global investing posts
FeedPosted Sep 18th 2008 5:00PM by Nancy Zambell (RSS feed)
Filed under: China
I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Edmund Harriss, investment director of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, who continues to like Asia despite its big selloff.
Q. Your Asia Focus Fund and China & Hong Kong Fund have stellar three- and five-year returns, but have not been immune from the recent global market slowdown. Many commentators have forecast the end of the China "bubble," cautioning that after the Olympics, China's fortunes may suffer. But you disagree, correct?
A. I believe China's growth prospects still look good in spite of the global slowdown. China's economy has benefited in the past from an export boom, and this will be hit by slowing demand from the US and Europe. But we should not forget that China has a substantial domestic economy which, although linked to external trade, does not depend on it exclusively. The Olympic Games caused production to slow as factories were closed to reduce pollution during the Games, but we now expect that to pick up.
China's prospects can still be heavily influenced by policy decisions which are backed up with significant reserves and budget surpluses. Since last year, the authorities have maintained a tightening bias as inflation rose to a peak of 8.7%. Now, [with inflation] at 6.3% in July and set to fall further, the government has shifted to a pro-growth bias. We expect to see some concrete announcements, which could include energy price adjustments to address the recent supply shortages of electricity and diesel fuel; tax boosts to support exporters; selected easing of bank lending controls, and slower currency appreciation against the US dollar.
Q. What is your near- and long-term forecast for the region?
Continue reading Global Q&A: A true believer in Asia
Posted Aug 13th 2008 5:55PM by Guest blogger (RSS feed)
Filed under: China, Middle East, U.S. Steel (X), BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (BHP), Rio Tinto plc ADS (RIO), Commodities, Stocks to Buy,
Eoin Treacy of Fullermoney says that as commodities prices weaken, you need to look carefully before investing. Q. Eoin, I've read that China's annual consumption of copper has declined from a 28.66% growth rate to 2.4%. What does that mean for continued growth in China and also for the global copper market?
A. China and indeed much of Asia and the Middle East are in a generational-long period where they have to build infrastructure from the ground up. The push for educating, housing, transporting and employing large young populations requires massive investment, fueling demand for commodities across the boards.
The supply side was completely taken unawares by this demand following the 20-year crushing bear market that cut exploration budgets to the bone. That is now changing, as major mining groups compete for the best resources, particularly in politically stable parts of the world.
China continues to lead the world in terms of GDP growth, although it has recently manufactured a slowdown to combat rising inflation, generally positive for the economy.
Continue reading Global Q & A: Conserve your resources
Posted Jul 28th 2008 9:50AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
"Ireland is attracting global value hunters," says fund expert Carl Delfeld, of Chartwell ETF Advisors, who takes a contrarian look at the closed-end New Ireland Fund (NYSE: IRL).
"My ETF pick for the week is in honor of John Templeton not just because of his meeting his final summons this week at age 95 but because it highlights one of the key tenets of his legendary investment career. Templeton's first maxim was to buy at the point of 'maximum pessimism'. IRL trades at a 15% discount to net asset value.
"Ireland has gone from darling to outcast in less than a year in the eyes of the global investment community. Rather than look for markets that were performing well, Sir John built a career looking for troubled or ignored markets that traded at attractive valuations.
"Due to vastly overvalued property markets and loose banking and fiscal policy, the market is done close to 70% since last fall. It's growth rate has averaged 7-8% during the past decade but growth prospects have been officially lowered to zero for 2009 and its economy actually shrank in the first quarter of this year.
"To make matters worse, property prices in the posh retail areas of Dublin have already dropped 50% and home prices have fallen 20%. Ireland's stock market is now the cheapest market in the world based on forward price earnings and price to book."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Posted Jul 25th 2008 10:35AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, India, China, Brazil, Russia, Newsletters, Canada, Commodities, Oil, Agriculture, Stocks to Buy
"The acronym 'BRIC-standing for Brazil, Russia, India, and China-is in vogue as shorthand for the emergence of the developing world.
