When my wife and I were in Europe a few years ago, we saw the "Smart Cars," vehicles so small that they look like they could have come off an assembly line at a toy plant. The reason we were told that they were so popular in Europe was that gas was expensive and people there did not need to drive huge distances over crowded highways. Well, I thought these sort of vehicles would never sell in the U.S. where we like our cars as wide and free as freeway at the crack of dawn.
Thanks to $4 gas, my theory has been proven wrong.
General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) may start producing the Chevrolet Beat in the U.S., a vehicle which according to Bloomberg News is more than a foot shorter than any other vehicle and whose 40-mile-per-hour fuel efficiency is only topped by hybrids. The new service points out that the the automaker has little choice because its current market value is SMALLER than Matchbox car maker Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) and a 10th of what it was in 2000. It only took GM billions of dollars in losses but hey better late than never, right?
Don't get be wrong. I have nothing against the Chevrolet Beat. Judging from the pictures I have seen online. it looks okay, not my cup of tea, but then again that's why we have chocolate and vanilla. Thanks to Al Gore, I understand about global warming and feel guilty that I own the small SUV that I drive. Nonetheless, the Chevrolet Beat and other cars like it scare me.
Almost on cue, following oil's $12 rise in two days to $134, the International Energy Agency said the world needs to invest an additional $45 trillion in the decades ahead to vastly expand both nuclear power and wind power capacity to meet global energy needs.
Strictly speaking, the IEA's call to action was rooted in reducing the world's greenhouse gas emissions and achieving what it argues will be "a clean, clever, energy future" and not to move away from oil or fossil fuels solely on cost grounds. (pdf)
Still, the report's 2050 ETP Baseline scenario projects that CO2 emissions will rise by 130% and oil demand will rise by 70% - - the latter total being equal to five times Saudi Arabia's current oil production. If the IEA's oil projection is correct, that would suggest additional large increases in the price of oil in the decades ahead - - on top of oil's more than 400% price rise since 2001.
Clean coal has hit speed bump on the path to the nation's cleaner energy future.
The United States Government has canceled support for a clean coal demonstration project after the project's development costs nearly doubled, to $1.8 billion, citing the need to limit taxpayer exposure, according to a New York Timesreport.
Further, more than a decade into the research process, it remains an unanswered question whether the clean coal technology -- capturing and injecting carbon dioxide back into the ground -- can be executed in a safe and cost-effective manner.
Among other hurdles, scientists need to determine which soil formations are most environmentally appropriate for holding and organically processing the carbon dioxide, and that don't contain the risk of dioxide bubbling back to the surface, or polluting ground water.
If you'd said a hundred years ago that the offspring of John D. Rockefeller would lead the charge for improved corporate governance, social responsibility, and an end to energy dependence and global warming, a lot of people would have laughed. But Neva Rockefeller Goodwin and Peter O'Neill, descendants of John D. Rockefeller, are pushing for change at Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).
Three resolutions supported by the family have no chance of passing, according to the New York Times. One asks Exxon Mobil to study the impact of global warming on poor countries and another asks it to reduce its emissions. A third would encourage it to spend more money on research into renewable energy sources.
The resolution most likely to pass seeks to separate the role of chairman and CEO, stripping imperial executive Rex Tillerson of a chunk of his power. (To get an idea of how he runs the company from a corporate governance perspective, check out Robert Monks' book Corpocracy. )The Economistdescribes Exxon's annual meeting as "a vigorous exercise in doing the minimum required by the law." The Rockefeller's and others are looking to change that.
Operationally, the change would probably have no impact on the company's strategy or value. But in the long run, good corporate governance and stewardship of shareholder assets can be key contributors to total return.
As was reported in AP online, "Members of the Rockefeller family are pressuring Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) to focus more on renewable energy. The family members, who say they are the oil giant's longest continuous shareholders, say Exxon is too focused on short-term gains from sky-high oil prices. They also argue splitting the roles of chairman and CEO will help the company be more flexible in the future."
Last time I checked, companies had a responsibility to provide value for shareholders, and no one has done it better than the oil giant. It has been producing record earnings quarter after quarter, and that is exactly what it is supposed to do. Corporations are not supposed to be politically correct organizations that throw money around at the latest fad. Maybe Exxon doesn't believe that there is a global warming problem? Or maybe it wants to see a lot more scientific evidence of the problem before committing billions and billions of dollars to research. If I were a shareholder, I would want management to take the exact approach that it has been taking. The fact that it is the most profitable company in the world means something. It should be commended for providing shareholder value.
In fact, Bloomberg has an article that says that ocean cooling will stop global warming. Moreover, the article indeed mentions that the authors tried to spin the article because of Exxon. "We thought a lot about the way to present this because we don't want it to be turned around in the wrong way," Keenlyside said. "I hope it doesn't become a message of Exxon Mobil and other skeptics."
