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Russia to invest in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds

In a development likely to be warmly-received by international finance and stock markets, Russia announced Thursday it will buy Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds through its sovereign wealth funds, Russia's Finance Ministry said and Bloomberg News reported.

Russia will invest money from its Reserve Fund and National Wellbeing Fund into 15 government bond funds in Europe and the United States, including those in Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Russia will also purchase government bonds in the U.K., Germany, France, Austria, Canada, and the Netherlands, Bloomberg News reported.

Both Fannie, down 56 cents $29.27, and Freddie, down 80 cents to $27.94, moved lower Thursday afternoon; however it should be noted that the declines occurred during a broad market sell-off, with the Dow down 159 points to 12,267.

Continue reading Russia to invest in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds

Pricey Wheaties: Grain prices surging on emerging market demand

First oil. Then copper, then lumber, and coal. And now grain.

The solid economic growth in the world's emerging markets that's caused oil / coal and commodities prices to surge is now fully hitting the grain market.

So much so, that some food producers are calling on the U.S. government to restrict exports due to soaring prices for grains they use to make cereal and other foods. Meanwhile, some farmers are asking the U.S. Government to ease restrictions to enable farmers to plant more acres, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday [Subscription required].

For food producers, the issue involves limiting a major operating cost. During the past year, spring wheat has risen to an astounding $17.63 per bushel, up from about $4.90 a year ago. Flour, which used to cost about $15 per 100 pounds, now sells for about $45-48 per 100 pounds. Food producers say prices are increasing so fast, they can't pass along price increases quick enough to keep up.

Continue reading Pricey Wheaties: Grain prices surging on emerging market demand

Global economic confidence drops for third straight month

Confidence in the global economy fell for the third straight month in February 2008, as North Americans became more pessimistic about the slowing U.S. economy and its impact on global growth, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 14.3 in February 2008 from 21.0 in January 2008, Bloomberg News reported. Further, although North America respondents were the most pessimistic about economic conditions in their region, Asia respondents were the most pessimistic about the global economy.

Global equity markets have lost more than $6 trillion this year as investors fled financial and cyclical stocks on fears mortgage and mortgage-asset defaults will continue to slow both U.S. economic growth and also restrict access to credit that corporations need to conduct business and expand operations.

Continue reading Global economic confidence drops for third straight month

IEA cuts 2008 world oil demand forecast on slower global growth

Global oil demand in 2008 will total 87.6 million barrels per day, about 200,000 barrels less than an initial 2008 estimate, due to slowing global economic growth, the International Energy Agency announced Wednesday.

The IEA said demand for transportation fuels in the eastern U.S. and other developed nations is slowing. However, the IEA added that projections for robust economic growth in China and the Middle East will continue to help support oil prices in 2008.

Oil fell 42 cents to $92.36 per barrel in mid-day Wednesday trading.

"Weaker projections for global economic growth are offset by low stocks, forecast cold weather in the U.S. and parts of Asia, supply disruptions (Nigeria/North Sea) and concern about Venezuelan supplies. Products have underperformed crude, leading to weak refining margins," the IEA stated.

Continue reading IEA cuts 2008 world oil demand forecast on slower global growth

IMF says 2008 global GDP growth to slow to 4.1% on U.S. downturn

Global GDP growth has slowed and will continue to slow to 4.1% in 2008, dragged lower by the slow-growth U.S. economy, the International Monetary Fund announced Tuesday in its revised World Economic Outlook. The IMF's previous global GDP growth estimate for 2008 was 4.9%.

[Note: In its report, the IMF said it has revised the model it uses to measure growth, a qualitative change that reduced GDP growth forecasts in 2005-2008 by 0.5%, or by one-half percentage point. ]

In lowering its 2008 growth estimate, the IMF said there was a risk that the ongoing turmoil in financial markets would further reduce domestic demand in advanced economies with more significant spillovers into emerging market and developing countries.

"Growth in emerging market countries that are heavily dependent on capital inflows could be particularly affected, while the strong momentum of domestic demand in some emerging market countries provides upside potential," the IMF said.