"But we're herewith proposing an emended version: 'BRAC'-standing for Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada.
"That's because these four countries are the ones most brimming over with essential natural resource, with each one a net exporter of fuels and other natural products. In a world where resource shortages will only get worse, these countries will stand out from the pack.
"Don't get us wrong. China and India remain the largest and fastest growing emerging economies and still face exceptional futures.
"But their major resources are cheap labor, which will become less cheap as their economies keep growing. Indeed, labor costs in these countries already have begun to rise relative to the rest of the world.
"Meanwhile, continued gains in commodities mean that Australia and Canada are gaining relative to the rest of the world. It's hard to overstate just how important relative resource independence is in a world where resources are becoming ever more scarce and expensive.
Continue reading Changing BRIC for BRAC: A new look for global investors
Posted Jun 3rd 2008 1:24PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
"You may not have your eye on Alcon Inc. (NYSE: ACL), but if you wear contact lenses, suffer from dry eyes, worry about glaucoma, or even if you have hay-fever, you may have bought ACL products," notes global expert Frida Ghitis.
Here, the contributing advisor to Vivian Lewis' Global Investing, explains, "This Swiss eye drug giant has with its eyes on both the bottom line and the pipeline.
"As the world's largest eye care company, ALC has excellent management, stellar performance, promising demographics, and an intriguing ownership structure.
"Demographics bode well. Aging eyes need attention. Demand will rise for glaucoma medication, dry eye treatments, and other Alcon top sellers. As emerging markets grow their middle class, eye-care will be affordable by millions more people.
Continue reading Keep an eye on Alcon (ACL)
Posted May 28th 2008 1:44PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, India, China, Brazil, Russia, Middle East, Thailand, Newsletters, Mutual Funds, Mexico, Eastern Europe, Stocks to Buy
Paul Tracy believes Templeton Emerging Markets (NYSE: EMF) is a buy due to the emerging market expertise of its manager, Mark Mobius. Here's the latest from his from The ETF Authority.
"Emerging markets can dangerous waters for U.S. investors. These markets often have little to no analyst coverage and can be highly inefficient.
"As such, this is an area where expert active management can be well worth the higher price tag. And despite charging 1.55% in annual expenses, the Templeton Emerging Markets Fund certainly falls into that category.
"Given the potential pitfalls, it's reassuring to know that this fund is overseen by Dr. Mark Mobius -- a battle-tested veteran with decades of experience dealing with these uncertain stocks.
"While most funds have no discretion when it comes to making tactical decisions, Mobius and his team have the flexibility to steer clear of troubled regions or sectors -- and overweight those that look particularly promising.
Continue reading Mark Mobius guides Templeton Emerging (EMF)
Posted Apr 3rd 2008 1:42PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, China, Newsletters, Commodities, Eastern Europe, Stocks to Buy, Green Stocks
Two leading global experts have both turned bullish on France's Veolia Environnement (NYSE: VE). Vivian Lewis, in her Global Investing, notes, "Veolia is the way to play the 'water works square' on the monopoly board."
Nicholas Vardy, editor of Global Stock Investor suggests, "The smart money is betting that water may be the 'oil of the 21st century.' And Veolia is my number one way to profit from this global megatrend."
Vivan Lewis says, "We recommend buying French water and sewage conglomerate Veolia at current prices; the stock has been brought down by niggling Euro-concern about its levels of debt. The company is also being penalized for acquisitions.
"Veolia is the former Générale des Eaux, a municipal service firm. This history creates an image problem for VE which is seen as a utility.
"Our main reason for the buy, apart from price, is that this is a fast growing company with good earnings in a hot sector. In 2007, VE had revneues of euros 32.6 bn, up 14% on which its recurring net profit fost 22.5% to euros 933.2 mn. Earnings per share were euros 2.16, up 13.7%.
"Another reason for liking VE is that it is moving into China big-time, with waterworks in Tianshin and Shibai and environmental service in Juijiang. All in all, France still represents 44% of sales and the rest of Europe 36%. VE does about 10% of its business in the U.S. and the Chinese are part of the remainder.