Sounds to me that they are right to be skeptical.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/1/08
While Al Gore is busy preaching about global warming and environmentalists around the world hail ethanol as a solution to the "global warming" problem, the less fortunate, poorer countries in the world are in the midst of political turmoil as citizens riot and protest over soaring food prices.
As reported by Marketwatch: "In Egypt, headline inflation jumped to 14.4% in March, with the pace of food price rises soaring to 20.5% year-on-year from 16.8% in February. In addition, the country is suffering from shortages of bread, which is heavily subsidized by the government."
As global demand for soft commodities soars, Egypt, like many other countries, is confronting surging food prices, which have stirred popular discontent and demonstrations." We have seen demonstrations as well in Haiti, and we all know about surging food inflation in China. Countries like India, Vietnam and Cambodia, have limited rice exports as well. Why? Because farmers, heavily subsidized, have turned over crops in order to grow corn for ethanol production. Funny how environmentalists say climate change is a problem that in 25-30 years could cause significant destruction to the earth. Of course global hunger and starvation could cause more havoc, in the very near term, but they don't mention that.
Coming soon to investor email and mail boxes will be annual reports and proxy voting materials, complete with this year's shareholder resolutions. Hot topics this annual meeting season include the ever popular "say-on-pay." Shareholders are incensed that average or even sub-par executive performance and decision making is being handsomely rewarded with gigantic salaries and perks while they make due with crumbs. According to a recent article in CFO Magazine, 76 shareholder proposals dealing with executive compensation have made it onto the ballot.
Also on many ballots are shareholder resolutions dealing with socially responsible investing, particularly on matters revolving around the issue of global warming and/or climate change. So far, 56 shareholder resolutions have made it onto ballots. At least nine companies have taken steps to negate the need for such shareholder resolutions by rolling out policies addressing how the companies will cut back on greenhouses emissions and otherwise "go green."
As this is a presidential election year, there are at least 50 shareholder resolutions to force companies to disclose political contributions. These resolutions probably won't gain the necessary traction to force any action, but any resolution favoring greater corporate transparency is to shareholders' advantage.
New this year are numerous resolutions requesting senior management to disclose a company's exposure to subprime mortgage losses and secondary purchases in the mortgage market. This is a hot topic among investors right now, and many pension fund investors have taken hits. Look for union members to pressure their pension funds manangers on this one.
While getting grilled by opportunistic lawmakers on Capitol Hill, about soaring gas prices and how senior executives are able to live with themselves knowing they are making such large profits, J.S. Simon, CEO of Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), let the cat out of the bag. Responding to questions from Rep. Edward Markey as to why Exxon hasn't invested in alternative energy, the AP reported the following exchange:
"Why is Exxon Mobil resisting the renewable revolution," asked Markey.
Simon said his company, which earned $40 billion last year, had provided $100 million on research into climate change at Stanford University, but that current alternative energy technologies "just do not have an appreciable impact" in addressing "the challenge we're trying to meet."
Yes, you did read the headline right, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) is hoping to cash in from the growing demand in hybrid cars. I know what you are thinking... ExxonMobil and hybrid cars don't exactly sound right in the same sentence, but when you think about it, it makes perfect sense. ExxonMobil loves cash, and if they see business potential in hybrid cars you can be sure they are going to go after their fair share.
While the hybrid market has been steadily growing, it is still a very small percentage of overall vehicle sales, but ExxonMobil thinks that hybrid popularity is going to grow at a quicker pace that the government is currently estimating.
According to Jim Harris, president of ExxonMobil's chemical division, "We are interested in good business opportunities, and that is what this is." While it is true that ExxonMobil's fascination with hybrids is due to the money-making potential, it is still good to see interest from the same company that held out so many years claiming that fossil fuels were having no impact on global warming.
With all the hysteria about global warming and the impact that it will have on the globe, I found it quite funny that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported yesterday that we just experienced the coldest winter since 2001. Hey Al Gore -- how can that be? I remember when I was growing up, in the mid- 1970's, Newsweek magazine had a cover story about the beginning of the ice age. Amazing what can happen in 25 years. We can go from an ice age, to global warming. Not bad.
"In the contiguous United States, the average winter temperature was 33.2°F (0.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century average – yet still ranks as the coolest since 2001. It was the 54th coolest winter since national records began in 1895. "
Why not ask the Chinese about global warming? They just experience a horribly snowy winter which has been a major cause of inflation. Extreme cold temperatures were the norm this winter. Over the last 150 years or so the global mean temperature has increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius. This small amount of warming is not unusual, and falls well within the range of variation for both warming a cooling.
Sometimes executives can put their foot in their mouths, but calling global warming "a crock of s**t," goes beyond that. GM (NYSE: GM)'s Vice Chairman Bob Lutz recently expressed that opinion on his own (not reflective of GM), but it's still being hailed as idiotic on plenty of forums and blog posts from around the world this week.