Economic growth in the United States "appears to have slowed notably in the fourth quarter of 2007, with recent indicators showing weakening of manufacturing and housing sector activity, employment, and consumption."

Continue reading IMF says 2008 global GDP growth to slow to 4.1% on U.S. downturn

Say it ain't so: OPEC may cut oil production this spring

OPEC is said to be evaluating a potential production cut this spring, but is likely to keep its output quota the same when in meets Friday in Vienna, The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported.

OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world's oil, is said to be concerned that the U.S. economic slowdown could hurt oil demand growth. Oil traded 77 cents lower to $89.94 per barrel in Monday afternoon trading. Heating oil fell about 2 cents to $2.50 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined 1 cent to $2.30 per gallon. Natural gas fell about 1 cent to $7.99 per million BTUs.

OPEC expects global oil demand of 87.4 million barrels per day in Q1 2008 and 85.5 million in Q2 2008. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency expects slightly higher demand during the two periods, 88.2 million in Q1 2008 and 86.7 million in Q2 2008.

Continue reading Say it ain't so: OPEC may cut oil production this spring

Ray of light: CBO says U.S. economy will avoid recession in 2008

Ray of light It goes without saying that the U.S. economy has had its share of negative data points and projections recently.

Continued subprime mortgage defaults and related asset write-offs. Declining corporate profits. A perpetual trade deficit. The first yearly decline in median home prices in more than 40 years. Declining consumer confidence. Paraphrasing the understated former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, these are not the most encouraging signs with respect to economic activity.

Are there any rays of light on the U.S. macroeconomic horizon? Indeed there are, and one originated from an unlikely source: the Congressional Budget Office.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. economy is unlikely to fall into a recession in 2008, and that an economic rebound could start as early as next year.

Continue reading Ray of light: CBO says U.S. economy will avoid recession in 2008

European Central Bank head offers no hint of rate cuts

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the European Central Bank needs to maintain its inflation-fighting stance, amid a very significant, ongoing market correction, Reuters reported Wednesday.

Trichet said, "In demanding times of significant market correction and turbulences, it is the responsibility of the central bank to solidly anchor inflation expectations to avoid additional volatility in already highly volatile markets," Reuters reported.

Many economists and analysts had hoped that the ECB would modify its inflation-focused stance in the face of mounting evidence of a U.S. economic slowdown and concerns that a prolong U.S. slowdown would slow global growth. Asian and European markets sold off more than 5%, and the U.S.'s Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 400 points Tuesday, before the U.S. Federal Reserve cut key, short-term interest rates by 75 basis points in an emergency meeting.

Europe's major stock exchanges in London, Frankfurt and Paris continued their slide Wednesday, falling about 2% across the board by mid-day, The Financial Times reported.

Continue reading European Central Bank head offers no hint of rate cuts

With the Fed having cut rates, all eyes turn to ECB, Bank of England

The interest rate cut cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve is not over -- far from it -- economists/analysts said Tuesday, but along with way it will need to get a little help from its friends, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, to combat a potential global economic downturn.

On Tuesday the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.50%. The comparable U.K. and ECB interest rates are at 5.50% and 4.00%, respectively.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Tuesday afternoon he believes both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will have two motivations to lower interest rates.

Continue reading With the Fed having cut rates, all eyes turn to ECB, Bank of England

IBM's magic formula: it's good to be a multinational

It's been mostly doom-and-gloom on Wall Street. But somehow IBM (NYSE: IBM) has found a magic formula for success.

In fiscal Q4, IBM posted a 10% increase in revenues to $28.9 billion, with net income up 12% to $3.95 billion, or $2.80 per share. What's more, the company expects the good times to continue – with full-year earnings per share growth of 15%. (See the full transcript of the company's earnings conference call with investors).

What's going on? Well, a key is IBM's massive global footprint as well as extensive offerings. For example, the company has been aggressively buying software companies, such as Cognos. These deals not only improve growth rates but also margins.