Continue reading Veolia (VE): Global experts invest in water
Posted Mar 7th 2008 1:42PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, India, China, Brazil, Russia, Newsletters, Commodities, Eastern Europe, Agriculture, Stocks to Buy
"U.S. Global Investors (Nasdaq: GROW) has been growing its revenue and earnings at an accelerated pace
over the last few years, notes Horacio Marquez, adding "And that pace is about to pick up after a recent mild respite."
The contributing editor to The Money Map explains, "We expect very strong gains in this stock to come in short order." Here, he looks at the fund management firm.
"The reason is very simple. If you couple some of the best minds in emerging-market investments and commodity
investments with a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative approach, you get consistently top-performing
funds with eye-popping returns.
"Last year, four of the firm's equity funds, – representing more than 80% of the money under management –
were among the top performers in the overall U.S. mutual fund universe, in the one- and 10-year time
periods.
"And in the fund-management business, strong, consistent fund performance drives growth in assets under management. And since growth in assets under management drives fees, it is no surprise that this company has
been able to achieve operating income growth rates of between 27% to 94% over the last 10 years.
"In fact, the company should see accelerating earnings growth in the second half, as the interest rates cuts favor higher commodity prices and emerging-market investments – areas in which U.S. Global's funds excel.
Continue reading Money Map points to growth for U.S. Global (GROW)
Posted Feb 22nd 2008 9:35AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
In a post earlier this week, we looked at two of Warren Buffett's positions in transportation stocks. He has also revealed in SEC filings that Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) has bought 1.51 million ADRs of GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK).
Vivian Lewis, who holds GSK in her Global Investing portfolio, explains, "GlaxoSmithKline is off 22% since our purchase late in 2006, so how nice that the Oracle of Omaha sprung for it now. Why did he?
1) The stock has a a 4.5% yield, always nice. Buffett is a value player, not a growth man, especially in the current economy. Drugs are refuges in a downturn;
2) A recently defused scandal over its lead drug, diabetes treatment Avandia, whose nasty side-effects (heart trouble) surprised doctors and researchers. The heart trouble also affects competing diabetes drugs, result of too-rigorous attempts to 'normalize' blood sugar levels. There will be lawsuits but they ignore the fact that the side-effect was unanticipated;
Continue reading Buffett buys into GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Posted Jan 2nd 2008 11:03AM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Rants and Raves, Market Matters, Serious Money, Federal Reserve
All this recession talk has not convinced me that we are destined to have one, and I see plenty of signs that 2008 might surprise to the upside. There are plenty of problems within the US economy, and I could make a case that there is a possibility that the economy might catch cold but remedies also exist. I see the cup as half full for the stock market. This is not to say that individuals will not have to deal with hard times, they will - but the market might shine. This can happen because the market is global.
Many widely followed investment icons have a different perspective, including renowned international investor Jim Rogers in the December issue of Fortune who said, "In my view, the U.S. economy is in recession. I know the government says we're not. But as I look around, we know that automobiles are in worse than recession. The same thing is true for home-builders. Much of the financial sector is in worse than recession. So many parts of America are in worse than recession, and yet the government says we're not in a recession. I don't know what's so strong that it's offsetting these major weaknesses in the American economy. I just assume that the government is lying."
I can agree that the government is lying, but I can't agree that the economy is void of positives. There is plenty that is going strong in the economy. The defense sector is going strong as I reported on recently Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year and there is every indication this will continue.
Continue reading Serious Money: No recession in 2008
Posted Dec 31st 2007 6:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Israel, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Elbit Medical Imaging Ltd. (NASDAQ: EMITF) -- my top speculative idea for 2008 -- is about to change its name to Elbit Imaging, following shareholder approval," notes Vivian Lewis in her Global Investing Pro. Vivian was the top performer in last year's Best Stocks report, with her selection of DryShips rising nearly 400%.
