An OPEC official said Friday the cartel may meet to boost output ahead of its September 2008 meeting if crude oil prices keep rising, Reuters reported Friday.
"If the price keeps going up, OPEC may consult on an increase in production before it meets in September," the OPEC source told Reuters Friday, speaking on condition that he not be identified. He added that the increase "would have to be more than 500,000 barrels per day" to have an impact.
Oil Friday hit another record high, increasing $2.20 to $126.20 per barrel Friday morning, before easing back to $125.25, on concern about production in Nigeria amid civil unrest, and on emerging market oil demand growth, particularly in China and India. Further, institutional investor demand for oil as an asset class is also contributing to oil's record rise, many analysts agree.
'Two years, $75 late'
Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Friday talk of a potential OPEC action on production is two years too late. "OPEC is two years, $75 late, I'm sorry to say," Langan said. "OPEC knew for two years that higher production was needed to help meet unprecedented emerging market demand, but they failed to act in the interests of the global economy."
As serious as the oil issue is in the United States, the west, and globally, considering its impact on economic development, circumstances could become even more challenging, in the quarters ahead, if present trends continue.
That's because, due to emerging market growth and per capita energy consumption rates in the United States - the oil -producing world "could be in a position of unprecedented pricing power," according to economist Glen Langan.
Langan says "could be" because the pricing power oil producers currently have, while significant, is not absolute. And oil-consuming nations still have time to regain some control over their oil bills. Oil Thursday reached a record high of $123.74 per barrel before closing slightly lower.
Here's the current global oil supply / demand landscape, as Langan sees it: daily global oil supply exceeds demand by the smallest of margins. It's the major reason the price of oil has been trending up for more than 5 years, but oil-consuming nations can increase that margin, via conservation, increased efficiency, and alternative sources of energy.
In a report that surprised many sector watchers, Russian oil production fell for the first time in a decade, based on year-over-year basis The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday (Subscription required).
Russia, the world's second biggest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia, averaged production of 10 million barrels per day during the first three months of this year -- a 1% drop in production when compared to the same period in 2007, The Associated Press reported Tuesday, citing International Energy Agency data.
Aging infrastructure or aging fields?
Analysts, oil industry executive, and economists will now begin the painstaking process of determining the exact cause of the production shortage. Russia has suffered from electricity shortages and poor weather conditions in oil production zones during the past year. In addition, despite Russia's impressive, 5-year economic boom and related development -- an economic expansion driven to a considerable degree by Russia's oil revenue -- the nation's oil infrastructure remains inadequate and in need of up to $50 billion in improvements and upgrades.
Independent energy trader Jim Dietz said if the current production drop stems from weather problems or infrastructure deficiencies, the oil market will largely overlook the decline, as a temporary dip.
Oil prices fell to $106 Friday morning on word that oil flows from a southern pipeline hit by saboteurs had resumed, Bloomberg News reported.
Oil fell $1.50 to $106.08 per barrel in early trading Friday. The other major energy commodities also retreated on the news. Heating oil fell about 4 cents to $3.10 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined about 2 cents to $2.70 per gallon, and natural gas rose fell 2 cents to $9.70 per million BTUs.
Iraqi oil flows through the country's southern pipeline system to the Basra export terminal returned to normal at about 10 p.m. local time Thursday, an oil official said, Bloomberg News reported Friday.
One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.
Oil Analysis: Prior to the Iraq incident, oil had been corrected to the $100 range, on likely lower oil demand and gasoline consumption stemming from the U.S. economic slowdown, and from record-high gasoline prices. However, two incidents this week, the Iraq pipe attack and a below-consensus weekly U.S. oil inventory report, caused a sudden reversal and a $7 spike in oil prices. Assuming bearish fundamentals remain the same -- and there are no further disruptions to supply globally -- traders now expect oil to resume its downward track as the spring season progresses.
Oil prices briefly jumped above $107 Thursday morning on news that saboteurs had blown up a major Iraqi export pipeline, the Agence France-Presse reported.
Oil rose $1.26 to $107.16 per barrel in early trading Thursday, before moderating some, to about $106.50. The other major energy commodities also jumped on the news in early trading Wednesday. Heating oil rose about 5 cents to $3.09 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 1 cent to $2.72 per gallon, and natural gas rose about 3 cents to $9.43 per million BTUs.
One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday, Samir al-Maksusi, Southern Oil Company spokesman, told the AFP. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.
Oil spikes
The Iraq incident marks the second consecutive day a bullish data point has pushed oil prices substantially higher, and underscores the skittish price qualities of the world's most vital commodity, according to independent energy trader Jim Dietz. Dietz said that heading into the week many traders had expected oil to continue to trend lower on sluggish demand for oil and oil products in the U.S., due to its economic slowdown.
Oil fell $1.02 to $100.82 per barrel Monday morning as traders/investors continued to lock-in profits and Saudi Arabia underscored its plans to boost production capacity, Reuters reported Monday.
The other major energy commodities were mixed in early trading Monday. Heating oil fell about 1 cent to $2.97 per gallon, unleaded gasoline rose 1 cent to $2.60 per gallon, and natural gas rose about 2 cents to $9.09 per million BTUs.
The crude oil decline Monday represents a continuation of a short-term downward trend, after oil surged more than $20 in less than two months, prompting some traders to take short-term profits, amid signs of likely slower oil demand growth in the United States.
