I think that some of his ideas don't make sense for long-term investors and he neglects to explain the risks involved in the potential investments. In a recent post, Yared
spoke about two of his favorite ideas:
Apple (NASDAQ:
AAPL) and
Crocs (NASDAQ:
CROX).
Apple is indisputably a great company with incredible product momentum. In a recent post, I discussed why I believed Apple is quite exposed to a correction but I had no disputes with the strength of the underlying company. On the other hand, I think that Apple was, and remains, 'priced to perfection.' This simply implies that any earnings report or guidance figure which Wall Street interprets negatively will kill the stock. Analysts will be forced to cut earnings per share estimates, thus cutting price targets. To compound the problem, the multiple will be forced to contract due to 'less operating visibility' and 'signs of slowing momentum.' While this certainly isn't a definite or easily predicted event, the risk remains very viable.
Crocs is a whole different story. The creator of overpriced and ugly rubber beach shoes has been on fire in the last six months, during which it has doubled. While Crocs is similar to Apple in one regard -- it's lofty expectations from the street which it needs to exceed to justify its current price -- it's also very different. Unlike Apple, whose products will do well in any season, especially during Christmas, Crocs remains a one-hit-wonder for the summer months. Although Crocs bulls such as Mr. Yared
will argue that Crocs is "the next Nike" and that the company's new winter shoes will carry the company through Q407 and Q108, I think this is probably wishful thinking.
Similar to every other fad product, proponents argue that this is not a fad and that this product is different. But as Sir John Templeton once said, "This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history. One needs to look no further than
Heelys Inc. (NASDAQ:
HLYS) to see a stock that once wore the 'this time is different' fad hat.
Unfortunately for Crocs shareholders, when this company breaks it will sink ever-so-quickly. When Crocs buyers realize that their hideous, overpriced beach shoe is no longer the popular thing they will all neglect their Crocs just like they've recently done to their sneakers with wheels which were mass produced by Heelys. This problem will be compounded by the fact that Crocs has become increasingly reliant on "Jibbitz" -- plug-like themed inserts for Crocs shoes (no, I'm not joking) -- for growth. No one will want new Micky Mouse Crocs plugs when their deformed rubber shoes are collecting dust just as quickly as their fanny packs.
Story stocks and growth stocks are fun to invest in and even more fun to write about. It's nice to know that you are cashing in on the hottest trends in America. But oftentimes there's the unspoken side story to it all -- you're overpaying for this potential and when these companies cough up you stand to suffer immensely.
Posted Aug 10th 2007 3:15PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades, Forecasts, Rumors, Industry, Rants and Raves, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), , , Bargain Stocks, , , Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG)
Plenty of investment guru's have suggested buying on fear and selling when greed reaches its pinnacle. Well I think the fear side is self evident but I'm not hearing about many analysts who are brave enough to buy right now. As a matter of fact I only hear that this would be a very foolish time to invest in the financial sector, in particular, any stocks with sub-prime or "Alt-A" mortgage exposure.
For this reason, contrarian that I am, I thought I would speak out about my recent BAD CALLS, or at least very premature calls, and start tracking them for all to see -- accepting the ribbing, tomato-throwing and blunt comments about the error of my ways.
I own four of the five stocks I will be following for the next year, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: IMB), Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP), and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). I wrote favorable comments on each and in the case of WM, more than once. Needless to say, I am under water on all of them. I do not own Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) but it will make for a fine pace car in the middle of this storm.
Continue reading Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM)
Posted Aug 5th 2007 11:10AM by Kevin Kelly (RSS feed)
Filed under: Amazon.com (AMZN), Technical Analysis, Stocks to Buy
One of the BloggingStocks editors recently instant messaged me and said, "You know, I think technical analysis is bull." I've heard this opinion very frequently, and I've even held this opinion in the past. But from watching stocks for several years I've seen certain price moves that seem to occur again and again. Sure enough, these movements are some of the most fundamental elements of technical analysis; for example, support, resistance, uptrend, etc. I've seen many people who don't know any technical analysis but reference a stock's breakout on its "graph" -- just from watching stocks trade, they have realized this is often a sign of future profits to come.
As I began studying technical analysis more frequently, I learned more about the skill -- moving averages, indicators, oscillators, and so on. Many of these tools, in my opinion, do in fact have predictive value in the stock market. More importantly, these tools allow traders to more effectively and systematically (therefore, less emotionally) manage their money.
All this being said, I think the editor was right in one regard -- I have a lot of trouble believing in patterns (e.g., "Head and Shoulders") because I think that many of these are way too objective when it comes to trading. I also find that they are harder to explain than many other tenets of technical analysis, such as support and resistance.
I've been on all sides of the technical analysis argument -- extraordinarily against, emotionally for, and everything in between. As it stands now, I feel like it's just another tool in the toolbox for a trader and there's no reason not to consider it.
