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Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

Continue reading Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

Brazil: World Is in a 'Currency War'

One disastrous international trade policy of the 1930s concerned tariffs: nations increased tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries; when applied universally, it resulted in declining export sales and trade volumes. Tariffs made the Great Depression worse.

Now, it appears, nations are on the verge of implementing another counter-productive policy -- manipulating currencies -- and if public officials are not careful, a similar downward spiral in international trade could occur.

Continue reading Brazil: World Is in a 'Currency War'

Gold Prices Surge to New Record High on Global Economic Concerns

record high gold pricesGold prices are on the move today, rising sharply and setting a new record high as traders look to the precious metal as a safe haven in an uncertain global economy.

Gold prices are currently up $25.90 to $1,271.50 an ounce, just a bit shy of the record high price of $1,274.50 it set earlier in the day.

Continue reading Gold Prices Surge to New Record High on Global Economic Concerns

Sunday Funnies: Market Reruns Not Returns

All it takes is one story to ignite the market, reverse fortune and increase volatility. In the past two weeks this has happened a lot, as the tug-of-war between bulls and bears plays out. The fervor created by headlines portrays investors with little conviction about what to do with their money.

Inflation or deflation, what can we look forward to? Is China going to blow-up its economy with its very own housing bubble? Will Greece default and others follow? Will BP p.l.c. (BP) stock fall deeper than its undersea gushing Gulf of Mexico oil well, and take other oil service companies down with it?

Does any of this matter -- yes and no.

Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Market Reruns Not Returns

Oil Prices Drop on Economic Concerns and Lowered Price Forecast

oil trades lowerOil prices continue their recent slide today, with investors spooked by the global economy and a lower price forecast by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Concerns over the economic situation in Europe continue to weigh on investor's minds, and the major indexes were down over 2% at one point today before rebounding in late day trading.

Continue reading Oil Prices Drop on Economic Concerns and Lowered Price Forecast

Dow Jones Jumps 400 Points, Now What?

So, Europe has stepped to the plate and agreed to a almost $1 trillion rescue plan to help avert a debt crisis, with the U.S. Federal Reserve pledging to do its part for overseas loans. The move has been cheered on the Street, as the major indices are significantly higher, the Dow Jones leading the way with a more than 400-point gain. This gain makes up a good portion of last week's plunge, which was driven by fears that Greece's debt problems would eventually spread to all of Europe. The fear was that such a scenario would put the future of the euro and the economies of the 16 countries using the currency in economic peril.

Continue reading Dow Jones Jumps 400 Points, Now What?

Consider U.S. Steel, Because Steel Is Back in Style

It appears the reviews of U.S. Steel (X), first discussed here on April 15, 2009 at a price of $27.61, just can't keep up with the steelmaker's performance.

Originally expected earn only a slight profit in 2010, look for U.S. Steel to return solidly to the profit side of the ledger, aided by a likely 40-50% surge in revenue this year.

The reason? The U.S./global economic recoveries, which are driving large increases in steel demand. Durable goods and big ticket items like washers, driers, and kitchen ranges require steel, and their bullish trend bodes well for X.

Continue reading Consider U.S. Steel, Because Steel Is Back in Style

Under the radar: Goldman now sees 'rather strong' global growth in 2010-11

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: One wonders how this research slipped under the radar, but it to-date hasn't received a great deal of attention from the popular press -- Goldman Sachs now expects the global economy to expand 4.4% in 2010, and 4.5% in 2011, as the world recovers from the financial crisis, Bloomberg News reported.

That contrasts with the International Monetary Fund's most recent forecast for 3.1% growth in 2010, following a -1.1% contraction in 2008.

Continue reading Under the radar: Goldman now sees 'rather strong' global growth in 2010-11

Confidence in global economy dips on monetary easing exit strategies

Confidence in the global economy dipped in November, amid concern that central bank withdrawal of some liquidity would weaken the economic recovery, a new survey of Bloomberg Terminal users indicated, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 60.3 in November from 61.7 in October. However, the index remained above 50 for the fourth straight month, which means there are more optimists than pessimists among those surveyed.