Lutz had to fire off a blog post of his own to defend his words, but it doesn't matter. He said what he said, and to the ever-growing ecologically astute crowd that's running from GM's gas-hogging SUVs into Toyotas and Hondas, his comments only strengthen what many think of GM: a major contributor to global warming through its huge vehicles for all those Suburban soccer moms and masculine Hummer men.
Now, Lutz did repair his words as best he could in his defense, saying that: "General Motors is dedicated to the removal of cars and trucks from the environmental equation, period. And, believe it or don't: So am I! It's the right thing to do, for us, for you and, yes, for the planet. My goal is to take the automotive industry out of the debate entirely."
It's true that GM has made great strides in trying to revolve its product portfolio around more eco-friendly vehicles, but it still has a long way to go. If it can really make a concept like the Volt work on a mass scale, the recognition GM will receive will go a long way, regardless of lessening dependence on foreign oil or helping curb global warming. Customers will take notice.
Most investors are aware that China's surging growth and increasing energy use have helped push oil to +$90 per barrel near-record highs. But what many probably don't know is that China's double-digit GDP growth is forcing up the price of another major energy source: coal.
The price of coal -- the most plentiful energy resource -- is rising at an alarming rate: Asia prices are up more than 30% this year, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday(subscription required), due mostly to China's net importer status. China had been a net exporter of coal, but in mid-2007 it imported coal for the first time. Coal is trading above $125 per metric ton. In 2003 it traded at about $25 per metric ton. Since January 2007 alone, coal is up more than 140%.
U.S. coal suppliers have benefited from the run-up: Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) is up about 90% since August 2007; ACI was down about $1.50 to $53.32 in Tuesday afternoon trading. Meanwhile, Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) is up about 45% since August 2007; BTU fell 40 cents to $56.12 on Tuesday afternoon.
Within the next three years, the federal government is expected to enact legislation capping carbon output levels for U.S. businesses. U.S. companies will either have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by a certain percentage, to be determined later, or buy carbon offset credits from businesses that have reduced their carbon output in excess of their required minimum. Why is this a problem for investors? Once the federal carbon caps are in place, carbon offset credits will be much more expensive to purchase. Companies with excessive carbon outputs will pay a steep price for carbon credits.
Why don't companies take a more proactive approach and purchase carbon offset credits now when the price is much lower? Unfortunately, the carbon credit market is presently completely unregulated. There is no standardized system for measuring carbon reduction amounts nor is there any way to verify the legitimacy of such carbon credits as do exist. Companies that wish to market themselves as "green" may voluntarily participate in various carbon reduction efforts, such as reforestation projects. But there is no guarantee that the federal carbon cap program will recognize those efforts once mandatory caps are in place.
Many of the same problems exist with Renewable Energy Certificates (REC). There is no national registry of who owns what RECs, no verification as to whether the energy is actually generated from clean energy sources. There is no standardized method to convert RECs into carbon offset credits. In the next 3-4 years, all investors in all types of companies will be forced to consider carbon output numbers as one more factor in the due diligence process.
On the heels of Cambridge Energy Research Associates study arguing that new oil finds are replacing declining production at existing oil fields, a BP economist said the world is more likely to switch away from oil as opposed to running out of the commodity in the decades ahead, Reuters reported.
BP plc (ADR) (NYSE: BP) Special Economic Advisor Peter Davies also told ministers from Britain's Parliament that world oil production is likely to peak -- but not due to any "peak oil" scenario involving declining recoverable supplies and/or declining production -- but rather due to declining demand, Reuters reported.
"I think we will run out of demand before we run out of supply," Davies said, Reuters reported. "There's a distinct possibility that global oil consumption could peak as a result of climate policies."
Financial Timescolumnist Martin Wolf, an economist, poses the question, "Will CO2 emissions limits lead to a zero-sum global economy?" – an economy characterized by stagnant (or declining) incomes, and armed conflict among nations?
Wolf argues that increased energy consumption per capita, primarily oil from fossil fuel, has been a key causal factor in creating the plus-sum economic world we live in, which he calls the positive-sum economy. Or in other words, rising energy consumption has helped produce rising productivity / real incomes / wealth, and the expanding global economy that we know today.
In addition, Wolf further argues that rising energy consumption transformed politics -- assisting both the birth of democratic politics at home and more-consensual foreign relations among states -- by increasing the size of the economic pie. Elites in a country, Wolf argues, became more willing to tolerate the enfranchisement of the masses because it was in the elites' economic interest to do so: i.e. that energy consumption created a more-productive (and more-valuable) citizenry with higher incomes.
Internationally, a nation's gains from the increased trade that characterizes the high-energy consumption era far exceed its gains from making war with another nation: the plus-sum global economy that trade produces supports today's norm of trade as opposed to the limited-sum world's norm of conflict and war.