Continue reading 'You know, I think technical analysis is bull'
Posted Aug 2nd 2007 10:35AM by Kevin Kelly (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and Raves, Amazon.com (AMZN)

Following
Amazon's (NASDAQ:
AMZN) stellar earnings report, I
told BloggingStocks readers that I'd be betting against the stock after this bounce as a result of the shorts being done covering and longs being fully involved in their positions.
Interestingly, Amazon-bull Georges Yared rebutted my post with
Amazon: A giant in the making. He made the interesting points that Amazon is a "stalled-story" and that everyone on Wall Street had to load up on the stock to rebalance their portfolios.
While I tend to believe that Amazon, up almost 200% in the last year, isn't too "stalled," I wouldn't disagree that it's a great company. However, as I pointed out in a
rebuttal post, our reasons and time frames for holding our opinions on the company varied and, as a result, it made sense that we held different opinions.
As of now, if I held a short position in the stock I'd be putting in a stop to ensure that my gains are protected. With a gain of about 10% in roughly a week, this wasn't a shabby trade. However, I still think the stock will fill the gap and move down another few points.
Posted Jul 15th 2007 9:10AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Management, Consumer Experience, Starbucks (SBUX)
With the strength of this year's equities market, one major company that has not participated in the updraft is Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX). Actually, quite the opposite has happened as the shares have gone from about $36 down to the current price of $26.07. Down ten points has been disappointing, especially in a bull market, but I believe the time has come to re-examine this company and start buying the stock.
Starbucks operates on a fiscal year ending September 30. I estimate that for this year they will earn about $.87 per share, with September 2008 earnings at $1.07 per share. Commensurate revenues look like $9.5 billion this year and $11.4 billion next year. With the market capitalization at $19.3 billion, Starbucks is trading at less than two times next year's revenues. That's one buy signal, as growth companies tend to sell from three to five times forward revenues.
I recommended Starbucks last October to the members of my web site to buy at $29, and then I recommended a sell at $39 in December because the stock price got ahead of itself. I thought the shares could be repurchased in the low $30s sometime in the first half of this year. The stock is well-below that number to the mid $20s. What has happened to Starbucks is not too atypical of excellent long-term growth companies: they hit a small wall or detour along the way. Starbucks has been hampered by just okay same-store sales and rising dairy prices. Although it did not miss the March quarter expectations, it did not provide any upside to that quarter either. The froth came off the stock. The June quarter will more than likely come right in-line with consensus expectations of $2.4 billion of revenues and $.21 in earnings per share.
Continue reading Must be time to pick up a little Starbucks
Posted Jul 14th 2007 9:40AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Industry, Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), , , Wells Fargo (WFC)
The Dow Jones is up over 11% for the year so far and the euphoria on Wall Street has certainly hit Main Street. The one sector that has not participated in this rally is major U.S., large-cap banks. The stock performance of the major six banks has been as low as down 10% to flat -- in other words lousy. The six major banks are Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). So is time to start nibbling away at these stocks?
The central issue is the state of the subprime mortgage market. All of these banks are major mortgage players in the United States, from coast to coast. As the earnings season was approaching with first quarter results, many thought the answers would be evident and that the issue would be a memory. All six reported very good, solid first quarter results, and reserve requirements were raised for the year to absorb defaulted mortgages. Washington Mutual explained that they were aggressively working with the subprime customers to refinance their loans before the problems got worse. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Wachovia followed suit.
The earnings were strong for the first quarter and guidance for the calender year 2007 stayed the same, no lowering of forward expectations. Dividends are absolutely solid in terms of earnings/dividend coverage, and the yields are mouth-watering. The yields on the big six range from 3.2% to 5.2%.
The stocks have been flat to down as the mortgage issue is not yet totally resolved. The housing market is still a troubling aspect of the economy, with no real relief in sight until at least 2008. That factor has kept these stocks depressed. But remember, you want to buy when no one else is.
Continue reading The big six U.S. banks: Is it time to buy?
Posted Jun 23rd 2007 3:10PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, NIKE, Inc'B' (NKE), Crocs Inc (CROX)
Back on February 21, I began a series of articles on Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX). I have been recommending the stock to the members of the Insiders Insights club of my website since late 2006, when the stock was trading at $40 -- that's before the 2-for-1 split. Those shares are currently at almost $94. On a split basis the stock is above $46. Basically, my members have more than doubled their money in the past six months. Great investment, good timing. What to do now with this controversial company? Where can it go from here?
I have written that Crocs is not a fad, Crocs is an emerging, global phenomenon, and that Crocs even has the opportunity to become the next Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE). The controversy surrounding Crocs involves the love-it or hate-it relationship with its shoes. People fall very heavily into one camp or another -- there's very little neutrality on this subject!