"EMITF is a subsidiary of Europe Israel (M.M.S.) Ltd., which operates in the construction, operation, management and sale of shopping and entertainment centers in Israel, Central and Eastern Europe, and India.
"The company also owns hotels, primarily in major European cities, and manages and sells hotels through its Elscint Ltd. subsidiary.
"The company is also involved in investments in the research and development, production, and marketing of magnetic resonance imaging guided focused ultrasound treatment equipment, through its subsidiary InSightec Ltd.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Top stock picker picks Elbit Medical (EMITF)
Posted Dec 29th 2007 11:45AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Mexico, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Although high oil prices and a weak US dollar are hurting some vacation areas, these trends are also creating enormous opportunities; indeed, Mexico is a country where the dollar still gets you a fistful of pesos and a plane ticket doesn't cost as much as an oil well," says Frida Ghitis, contributing editor for Global Investing.
"Aeropuertos del Sureste (NYSE: ASR), known as ASUR, operates nine airports," explains Ghitis. "Want to visit Mexico's Caribbean coast, luxury resorts, and nearby Mayan ruins? Unless you go by sea, chances are that you'll have to stop by one of ASUR's airports.
"One of its airports is the newly expanded Cancun facility, which saw almost ten million passengers last year. Every passenger pays airport fees, and every dollar spent on food, drinks, or gifts at the airport adds to the bottom line.
"Most of the airports are in the Southeast of the country, but the company also runs the facilities in the key tourist destinations of Oaxaca and Huatulco on the Pacific. Altogether, some 13 million passengers traveled through the company's airports last year.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: A high-flyer with Aeropuertos del Sureste (ASR)
Posted Dec 24th 2007 1:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My favorite aggressive idea for 2008 is an exchange-traded fund, the New Ireland Fund (NYSE: IRL)," says Carl Delfeld, president of global investment advisory firm Chartwell Partners.
The advisor explains, "New Ireland Fund is a position in Chartwell's Country Rotation Portfolio. It has been hit hard lately due to concerns about Ireland's real estate slowdown and banking concerns.
"During the last month it has lost 30% and is trading at $22 compared to a 52-week high of $38. The top two companies in the fund are CRH PLC at 16% and Irish Allied Bank at 15%.
"The other holdings are fairly evenly distributed. Markets have overreacted leading to very attractive entry point for more speculative investors."
Posted Dec 23rd 2007 2:05PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"The most boring part of the stock market is foreign bank non-cumulative preferred stocks," explains Vivian Lewis, in her Global Investing Pro. (Incidentally, Vivian was the #1 performer in last year's Best Stocks report.)
"But there is money to be made if you can keep your eyes open and your wits about you. For nearly 20 years, since the vehicle was invented by Barclays plc, British (and Irish) banks have issued preferred stock in denominations attractive to yield-hungry US investors, $25 at issue.
"These preferred shares have an expiration date. They normally run for ten years, after which they may be called. (They are not always called at maturity, if the issuing bank doesn't want to repay the $25 and interest rates are close to the level at which the preferred was issued.)
"They sometimes can be called at a discount from the issue price before the ten years are up, although in a period when banks are capital-hungry this is unlikely.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: A 'preferred' play on Royal Bank of Scotland
Posted Dec 22nd 2007 2:45PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Brazil, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) is a 'swashbuckling Spaniard,'" jests Frida Ghitis, contributing editor for Global Investing.
In referring to her conservative favorite for 2008 she explains, "While the big ships of the financial industry struggled to weather a storm of their own creation in the credit markets, a solidly built craft sailed full speed ahead undeterred by the turbulence, proudly flying the Spanish flag into new and old markets.
"Banco Santander, which trades as an ADR in the US, apparently managed to tack clear of the siren call of easy subprime money in America. Instead, following in the tradition of the conquistadors, it went in search of new riches in the old world and the new.
"With branches in Europe, Africa, and the Americas, Grupo Santander has grown to become the largest bank in Europe by market capitalization, even as its competitors see their market cap wither during difficult times.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Latin America banks on Banco Santander (STD)
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