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Does Jeff Bewkes have a credible vision for making Time Warner (TWX) a good investment?

Jeff Bewkes, the Stanford MBA behind HBO's huge success, took over as CEO of BloggingStocks' parent, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) this January. The New York Times reports that he wants to get rid of everything he inherited except selected "content providers" -- e.g., people who make movies and TV programs and write articles in magazines. But would such a strategy make Time Warner's stock an attractive investment?

I don't think so. The reason is simple. Warner Brothers produced an enormous hit with Dark Knight -- the LA Times reports that its revenues so far total $441 million domestically and are expected to hit $520 million. Dark Knight's success is not typical -- it's an outlier. That's because the movie business is a huge gamble as is any enterprise that depends on the fickle combination of talent and audience tastes. Hollywood often overcomes this problem by getting wealthy individuals to pony up to finance films on the hope that they might get to rub elbows with the stars.

Meanwhile, Bewkes wants to dump the cable business. He plans to spin off 84% of Time Warner Cable to shareholders. He plans to sell AOL. And it looks like he'll try to dispense with most of Time Warner's magazines. This would leave Time Warner a much smaller company with lower return on assets -- by my rough estimate based on doubling the revenues and operating income of its first half results for the remaining Filmed Entertainment and Networks segments.

Continue reading Does Jeff Bewkes have a credible vision for making Time Warner (TWX) a good investment?

Using Google (GOOG) Earth to profit from the CEO edifice complex

The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] details some fascinating research on how activities in a CEO's private life affect his or her company's profitability or stock price. The most useful idea here is that investors can use Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Google Earth to spot short selling opportunities.

One aspect of this research that did not surprise me was that if the CEO builds a huge home -- greater than 10,000 square feet -- the company's stock price declines. I have long noticed that when a company builds a huge new corporate headquarters building or names a sports stadium after itself, trouble often follows for investors in its stock. The reason for this link? The CEO is more focused on personal glorification than on expanding profits.

But what I found surprising and intrusive was that deaths in a CEO's family influence company profitability, according to a study by Danish researchers of 75,000 companies there. Here's the post-event change in return on assets of various deaths in a CEO's family:

Continue reading Using Google (GOOG) Earth to profit from the CEO edifice complex

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 05:42 PM

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