What makes Crocs a full-blown phenomenon is its extraordinary distribution model. 11,500 domestic-retail, distribution outlets and 12,500 international distribution outlets. Crocs distributes through third-party vendors, therefore not needing its own bricks-and-mortar set-up. It's brilliant as Crocs generates gross margins in the 60%+ range and its "real estate" is someone else's. With this model, Crocs generates operating profit margins in the 25-27% range. This is what appeals to institutional investors! I cannot emphasize this point enough. Young, start-up companies hope -- hope -- to have operating margins in the mid-20's% upon maturity, but to have these margins during the build-up stage is just remarkable. Besides its great sequential quarterly revenue growth, the operating margins "is the story"!
Continue reading Crocs: Is it fairly valued?
Posted Jun 20th 2007 8:30AM by Trey Thoelcke (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Oracle Corp (ORCL)
Since its upside surprise when it reported last quarter, enterprise software giant Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) has continued with its philosophy of growth through acquisition by acquiring LODESTAR Corp., which supplies software solutions to utilities, as well as product lifecycle management leader Agile Software Corp. (NASDAQ: AGIL). And the share price has been trending upward the past three months.
But it hasn't all been peaches and cream. Billionaire George Soros recently shifted his focus away from Oracle and some other tech stocks in favor of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). BloggingStocks contributor Georges Yared thinks Oracle's glory days, in terms of growth, may be behind it, and even that it may be a stock for suckers.
Oracle's rivalry with Germany-based SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) continues, of course, not only in the courtroom -- Oracle recently added copyright infringement to its theft charges against SAP -- but also into small and medium-sized companies, where some early indicators suggest Oracle may have the edge. Oddly enough, there has been speculation that Oracle may try to acquire SAP, unlikely though that may be, after it was rumored that Oracle has been purchasing SAP stock.
But Oracle remains part of the Fortune 500, and BloggingStocks contributor Brent Archer thinks the stock might be a bargain. One analyst upgraded Oracle just last week. According to Thomson Financial, Wall Street consensus rates ORCL a buy (12 strong buy, 11 buy, 12 hold). When Oracle reports earnings on June 26, analysts expect earnings per share for this quarter to come in at 35 cents, compared to 25 cents actual from last quarter, and 25 cents a year ago. Its market cap is $96.8 billion, and its P/E ratio is 18.95 (the industry average is 23.49). The consensus price target is $21.25; the 52-week low was $13.77 in July of 2006 and $19.95 last week. It closed Tuesday at $19.88.
Posted Jun 9th 2007 12:10PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Conventions and Conferences, Competitive Strategy, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL)
Beginning Monday June11, thousands of very technically talented people will descend into San Francisco for the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference 2007. The conference runs through Friday June 15. There are over 100 separate and distinct technical presentations and mini-lab sessions on the schedule. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will use the opportunity to make sure everyone in attendance gets a beta-copy of the new Leopard operating system, due out in October, and of course the buzz will be the new iPhone.
Apple has been strategically advertising the iPhone on television and other media with the final message "due out June 29." The early adopters will sing its praises and the various media representatives will be there to capture every word. But what else does Apple have up its sleeve?
I wrote on May 31 that Apple and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have emerged as the two distinguished leaders in the technology sector. Both have hit new 52-week highs and the momentum in their respective earnings and revenues is compelling. They have taken over from the old guard.
Rumors have been circulating that Apple and Google will formalize a strategic relationship. Basically, Apple has grown weary of its dependence on Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Office Suite, and Apple CEO Steven Jobs has indicated that Mac needs to "catch up." If Apple decides to include the Google suite of internet applications, it could be a blockbuster union of these two titans and a serious blow to Microsoft. Google's suite would include e-mail, spreadsheets, maps, and general document management.
Continue reading Apple will shine this week
Posted Jun 3rd 2007 4:10PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Products and Services, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The next company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Wind River Systems (NASDAQ: WIND). Wind river is headquartered in Alameda, California, and has a market capitalization of $925 million. Wind River Systems is a technology company that virtually touches our daily lives, and yet 99% of us have no clue what Wind River does or how it affects us!
Wind River offers a suite of technical products, primarily software based, that allow software developers and electrical engineers to laser-beam focus the functionality of a semi-conductor chip. Wind's tools are employed to optimize the functionality and the speed of a device. So, in English what does all this mean? Well, for example,the air-bags in an automobile serve a singular, powerful function -- deploying in the event of an accident. Wind River Systems product suite for the automotive industry facilitates the semi-conductor chip that governs the air-bag's "brain center." Does the force or the angle of the impact merit deployment of the air-bag? The decision by the embedded chip is figured out in miliseconds. Wind River's software developed for the chip enables that specific functionality in an instant. It's a single purpose, real-time operating system designed specifically for that application. There, easy right?
Wind River sells its suite of products to the avionics industry, automotive, digital imaging manufacturers, internet router makers, medical device companies, mobile and handset makers. Wind River has established strategic relationships and partnerships with IBM, Intel, Texas Instruments, Motorola, Toshiba MIPS, and many more. Wind's suite of software development, debugging, and testing products are the industry standard for reliability and accuracy. Wind River sells its products worldwide, employing a direct sales and technical force. The complexity of customer projects requires Wind River to be available for training and complex technical support.
Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Wind River Systems
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