Something else: Keep in mind that a variety of developing nations are investing large sums in their infrastructures. And, isn't IBM a good partner for this?

Actually, it's not just countries like China and India that are seeing substantial growth. There are other hot spots, such as Malaysia, Poland, South Africa, Ecuador, the Czech Republic, and so on.

Of the 170 countries that IBM does business with, there are 50 that are experiencing growth rates in excess of 10%. Interestingly enough, IBM is calling this the "Gold Rush of the 21st century."

In other words, it looks like IBM's growth is more than just a short-term blip.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

ECB, BOE keep benchmark interest rates unchanged

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both kept benchmark interest rates the same Thursday, The Associated Press reported -- a monetary policy status-quo for at least the time being, as economists and analysts await further data on the extent of the U.S. economic slow down.

The ECB kept its key rate, the refinance rate, at 4%, while the BOE maintained its rate at 5.5%.

The central banks' decision had a mixed impact on the currency markets, with the
euro rising about 1 cent to $1.4737, and the pound remaining virtually unchanged versus the dollar at $1.9588.

Somewhat surprised by BOE


Currency trader Andrew Resnick, told BloggingStocks Thursday traders were somewhat surprised by the Bank of England's stand-pat decision, less so by the ECB verdict.

"Many thought the Bank of England might lower rates slightly, given the softness they're beginning to see in consumer spending and housing," Resnick said. "The ECB was not a surprise because they've been the toughest major central bank on inflation since I started trading 10 years ago."

Continue reading ECB, BOE keep benchmark interest rates unchanged

In reversal, poorer countries, not U.S., seen boosting 2008 global GDP

Continued robust growth in developing countries will counteract an economic slowdown in the United States, but overall global economic growth will slow to a more-modest 3.6% rate, the World Bank announced Wednesday.

The bank's 3.6% global growth forecast is down 0.3 percentage point from 3.9% in 2006, a downturn that's primarily attributable to slower growth in high-income countries. The Washington, D.C.-based international bank also sees 2008 global GDP growth of 3.6%.

GDP growth in developing countries is expected to total 7.1% in 2008, while growth in high-income countries is expected to increase a modest 2.2% next year, the bank said.

Continue reading In reversal, poorer countries, not U.S., seen boosting 2008 global GDP

The Fed's quandary: Stimulate economy, but not inflation

A housing sector that remains in correction mode, to put it diplomatically; a contracting manufacturing sector; declining auto sales; a pull-back in consumer spending; anemic job growth -- historically, these would signal a no-doubt-about-it easing monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy.

But hold on, the nation's economic landscape is not that simple, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would no doubt tell you.

Inflation, at both the consumer and producer levels, is rearing its ugly head. Fanned higher by the near-record price of crude oil, inflation is already above the Federal Reserve's target zone (also called the Fed's "comfort zone"), and is likely to move higher later this year if +$80 per barrel oil persists. (Oil fell $1.90 to $97.28 Friday afternoon on fears of a U.S. recession.)

Continue reading The Fed's quandary: Stimulate economy, but not inflation

Harsh headwind: Some pensions reducing U.S. stock stakes

Under the category of "the stock market did not need this additional headwind," some of the largest public pension funds have been selling shares in a big way, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The Journal said the New York State Teachers' Retirement System, the New York State Common Retirement Fund, the Teacher Retirement System of Texas and the Florida Retirement System Pension Plan are all funds that are reducing stakes in U.S. companies. Collectively, these funds control more than $500 billion in assets.

Further, and equally significant, the nation's largest fund, the $250-billion California Public Employees' Retirement System (Calpers) is considering shedding its home-country bias, the Sacramento Bee reported.

One plan calls for Calpers to reduce U.S. equities exposure to 28.4% from 40% and increase international equities exposure to 28.4% from 20%. The Calpers Board of Directors is expected to vote on the measure next month.

Continue reading Harsh headwind: Some pensions reducing U.S. stock stakes

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 03:06 PM

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