The market early Monday was also responding to comments from Saudi Arabia, which said Sunday it is working to increase both oil production and refinery capacity in order to maintain global economic growth, according to Reuters.
Oil Analysis: The market will appreciate any comments and efforts by Saudi Arabia indicating it is striving to increase production and refining capacity. True, it takes time to increase production, but the market will take any expansion comments by the Saudis as a sign that more supply is on the way, which will lower oil prices considerably -- a welcome sight for oil importing nations and consumers.
So much for that oil slump. Oil's price pullback lasted all of one day as buyers piled back into oil futures Wednesday, sending oil surging up $5.00 to a new record close of $104.52, after OPEC said it would maintain current production quotas.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to maintain production targets at a meeting Tuesday in Vienna, Bloomberg News reported. That price-bullish reality, combined with a surprise report by the U.S. Department of Energy indicating that U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in eight weeks, was enough to send the oil pits into frenzied buyer mode, once again. Earlier this week oil broke through the previous nominal high of $103.76 set back in 1980.
Gasoline, heating oil prices surge
The other major energy commodities also rocketed higher. Heating oil surged 14 cents to $2.93 per gallon, unleaded gasoline jumped 10 cents to $2.63 per gallon and natural gas climbed 37 cents to $9.72 per million BTUs.
And once again, OPEC repeated its oft-stated rationale that "the markets are well supplied," Bloomberg News reported, arguing that speculators and investors seeking to buy oil as a long-term asset and as an inflation hedge, are primarily behind oil's climb to the stratosphere. And once again, traders and other oil buyers acted as if there won't be enough oil to meet global demand at some point in the months ahead.
Global oil demand in 2008 will total 87.6 million barrels per day, about 200,000 barrels less than an initial 2008 estimate, due to slowing global economic growth, the International Energy Agency announced Wednesday.
The IEA said demand for transportation fuels in the eastern U.S. and other developed nations is slowing. However, the IEA added that projections for robust economic growth in China and the Middle East will continue to help support oil prices in 2008.
Oil fell 42 cents to $92.36 per barrel in mid-day Wednesday trading.
"Weaker projections for global economic growth are offset by low stocks, forecast cold weather in the U.S. and parts of Asia, supply disruptions (Nigeria/North Sea) and concern about Venezuelan supplies. Products have underperformed crude, leading to weak refining margins," the IEA stated.
Existing oil field output is declining about 4.5% annually, but new fields are making up for that production decline, a study by Cambridge Energy Research Associates concludes, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. (Subscription required.)
The annual decline from existing fields is about 4 million barrels per day -- about the amount oil No. 4 oil producer Iran produces per day -- with new fields offsetting the loses. The study is based on data from 811 fields, The Journal reported.
Depletion rates are one measure that oil sector analysts use to gauge current productivity, proven reserves that can be extracted, and probable future production output.
The measure also provides evidence for the ongoing debate in oil circles regarding the ultimate size of oil supplies -- with exploration bulls arguing that oil is decades away from a production top, and others, peak oil theorists, arguing that global oil production is likely to peak in the decade ahead, if not sooner. The debate is complicated by the fact that reliable production data on field-by-field production is not available from several key oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.
Oil plummeted $2.38 to $89.52 in early trading Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Agency announced that weekly crude oil inventories rose 4.3 million barrels to 287.1 million barrels, well above the 1.25 million barrel increase consensus estimate.
However, despite the prospect of a U.S. recession that could lower oil demand, the International Energy Agency maintained its 2008 global oil demand forecast at 87.8 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from 2007, the organization announced Wednesday in a statement.
Still, the IEA qualified its 2008 oil demand projection by saying the estimate would be adjusted downward if evidence indicated the U.S. economy continues to slow.
Concerning top picks for 2008, those assertive investors who can tolerate moderate/high risk should consider Transocean (NYSE: RIG). Transocean is favored here because it fits the investment theme of well-capitalized, experienced companies with long-term global trends in the company's favor. Transocean offers deepwater drilling services in the world's major offshore oil-producing regions, including Africa, Asia, Brazil, Canada, India, Middle East, Gulf of Mexico, and the North Sea -- and demand for drilling services is unlikely to decline in the immediate years ahead. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $84.
For those in need of a safer, large-cap play, consider Boeing (NYSE: BA), which boasts a solid commercial airline order book. Boeing is expected to win its global aviation battle with European rival Airbus, and in the process, transform flight as the 21st century progresses. Boeing's ace in the ongoing battle? The 787 Dreamliner, a super-efficient aircraft that will give airlines the profit margins they need and passengers the creature comforts/amenities they require in the digital age. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $58.
DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
An OPEC official said Friday the cartel may meet to boost output ahead of its September 2008 meeting if crude oil prices keep rising, Reuters reported Friday. 
As serious as the oil issue is in the United States, the west, and globally, considering its impact on economic development, circumstances could become even more challenging, in the quarters ahead, if present trends continue. 
Oil prices briefly jumped above $107 Thursday morning on news that saboteurs had blown up a major Iraqi export pipeline, 
Oil fell $1.02 to $100.82 per barrel Monday morning as traders/investors continued to lock-in profits and Saudi Arabia underscored its plans to boost production capacity, 
Global oil demand in 2008 will total 87.6 million barrels per day, about 200,000 barrels less than an initial 2008 estimate, due to slowing global economic growth, the International Energy Agency 
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