The survey of more than 1,500 Bloomberg users was conducted Nov. 2-6.

Continue reading Confidence in global economy dips on monetary easing exit strategies

CME Group to accept gold as collateral

On Friday October 16, CME Group (NYSE: CME) decided that it wants to allow customers across the globe to use gold, physical gold, as collateral on all of its exchange products (alternative investment products, futures and options, etc). The member notice was sent out on late Friday, giving instruction on how the use of gold would work. Firms are allowed to post gold as collateral up to $200 million, the collateral will cover performance bond (margin) requirements.

Continue reading CME Group to accept gold as collateral

A new hybrid sports car, an outlandish price tag ... and Al Gore

He discovered global warming; he created the Internet; and his wife shielded my young ears from curse words when I was growing up. Now Al Gore has decided it is time to single-handedly rescue the automotive world. Okay, not really, but Al Gore is a major backer of California-based Fisker Automotive, which has just secured a $529 million government loan to build a hybrid sports car in Finland.

Couple of problems here, but let's start with the idea of the car. I am so glad that Fisker is going to help the earth. I mean, who doesn't want to conserve fuel and reduce air pollution while cruising around in their four-door sports car? I mean, who doesn't have an extra $89,000 lying around to spend on transportation? Seriously, it is now at the point that only celebrities can afford a hybrid car that doesn't look like it was built of Lego.

Continue reading A new hybrid sports car, an outlandish price tag ... and Al Gore

Ray of light: Global economic confidence surges in August

Need another 'green shoot' to bolster your investment sentiment? Try this one: confidence in the global economy surged to a 22-month high in August on signs the worst global recession since the end of World War II is nearing an end.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index soared to 58.12 this month from 39.13 in July. The survey sampled more than 2,300 Bloomberg users August 3-7.

Continue reading Ray of light: Global economic confidence surges in August

Engine of growth-wise, it's a whole new ballgame for the global economy

At times, during this protracted global recession, it seems as if the entire world depended on home equity loan-fueled U.S. consumption to maintain GDP growth.

De-coupling -- the notion that the emerging market economies of China, India, Brazil and Russia were independent of the developed world, from a GDP growth standpoint, and were self-sustaining -- has been quickly dispelled. "De-coupling" has about as much validity as another ruse that made the rounds in the last boom (as it does in all expansions): the fallacy of "this time it's different" – the notion that some economic phenomenon can continue indefinitely. During the last expansion there was a widely-held view that housing prices, despite numerous metrics that showed that housing prices had hit bubble levels, could rise at double-digit rates annually, for a decade or more.

Continue reading Engine of growth-wise, it's a whole new ballgame for the global economy

Iran's great potential and its challenges!

Iran's flawed democracy is still better than most of the political systems among other countries in the region. For the past few decades the morality police, prodded by religious literalism, have mandated women to cover themselves when they are out in public. This same religious literalism has impeded the potential of a country that has a large population, in a key geographic region, with oil and other natural resources.

Iran is in the midst of a presidential election that has stimulated much heated debate among the population about the failures of the current government in economic and political terms, and that has created a feeling of isolation. The isolation is more than a feeling, and it has limited the growth of the nation to something far less than its capabilities.

Continue reading Iran's great potential and its challenges!

G-20 split on stimulus program and financial reform

The players at the G-20 summit have opened the curtain on Act 1.

First we have Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso. He holds the position that a strong stimulus program is the only means to pull Europe and the world out of the current crisis. He cited Japan's experience in the 1990s when Japan used a strong stimulus as a way to stimulate growth. He also cited Japan's current stimulus package, which amounts to $720 billion, and he even said that Japan would discuss further stimulus if the need arises.

Standing in opposition is German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She is firmly opposed to more stimulus and demands to know why it is needed. She believes that excessive public spending will not assure a vital recovery.

Continue reading G-20 split on stimulus program and financial reform

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 01:39 AM

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